The Future of Oil and Fiscal Sustainability in the GCC Region

The Future of Oil and Fiscal Sustainability in the GCC Region

Author: Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2020-02-06

Total Pages: 55

ISBN-13: 1513525905

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The oil market is undergoing fundamental change. New technologies are increasing the supply of oil from old and new sources, while rising concerns over the environment are seeing the world gradually moving away from oil. This spells a significant challenge for oil-exporting countries, including those of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) who account for a fifth of the world’s oil production. The GCC countries have recognized the need to reduce their reliance on oil and are all implementing reforms to diversify their economies as well as fiscal and external revenues. Nevertheless, as global oil demand is expected to peak in the next two decades, the associated fiscal imperative could be both larger and more urgent than implied by the GCC countries’ existing plans.


Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices

Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices

Author: Mr.Aasim M. Husain

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-07-14

Total Pages: 41

ISBN-13: 151357227X

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The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.


Stress Testing at the IMF

Stress Testing at the IMF

Author: Mr.Tobias Adrian

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2020-02-05

Total Pages: 73

ISBN-13: 1513520741

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This paper explains specifics of stress testing at the IMF. After a brief section on the evolution of stress tests at the IMF, the paper presents the key steps of an IMF staff stress test. They are followed by a discussion on how IMF staff uses stress tests results for policy advice. The paper concludes by identifying remaining challenges to make stress tests more useful for the monitoring of financial stability and an overview of IMF staff work program in that direction. Stress tests help assess the resilience of financial systems in IMF member countries and underpin policy advice to preserve or restore financial stability. This assessment and advice are mainly provided through the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). IMF staff also provide technical assistance in stress testing to many its member countries. An IMF macroprudential stress test is a methodology to assess financial vulnerabilities that can trigger systemic risk and the need of systemwide mitigating measures. The definition of systemic risk as used by the IMF is relevant to understanding the role of its stress tests as tools for financial surveillance and the IMF’s current work program. IMF stress tests primarily apply to depository intermediaries, and, systemically important banks.


Saving Oil and Gas in the Gulf

Saving Oil and Gas in the Gulf

Author: Glada Lahn

Publisher: Chatham House (Formerly Riia)

Published: 2015-07-30

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9781862032910

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The waste of oil and gas in the Gulf erodes economic resilience and increases security risks. This is the first report to offer practical recommendations that address the key challenges of governance, political commitment, and market incentives from the perspectives of member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE).


The Changing Energy Landscape in the Gulf

The Changing Energy Landscape in the Gulf

Author: Gawdat Bahgat

Publisher:

Published: 2015

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9783940924643

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Extreme fluctuations in oil prices (such as the dramatic fall from mid-2014 into 2015) raise important strategic questions for both importers and exporters. In this volume, specialists from the US, the Middle East, Europe and Asia examine the rapidly evolving dynamic in the energy landscape, including renewable and nuclear power, challenges to producers including the shale revolution, and legal issues._x000B_Each chapter provides in-depth analysis and clear policy recommendations.


Blind Spot

Blind Spot

Author: Khaled Elgindy

Publisher: Brookings Institution Press

Published: 2019-04-02

Total Pages: 288

ISBN-13: 0815731566

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A critical examination of the history of US-Palestinian relations The United States has invested billions of dollars and countless diplomatic hours in the pursuit of Israeli-Palestinian peace and a two-state solution. Yet American attempts to broker an end to the conflict have repeatedly come up short. At the center of these failures lay two critical factors: Israeli power and Palestinian politics. While both Israelis and Palestinians undoubtedly share much of the blame, one also cannot escape the role of the United States, as the sole mediator in the process, in these repeated failures. American peacemaking efforts ultimately ran aground as a result of Washington’s unwillingness to confront Israel’s ever-deepening occupation or to come to grips with the realities of internal Palestinian politics. In particular, the book looks at the interplay between the U.S.-led peace process and internal Palestinian politics—namely, how a badly flawed peace process helped to weaken Palestinian leaders and institutions and how an increasingly dysfunctional Palestinian leadership, in turn, hindered prospects for a diplomatic resolution. Thus, while the peace process was not necessarily doomed to fail, Washington’s management of the process, with its built-in blind spot to Israeli power and Palestinian politics, made failure far more likely than a negotiated breakthrough. Shaped by the pressures of American domestic politics and the special relationship with Israel, Washington’s distinctive “blind spot” to Israeli power and Palestinian politics has deep historical roots, dating back to the 1917 Balfour Declaration and the British Mandate. The size of the blind spot has varied over the years and from one administration to another, but it is always present.


