The Myth of Comoving Commodity Prices
The Myth of Comoving Commodity Prices

Author: Mr.Paul Cashin

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1999-12-01

Total Pages: 21

ISBN-13: 1451858329

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There is a common perception that the prices of unrelated commodities move together. This paper re-examines this notion, using a measure of comovement of economic time series called concordance. Concordance measures the proportion of time that the prices of two commodities are concurrently in the same boom period or same slump period. Using data on the prices of several unrelated commodities, the paper finds no evidence of comovement in commodity prices. The results carry an important policy implication, as the study provides no support for earlier claims of irrational trading behavior by participants in world commodity markets.

The Effects on Growth of Commodity Price Uncertainty and Shocks
The Effects on Growth of Commodity Price Uncertainty and Shocks

Author: Jan Dehn

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2000

Total Pages: 66

ISBN-13:

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The author estimates the effects on growth of commodity price shocks, and uncertainty within an established empirical growth model. Ex-post shocks, and ex-ante uncertainty have been treated in the empirical literature as if they were synonymous. But they are distinct concepts, and it is both theoretically, and empirically inappropriate to treat them as synonymous. He shows that the interaction between policy, and aid is robust to the inclusion of variables capturing commodity price movements. More important, his approach departs in three ways from earlier empirical studies of the subject: 1) It deals with issues of endogeneity, without incurring an excessive loss of efficiency. 2) It defines the dependent variable to allow an assessment of the longer-term implications of temporary trade shocks. 3) It imposes no priors on how commodity price movements affect growth, but compares and contrasts a range of competing shock, and uncertainty specifications. The author resolves the disagreement about the long-run effect of positive shocks on growth, finding that positive shocks have no long-run impact on growth (that windfalls from trade shocks do not translate into sustainable increases in income). He shows that negative shocks have large, highly significant, and negative effects on growth, but that commodity price uncertainty does not affect growth.

Commodities, Governance and Economic Development under Globalization
Commodities, Governance and Economic Development under Globalization

Author: Machiko Nissanke

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2010-01-20

Total Pages: 396

ISBN-13: 0230274021

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Alfred Maizels' work on commodity trade and prices documented trends in a major area of international economic relations. This book elaborates the ideas in the tradition of Maizels' contributons, and discusses and extends these theories in relation to current problems.

Primary Commodities and Economic Development
Primary Commodities and Economic Development

Author: Stephan Pfaffenzeller

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2016-08-12

Total Pages: 192

ISBN-13: 1317745361

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Our post-industrialised global economy has achieved spectacular success and pushed back poverty to an extent previously thought impossible. This success is ultimately based on the continued supply of both renewable and non-renewable resources. Will this supply of primary commodities remain sufficient to support global economic growth? Why are the gains for countries specialising on commodity production often so limited? Can commodity dependent countries diversify into other economic activities? Primary Commodities and Economic Development addresses the changing position of primary commodities in the world economy and investigates their importance for commodity exporting under-developed countries. The book commences with a review of the theoretical foundations for inter-dependence between commodity specialisation and economic underdevelopment. Having related the role of commodity exports and the commodity terms of trade to growth models relevant to developing economies, the discussion shifts to an in-depth review of the statistical properties of the commodity terms of trade. The review of commodity price trends at the global level is then rounded off with a series of country case studies showing the concrete threats and opportunities surrounding commodity specialization. This book will be of essential reading for those with an interest in development economics and international economics, as well as for scholars of natural resource and agricultural economics.

World Economic Outlook, May 2000
World Economic Outlook, May 2000

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2000-04-12

Total Pages: 308

ISBN-13: 9781557759368

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The World Economic Outlook, published twica a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, presents IMF staff economists analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term. Chapters give an overview of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, developing countries, and economies in transition to market; and address topics of pressing current interest. Annexes, boxes, charts, and an extensive statistical appendix augment the text.

Inflation Hedging for Long-Term Investors
Inflation Hedging for Long-Term Investors

Author: Mr.Shaun K. Roache

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2009-04-01

Total Pages: 39

ISBN-13: 1451872372

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Long-term investors face a common problem-how to maintain the purchasing power of their assets over time and achieve a level of real returns consistent with their investment objectives. While inflation-linked bonds and derivatives have been developed to hedge the effects of inflation, their limited supply and liquidity lead many investors to continue to rely on the indirect hedging properties of traditional asset classes. In this paper, we assess these properties over different time horizons, in the context of a diversified portfolio. Using a vector error correction model, we find that effective short-run hedges, such as commodities, may not work over longer horizons and that tactical asset allocation could enhance investment returns following inflation surprises.

Oil in the 21st Century
Oil in the 21st Century

Author: Robert Mabro

Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA

Published: 2006

Total Pages: 388

ISBN-13: 9780199207381

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Oil is hitting the headlines once again. The big increases in oil prices over the past two years are upsetting consumers and puzzling producers. The reasons are difficult to understand, since few people are familiar with the complex workings of the price regime for oil in international trade. It is said that sluggish investment is a major cause, but what are the reasons for inadequate investment in oil producing and refining plants during the last 20 years? Does oil have a future? We are told that oil production will soon peak because the rate of production is higher than replacement rates. Climate change problems are casting a shadow over the future of fossil fuels. There may, however, be a solution to the nefarious CO2 emissions in, for instance, technologies that sequestrate carbon. Oil's stronghold is the transport sector: cars, trucks, railway engines, planes, ships. The demand for oil would suffer a fatal blow if technical innovations in car engines make it possible to use an alternative fuel to petrol or diesel. New energy sources - wind, solar, tide, waves, geo-thermal - are both renewable and environment-friendly. Do they represent a threat to the future of oil? An international team of experts addresses these highly topical questions in this comprehensive volume.

Desynchronized
Desynchronized

Author: Mr.Serhan Cevik

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2011-12-01

Total Pages: 25

ISBN-13: 1463927207

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This paper investigates the empirical characteristics of business cycles and the extent of cyclical comovement in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, using various measures of synchronization for non-hydrocarbon GDP and constituents of aggregate demand during the period 1990-2010. By applying the Christiano-Fitzgerald asymmetric band-pass filter and a mean corrected concordance index, the paper identifies the degree of non-hydrocarbon business cycle synchronization?one of the main prerequisites for countries considering to establish a monetary union. The empirical results show low and heterogeneous synchronization in non-hydrocarbon business cycles across the GCC economies, and a decline in the degree of synchronicity in the 2000s, if Kuwait is excluded from the sample, partly because of divergent fiscal policies.