Global Economic Uncertainties and Exchange Rate Shocks
Global Economic Uncertainties and Exchange Rate Shocks

Author: Eliphas Ndou

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2018-01-08

Total Pages: 509

ISBN-13: 3319622803

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This book examines the macroeconomic and regulatory impact of domestic and international shocks on the South African economy resulting from the 2009 financial crisis. It also assesses the impact of the US economy’s eventual recovery from the crisis and the prospect of higher US interest rates in future. Told in three parts, the book explores associations between economic growth, policy uncertainty and the key domestic and international transmission channels, and transmission effects, of global financial regulatory and domestic macro-economic uncertainties on subdued and volatile economic recovery, financial channels, lending rate margins, and credit growth. The book concludes by extending its focus to the role of US monetary policy, capital flows and rand/US dollar volatility on the South African economy.

Uncertainty, Financial Frictions and Nominal Rigidities: A Quantitative Investigation
Uncertainty, Financial Frictions and Nominal Rigidities: A Quantitative Investigation

Author: Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-09-29

Total Pages: 45

ISBN-13: 1484324013

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Are uncertainty shocks a major source of business cycle fluctuations? This paper studies the effect of a mean preserving shock to the variance of aggregate total factor productivity (macro uncertainty) and to the dispersion of entrepreneurs' idiosyncratic productivity (micro uncertainty) in a financial accelerator DSGE model with sticky prices. It explores the different mechanisms through which uncertainty shocks are propagated and amplified. The time series properties of macro and micro uncertainty are estimated using U.S. aggregate and firm-level data, respectively. While surprise increases in micro uncertainty have a larger impact on output than macro uncertainty, these account for a small (non-trivial) share of output volatility.

Aggregate Uncertainty and the Supply of Credit
Aggregate Uncertainty and the Supply of Credit

Author: Mr.Fabian Valencia

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-12-02

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13: 1475513933

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Recent studies show that uncertainty shocks have quantitatively important effects on the real economy. This paper examines one particular channel at work: the supply of credit. It presents a model in which a bank, even if managed by risk-neutral shareholders and subject to limited liability, can exhibit self-insurance, and thus loan supply contracts when uncertainty increases. This prediction is tested with the universe of U.S. commercial banks over the period 1984-2010. Identification of credit supply is achieved by looking at the differential response of banks according to their level of capitalization. Consistent with the theoretical predictions, increases in uncertainty reduce the supply of credit, more so for banks with lower levels of capitalization. These results are weaker for large banks, and are robust to controlling for the lending and capital channels of monetary policy, to different measures of uncertainty, and to breaking the dataset in subsamples. Quantitatively, uncertainty shocks are almost as important as monetary policy ones with regards to the effects on the supply of credit.

Uncertainty Shocks in Africa
Uncertainty Shocks in Africa

Author: Giuseppe T. Cirella

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2023-02-03

Total Pages: 244

ISBN-13: 303121885X

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This book explores in detail how African countries dealt with the pandemic and how it affected different aspects of different economies and social structures. Observing how human beings change the environment and, specifically, how population growth and urbanization negatively impact nature, recently shocked economies and social upheaval in Africa indicate a crossroads moment for the continent. The book further adds to the knowledge base of how to build a more robust Africa with sustainable solutions working in tandem with vibrant and robust economies. Commonsense social strategies go hand in hand with trackable shocked economies via first- and second-moment reactions. Uncertainty shocks, in this case, interrelate via an umbrella effect. The authors evaluate theories of impact shocks using a sustainable growth and change model. Finally, key topics incorporate new urban thinking for economic recovery, developing sustainable economies post-COVID-19, understanding social practices during a crisis, and developing community robustness via shock events. The book integrates an interdisciplinary approach to understanding how to best mitigate the COVID-19 crisis as well as reduce future shocks to the African continent. It raises vital questions connecting the effects of lockdown measures, crisis causation, and shock impacts most countries faced over the last two-year period. The answers to these questions are not limited to economists and sociologists, instead, they magnify to include policymakers and everyday people. The nature of this book is to help piece together solutions for preparedness, a stronger understanding of sound development, and a united and resilient Pan-Africanism to best handle future shock events.

State-space Models with Regime Switching
State-space Models with Regime Switching

Author: Chang-Jin Kim

Publisher: Mit Press

Published: 1999

Total Pages: 297

ISBN-13: 9780262112383

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Both state-space models and Markov switching models have been highly productive paths for empirical research in macroeconomics and finance. This book presents recent advances in econometric methods that make feasible the estimation of models that have both features. One approach, in the classical framework, approximates the likelihood function; the other, in the Bayesian framework, uses Gibbs-sampling to simulate posterior distributions from data.The authors present numerous applications of these approaches in detail: decomposition of time series into trend and cycle, a new index of coincident economic indicators, approaches to modeling monetary policy uncertainty, Friedman's "plucking" model of recessions, the detection of turning points in the business cycle and the question of whether booms and recessions are duration-dependent, state-space models with heteroskedastic disturbances, fads and crashes in financial markets, long-run real exchange rates, and mean reversion in asset returns.

International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis
International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis

Author: Laurent Ferrara

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2018-06-13

Total Pages: 300

ISBN-13: 3319790757

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This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.

Unequal We Stand
Unequal We Stand

Author: Jonathan Heathcote

Publisher: DIANE Publishing

Published: 2010-10

Total Pages: 61

ISBN-13: 1437934919

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The authors conducted a systematic empirical study of cross-sectional inequality in the U.S., integrating data from various surveys. The authors follow the mapping suggested by the household budget constraint from individual wages to individual earnings, to household earnings, to disposable income, and, ultimately, to consumption and wealth. They document a continuous and sizable increase in wage inequality over the sample period. Changes in the distribution of hours worked sharpen the rise in earnings inequality before 1982, but mitigate its increase thereafter. Taxes and transfers compress the level of income inequality, especially at the bottom of the distribution, but have little effect on the overall trend. Charts and tables. This is a print-on-demand publication; it is not an original.

Uncertainty Quantification in Computational Fluid Dynamics
Uncertainty Quantification in Computational Fluid Dynamics

Author: Hester Bijl

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2013-09-20

Total Pages: 347

ISBN-13: 3319008854

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Fluid flows are characterized by uncertain inputs such as random initial data, material and flux coefficients, and boundary conditions. The current volume addresses the pertinent issue of efficiently computing the flow uncertainty, given this initial randomness. It collects seven original review articles that cover improved versions of the Monte Carlo method (the so-called multi-level Monte Carlo method (MLMC)), moment-based stochastic Galerkin methods and modified versions of the stochastic collocation methods that use adaptive stencil selection of the ENO-WENO type in both physical and stochastic space. The methods are also complemented by concrete applications such as flows around aerofoils and rockets, problems of aeroelasticity (fluid-structure interactions), and shallow water flows for propagating water waves. The wealth of numerical examples provide evidence on the suitability of each proposed method as well as comparisons of different approaches.

The Secular Decline of the South African Manufacturing Sector
The Secular Decline of the South African Manufacturing Sector

Author: Nombulelo Gumata

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2020-11-10

Total Pages: 382

ISBN-13: 3030551482

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This book examines the global and domestic factors that have influenced the decline of South African manufacturing. Quantitative and econometric techniques are used to analyse the macroeconomic conditions that derive improved performance within the manufacturing sector. Empirical evidence is used to set out policy recommendations that would allow the South African National Development Plan to meet its objectives. This books aims to bring together analysis of industrial policy, competition policy, and merger remedies to produce a framework on how to preserve a competitive environment and support output, investment, and employment growth. It is relevant to those interested in African, development, and labour economics.