With the application of the right policies, Indonesia could return to growth above 6%, and perhaps eventually reach the 7% target set by the new president. The government intends to double expenditure in the key areas of public works, transport and agriculture, and new plans include the construction of 2600 km of roads, 15 airports, 24 ports, 3258 km of railway and the addition of around 35,000 MW to the state electricity company’s current capacity. The investments to be made in infrastructure have the potential to boost the economy in both the short and long term. A shift to more investment and less consumption would help lead to more sustainable growth and insulate the country from external shocks. Already the numbers are starting to head in the right direction.
Although Chinese and global demand, low commodity prices and rising wages will continue to challenge trade growth in 2016, Indonesia remains on a positive trajectory. Rising domestic demand, increasing liberalization measures, improvements to the investment climate and a shift towards value-added production will bolster both exports and investment. At the same time, new trade agreements with the world's largest economies look set to drive long-term trade expansion. Prudent government policy, an ambitious reform agenda and rising recognition of the role of the private sector should help to keep investment and trade stable in 2016, and despite exports and growth have dipped in recent years, the country is well positioned to make the crucible transformation from a consumption- to investment-based economy.
This paper discusses key issues related to the Indonesian economy. Indonesia has weathered challenging economic conditions well. The economy has safely navigated the commodity price shocks, tightening financial conditions, and repeated bouts of turbulence in global financial markets, assisted by broadly appropriate macroeconomic policies. The Indonesian economy, however, is still facing headwinds. Against this backdrop, the 2015 Article IV consultation is focused on the need to manage short-term vulnerabilities and to boost potential growth in the medium-term. The challenge for Indonesia will be to follow through on the reforms that the government has already launched and undertake further macrocritical reforms to boost productivity and diversify growth, while maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability.
This report provides guidance on how Indonesia can consolidate gains in access to basic education and develop an education system that will support an economy in transition towards high-income status.
Analytical work on Indonesian macroeconomic and financial issues, with an overarching theme on building institutions and policies for prosperity and inclusive growth. The book begins with a 20-year economic overview by former Finance Minister Chatib Basri, with subsequent chapters covering diverse sectors of the economy as well as Indonesia’s place in the global economy.
In 2018 the Indonesian economy recorded a growth rate of 5.2%, the highest in five years. This was in spite of a slump in the rupiah and a trade imbalance, and took place against a backdrop of rising US interest rates and deteriorating trade relations between the world’s two biggest economies. The country’s emphasis on industrialisation and infrastructure development is laying the foundations for continued economic growth. Moreover, the archipelago’s growing middle class population, geographical position and human capital development agenda, alongside progress in free-trade agreements, make it a strong contender on the global economic stage. The country holds considerable potential for developing entrepreneurial and creative prowess, already being home to four unicorn startups. Investors have continued to look beyond traditional destinations, with emerging cities like Surabaya and Palembang showing strong possibilities for economic growth. Although the outcome of the April 2019 national election will determine the course of further infrastructure development and tax reforms, the future looks promising, with predictions of continued growth accompanied by stable inflation.
The presidency of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (2004–14) was a watershed in Indonesia's modern democratic history. Yudhoyono was not only the first Indonesian president to be directly elected, but also the first to be democratically re-elected. Coming to office after years of turbulent transition, he presided over a decade of remarkable political stability and steady economic growth. But other aspects of his rule have been the subject of controversy. While supporters view his presidency as a period of democratic consolidation and success, critics view it as a decade of stagnation and missed opportunities. This book is the first comprehensive attempt to evaluate both the achievements and the shortcomings of the Yudhoyono presidency. With contributions from leading experts on Indonesia's politics, economy and society, it assesses the Yudhoyono record in fields ranging from economic development and human rights, to foreign policy, the environment and the security sector.
Indonesia was founded on the ideal of the “Sovereignty of the People”, which suggests the pre-eminence of people’s rights to access, use and control land to support their livelihoods. Yet, many questions remain unresolved. How can the state ensure access to land for agriculture and housing while also supporting land acquisition for investment in industry and infrastructure? What is to be done about indigenous rights? Do registration and titling provide solutions? Is the land reform agenda — legislated but never implemented — still relevant? How should the land questions affecting Indonesia’s disappearing forests be resolved? The contributors to this volume assess progress on these issues through case studies from across the archipelago: from large-scale land acquisitions in Papua, to asset ownership in the villages of Sulawesi and Java, to tenure conflicts associated with the oil palm and mining booms in Kalimantan, Sulawesi and Sumatra. What are the prospects for the “people’s sovereignty” in regard to land?
This book investigates whether a power shift has taken place in the Asia-Pacific region since the end of the Cold War. By systematically examining the development of power dynamics in Asia-Pacific, it challenges the notion that a wealthier and militarily more powerful China is automatically turning the regional tides in its favour. With a special emphasis on Sino-US competition, the book explores the alleged linkage between the regional distribution of relevant material and immaterial capabilities, national power and the much-cited regional power shift. The book presents a novel concept for measuring power in international relations by outlining a composite index on aggregated power (CIAP) that includes 55 variables for 44 regional countries and covers a period of twenty years. Moreover, it develops a middle power theory that outlines the significance of middle powers in times of major power shifts. By addressing political, military and economic cooperation via a structured-focused comparison and by applying a comparative-historical analysis, the book analyses in depth the bilateral relations of six regional middle powers to Washington and Beijing.
Troubled Transit considers the situation of asylum seekers stuck in limbo in Indonesia from a number of perspectives. It presents not only the narratives of many transit migrants but also the perceptions of Indonesian authorities and of representatives of international and non-government organizations responsible for the care of transiting asylum seekers. Fascinated by the extraordinary and seemingly limitless resilience shown by asylum seekers during their often lengthy and dangerous journeys, the author highlights one particular fragment of their journeys — their time in Indonesia, which many expect to be the last stepping stone to a new life. While they long for their new life to unfold, most asylum seekers become embroiled in the complexities of living in transit. Indonesia, a vast archipelago of more than 17,000 islands, is more than a location where people spend time waiting; it is a nation state that interacts with transiting asylum seekers and formulates policies that have a profound impact on their experience in transit there. Troubled Transit tries to explain the complexities faced by the transiting migrants within the context of the Indonesian government and its political challenges, including its relationship with Australia. The Australia-centric view of recent asylum seeker issues has tended to ignore the larger socio-political context of the migratory routes and the perspectives of transit states towards asylum seekers stuck in transit. This book hopes to direct the Australia-centric gaze northwards to take Indonesian policies and policymaking into account, thereby giving Indonesia more relevance as a transit country and as an important partner in regional protection schemes and migration management. Even though some Indonesian policies and practices are less than favourable for asylum seekers, and even reprehensible from a human rights perspective, more attention must be paid to ongoing developments that impact on transiting asylum seekers in Indonesia if any of the hardships they suffer there are to be alleviated.
