This report discusses the findings and recommendations made in the Financial Sector Assessment Program for Turkey in the area of financial system stability. The assessment identified some important priorities for further improvement in the policy framework and in implementation. Steps are recommended to raise the effectiveness of financial supervision, enhance governance arrangements, strengthen systemic risk identification and the coordination of macroprudential policies, lower systemic liquidity risks, and address current gaps in crisis management arrangements. A stronger role for the Financial Stability Committee would support more coordinated and effective systemic risk oversight and management.
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
In a recently released New York Fed staff report, we present a forward-looking monitoring program to identify and track time-varying sources of systemic risk.
This paper presents the annual survey of international capital market developments and prospects. It summarizes recent developments in capital market flows and asset prices, including the initial impact of the Middle East crisis, and reviews the main ongoing structural changes in financial markets. A sharp fall in net investment in foreign securities by Japanese institutions in 1990, in the face of narrowing interest rate differentials and, in some cases, the need to cover losses stemming from the fall in the Japanese stock market. In contrast, the importance of net direct investment outflows as a counterpart to the current account surplus began increasing as from 1989. The crisis in the Middle East resulted in a further tightening of market conditions, especially for less creditworthy borrowers. A general preference for safer and more liquid financial instruments was reflected in increased spreads between corporate and government securities on national markets and between private sector Eurobonds and government securities denominated in the same currency on international markets.
Turkey stands at a crossroad after a decade of adjustment to its severe debt crisis in the late 1970s. This volume brings together a group of contributors who discuss the consequences of this transition and the likely pains for the future.
Why stable banking systems are so rare Why are banking systems unstable in so many countries—but not in others? The United States has had twelve systemic banking crises since 1840, while Canada has had none. The banking systems of Mexico and Brazil have not only been crisis prone but have provided miniscule amounts of credit to business enterprises and households. Analyzing the political and banking history of the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil through several centuries, Fragile by Design demonstrates that chronic banking crises and scarce credit are not accidents. Calomiris and Haber combine political history and economics to examine how coalitions of politicians, bankers, and other interest groups form, why they endure, and how they generate policies that determine who gets to be a banker, who has access to credit, and who pays for bank bailouts and rescues. Fragile by Design is a revealing exploration of the ways that politics inevitably intrudes into bank regulation.
Using a multi-country panel of banks, we study whether better capitalized banks experienced higher stock returns during the financial crisis. We differentiate among various types of capital ratios: the Basel risk-adjusted ratio; the leverage ratio; the Tier I and Tier II ratios; and the tangible equity ratio. We find several results: (i) before the crisis, differences in capital did not have much impact on stock returns; (ii) during the crisis, a stronger capital position was associated with better stock market performance, most markedly for larger banks; (iii) the relationship between stock returns and capital is stronger when capital is measured by the leverage ratio rather than the risk-adjusted capital ratio; (iv) higher quality forms of capital, such as Tier 1 capital and tangible common equity, were more relevant.
From the late 1990s, the spectacular growth of a secondary market for credit through derivatives has been matched by the emergence of mathematical modelling analysing the credit risk embedded in these contracts. This book aims to provide a broad and deep overview of this modelling, covering statistical analysis and techniques, modelling of default of both single and multiple entities, counterparty risk, Gaussian and non-Gaussian modelling, and securitisation. Both reduced-form and firm-value models for the default of single entities are considered in detail, with extensive discussion of both their theoretical underpinnings and practical usage in pricing and risk. For multiple entity modelling, the now notorious Gaussian copula is discussed with analysis of its shortcomings, as well as a wide range of alternative approaches including multivariate extensions to both firm-value and reduced form models, and continuous-time Markov chains. One important case of multiple entities modelling - counterparty risk in credit derivatives - is further explored in two dedicated chapters. Alternative non-Gaussian approaches to modelling are also discussed, including extreme-value theory and saddle-point approximations to deal with tail risk. Finally, the recent growth in securitisation is covered, including house price modelling and pricing models for asset-backed CDOs. The current credit crisis has brought modelling of the previously arcane credit markets into the public arena. Lipton and Rennie with their excellent team of contributors, provide a timely discussion of the mathematical modelling that underpins both credit derivatives and securitisation. Though technical in nature, the pros and cons of various approaches attempt to provide a balanced view of the role that mathematical modelling plays in the modern credit markets. This book will appeal to students and researchers in statistics, economics, and finance, as well as practitioners, credit traders, and quantitative analysts
In recent years, revelations of grand corruption and the plunder of state assets have led to greater scrutiny of financial relationships with politically exposed persons (PEPs) senior government officials and their family members and close associates. Notwithstanding the efforts by many financial institutions and regulatory authorities to prevent corrupt PEPs from entering and using the financial system to launder the proceeds of corruption, there has been an overall failure in the effective implementation of international standards on PEPs. Implementation of an effective PEP regime is a critical component in the prevention and detection of transfers of proceeds of crime and, therefore, ultimately in the process of recovering them. 'Politically Exposed Persons: Preventive Measures for the Banking Sector' is designed to help banks and regulatory authorities address the risks posed by PEPs and prevent corrupt PEPs from using domestic and international financial systems to launder the proceeds of corruption. The book provides recommendations and good practices aimed at improving compliance with international standards and increasing supervisory effectiveness. It is an important tool for individuals, governments, financial and private sector companies, and international organizations involved in developing and implementing standards aimed at fighting corruption and money laundering, and trying to recover stolen assets and the proceeds of corruption.
