The Stambaugh Bias in Panel Predictive Regressions
The Stambaugh Bias in Panel Predictive Regressions

Author: Erik Hjalmarsson

Publisher:

Published: 2007

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13:

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This paper analyzes predictive regressions in a panel data setting. The standard fixed effects estimator suffers from a small sample bias, which is the analogue of the Stambaugh bias in time-series predictive regressions. Monte Carlo evidence shows that the bias and resulting size distortions can be severe. A new bias-corrected estimator is proposed, which is shown to work well in finite samples and to lead to approximately normally distributed t-statistics. Overall, the results show that the econometric issues associated with predictive regressions when using time-series data to a large extent also carry over to the panel case. The results are illustrated with an application to predictability in international stock indices.

The Stambaugh Bias in Panel Predictive Regressions
The Stambaugh Bias in Panel Predictive Regressions

Author: Erik Hjalmarsson

Publisher:

Published: 2007

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

"This paper analyzes predictive regressions in a panel data setting. The standard fixed effects estimator suffers from a small sample bias, which is the analogue of the Stambaugh bias in time-series predictive regressions. Monte Carlo evidence shows that the bias and resulting size distortions can be severe. A new bias-corrected estimator is proposed, which is shown to work well in finite samples and to lead to approximately normally distributed t-statistics. Overall, the results show that the econometric issues associated with predictive regressions when using time-series data to a large extent also carry over to the panel case. The results are illustrated with an application to predictability in international stock indices"--Federal Reserve Board web site.

Panel Methods for Finance
Panel Methods for Finance

Author: Marno Verbeek

Publisher: Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG

Published: 2021-10-25

Total Pages: 296

ISBN-13: 3110660733

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Financial data are typically characterised by a time-series and cross-sectional dimension. Accordingly, econometric modelling in finance requires appropriate attention to these two – or occasionally more than two – dimensions of the data. Panel data techniques are developed to do exactly this. This book provides an overview of commonly applied panel methods for financial applications, including popular techniques such as Fama-MacBeth estimation, one-way, two-way and interactive fixed effects, clustered standard errors, instrumental variables, and difference-in-differences. Panel Methods for Finance: A Guide to Panel Data Econometrics for Financial Applications by Marno Verbeek offers the reader: Focus on panel methods where the time dimension is relatively small A clear and intuitive exposition, with a focus on implementation and practical relevance Concise presentation, with many references to financial applications and other sources Focus on techniques that are relevant for and popular in empirical work in finance and accounting Critical discussion of key assumptions, robustness, and other issues related to practical implementation

Empirical Asset Pricing
Empirical Asset Pricing

Author: Wayne Ferson

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2019-03-26

Total Pages: 497

ISBN-13: 0262351307

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An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.

Handbook of Economic Forecasting
Handbook of Economic Forecasting

Author: Graham Elliott

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 2013-08-23

Total Pages: 667

ISBN-13: 0444627405

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The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. - Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications - Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications - Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics

Elements of Multivariate Time Series Analysis
Elements of Multivariate Time Series Analysis

Author: Gregory C. Reinsel

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2003-10-31

Total Pages: 384

ISBN-13: 9780387406190

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Now available in paperback, this book introduces basic concepts and methods useful in the analysis and modeling of multivariate time series data. It concentrates on the time-domain analysis of multivariate time series, and assumes univariate time series analysis, while covering basic topics such as stationary processes and their covariance matrix structure, vector AR, MA, and ARMA models, forecasting, least squares and maximum likelihood estimation for ARMA models, associated likelihood ratio testing procedures.

Bayesian Theory and Applications
Bayesian Theory and Applications

Author: Paul Damien

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Published: 2013-01-24

Total Pages: 717

ISBN-13: 0199695601

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This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field.

Cointegration and Long-Horizon Forecasting
Cointegration and Long-Horizon Forecasting

Author: Mr.Peter F. Christoffersen

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1997-05-01

Total Pages: 31

ISBN-13: 1451848137

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Imposing cointegration on a forecasting system, if cointegration is present, is believed to improve long-horizon forecasts. Contrary to this belief, at long horizons nothing is lost by ignoring cointegration when the forecasts are evaluated using standard multivariate forecast accuracy measures. In fact, simple univariate Box-Jenkins forecasts are just as accurate. Our results highlight a potentially important deficiency of standard forecast accuracy measures—they fail to value the maintenance of cointegrating relationships among variables—and we suggest alternatives that explicitly do so.

The Econometrics of Financial Markets
The Econometrics of Financial Markets

Author: John Y. Campbell

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2012-06-28

Total Pages: 630

ISBN-13: 1400830214

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The past twenty years have seen an extraordinary growth in the use of quantitative methods in financial markets. Finance professionals now routinely use sophisticated statistical techniques in portfolio management, proprietary trading, risk management, financial consulting, and securities regulation. This graduate-level textbook is intended for PhD students, advanced MBA students, and industry professionals interested in the econometrics of financial modeling. The book covers the entire spectrum of empirical finance, including: the predictability of asset returns, tests of the Random Walk Hypothesis, the microstructure of securities markets, event analysis, the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, the term structure of interest rates, dynamic models of economic equilibrium, and nonlinear financial models such as ARCH, neural networks, statistical fractals, and chaos theory. Each chapter develops statistical techniques within the context of a particular financial application. This exciting new text contains a unique and accessible combination of theory and practice, bringing state-of-the-art statistical techniques to the forefront of financial applications. Each chapter also includes a discussion of recent empirical evidence, for example, the rejection of the Random Walk Hypothesis, as well as problems designed to help readers incorporate what they have read into their own applications.