Brazil is at crossroads, emerging slowly from a historic recession that was preceded by a huge economic boom. Reasons for the historic bust following a boom are manifold. Policy mistakes were an important contributory factor, and included the pursuit of countercyclical policies, introduced to deal with the effects of the global financial crisis, beyond the point where they were helpful. More fundamentally, it reflects longstanding structural weaknesses plaguing the economy, that also help explain Brazil’s uninspiring growth performance over the past four decades.
Renowned economist Andrew Smithers offers prescriptive advice and economic theory on avoiding the next financial crisis In The Road to Recovery, Andrew Smithers—one of a handful of respected economists to have accurately predicted the most recent global financial crisis—argues that the neoclassical consensus governing global economic decision-making must be revised in order to avoid the next financial collapse. He argues that the current low interest rates and budget deficits have prevented the recession becoming a depression but that those policies cannot be continuously repeated and a new consensus for action must be found. He offers practical guidance on reducing government, household, and business debt; changing the economic incentives for the management class that currently inhibit long-term growth; and rebalancing national economies both internally and externally. Further, he explains how central bankers must broaden the economic theories that guide their decisions to include the major factors of debt and asset prices. Offers practical, real-world economic policies for restructuring and rebalancing the global economic system Presents a modern economic theory for preventing the next collapse Ideal for economists, investors, fund managers, and central bankers Written by an economist described by the legendary Barton Biggs as "one of the five best, most dispassionate, erudite analysts in the world" As the global economy continues the long climb out of recession, it's imperative that central bankers and other economic decision-makers not repeat the mistakes of the past. The Road to Recovery offers prescriptive guidance on redesigning an economic system that is healthy, stable, and beneficial to all.
Contents: (1) Background: Severity of the 2008-2009 Recession; Policy Responses to the Financial Crisis and Recession: Monetary Policy Actions; Fiscal Policy Actions; (2) Is Sustained Economic Recovery Underway?; (3) The Shape of Economic Recovery: Demand Side Problems?: Consumption Spending; Investment Spending; Net Exports; Supply Side Problems?; Policy Responses to Increase the Pace of Economic Recovery: The Case for More Fiscal Stimulus; The Case Against More Fiscal Stimulus; The Case Against More Monetary Stimulus; Economic Projections. This is a print on demand edition of an important, hard-to-find publication.