Energy and Environmental Challenges to Security

Energy and Environmental Challenges to Security

Author: Stephen Stec

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2009-01-29

Total Pages: 455

ISBN-13: 1402094515

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On 21 November 2007 the grand and elegant Delegates Hall of the Hungarian Parliament was the scene of the opening of a conference to discuss some of the most pressing issues of the day, those related to our unending thirst for energy, its environmental consequences, and the challenges that these bear on security. Over the next 3 days scientists, parliamentarians and their guests confronted, challenged, teased and cajoled each other in a NATO Advanced Research Workshop (ARW) entitled “Energy and Environmental Challenges to Security,” affirming that knowledge and public service hold the keys to solving our greatest challenges. The magnitude of the security challenge was confirmed while this volume was being prepared. In mid-2008, the International Energy Agency issued a report concluding that US$45 trillion would be needed over the next half century to prevent energy shortages and greenhouse gas emissions from undermining global economic growth. But lest such large numbers cause us all to shrug, this volume brings attention to some of the more manageable aspects of the environment and energy security challenge – from addressing conflict resources such as illegal timber that contribute to corruption and regional instability, to means and mechanisms to enable the diversification of energy supplies, to environmental risk reduction strategies for particular installations. The participants in the Hungarian Parliament building were atypical for a NATO Advanced Research Workshop.


Kings and Presidents

Kings and Presidents

Author: Bruce Riedel

Publisher: Brookings Institution Press

Published: 2019-03-12

Total Pages: 273

ISBN-13: 0815737165

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An insider's account of the often-fraught U.S.-Saudi relationship Saudi Arabia and the United States have been partners since 1943, when President Roosevelt met with two future Saudi monarchs. Subsequent U.S. presidents have had direct relationships with those kings and their successors—setting the tone for a special partnership between an absolute monarchy with a unique Islamic identity and the world's most powerful democracy. Although based in large part on economic interests, the U.S.-Saudi relationship has rarely been smooth. Differences over Israel have caused friction since the early days, and ambiguities about Saudi involvement—or lack of it—in the September 11 terrorist attacks against the United States continue to haunt the relationship. Now, both countries have new, still-to be-tested leaders in President Trump and King Salman. Bruce Riedel for decades has followed these kings and presidents during his career at the CIA, the White House, and Brookings. This book offers an insider's account of the U.S.-Saudi relationship, with unique insights. Using declassified documents, memoirs by both Saudis and Americans, and eyewitness accounts, this book takes the reader inside the royal palaces, the holy cities, and the White House to gain an understanding of this complex partnership.


The Economic Consequences of the Gulf War

The Economic Consequences of the Gulf War

Author: Kamran Mofid

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2005-10-26

Total Pages: 200

ISBN-13: 1134939655

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The Iran-Iraq War were one of the longest and most devastating uninterrupted wars amongst modern nation states. It produced neither victor nor vanquished and left the regimes in both countries basically intact. However, it is clear that the domestic, regional and international repercussions of the war mean that 'going back' is not an option. Iraq owes too much to regain the lead it formerly held in economic performance and development levels. What then does reconstruction mean? In this book, Kamran Mofid counteracts the scant analysis to date of the economic consequences of the Gulf War by analysing its impact on both economies in terms of oil production, exports, foreign exchange earnings, non-defence foreign trade and agricultural performance. In the final section, Mofid brings together the component parts of the economic cost of the war to assign a dollar value to the devastation.