The More the Merrier? A Machine Learning Algorithm for Optimal Pooling of Panel Data
The More the Merrier? A Machine Learning Algorithm for Optimal Pooling of Panel Data

Author: Marijn A. Bolhuis

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2020-02-28

Total Pages: 21

ISBN-13: 1513529978

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

We leverage insights from machine learning to optimize the tradeoff between bias and variance when estimating economic models using pooled datasets. Specifically, we develop a simple algorithm that estimates the similarity of economic structures across countries and selects the optimal pool of countries to maximize out-of-sample prediction accuracy of a model. We apply the new alogrithm by nowcasting output growth with a panel of 102 countries and are able to significantly improve forecast accuracy relative to alternative pools. The algortihm improves nowcast performance for advanced economies, as well as emerging market and developing economies, suggesting that machine learning techniques using pooled data could be an important macro tool for many countries.

Predicting Fiscal Crises: A Machine Learning Approach
Predicting Fiscal Crises: A Machine Learning Approach

Author: Klaus-Peter Hellwig

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-05-27

Total Pages: 66

ISBN-13: 1513573586

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

In this paper I assess the ability of econometric and machine learning techniques to predict fiscal crises out of sample. I show that the econometric approaches used in many policy applications cannot outperform a simple heuristic rule of thumb. Machine learning techniques (elastic net, random forest, gradient boosted trees) deliver significant improvements in accuracy. Performance of machine learning techniques improves further, particularly for developing countries, when I expand the set of potential predictors and make use of algorithmic selection techniques instead of relying on a small set of variables deemed important by the literature. There is considerable agreement across learning algorithms in the set of selected predictors: Results confirm the importance of external sector stock and flow variables found in the literature but also point to demographics and the quality of governance as important predictors of fiscal crises. Fiscal variables appear to have less predictive value, and public debt matters only to the extent that it is owed to external creditors.

KI 2022: Advances in Artificial Intelligence
KI 2022: Advances in Artificial Intelligence

Author: Ralph Bergmann

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2022-09-16

Total Pages: 243

ISBN-13: 3031157915

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 45th German Conference on Artificial Intelligence, KI 2022, held in September 2022. The 12 full and 5 short papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 51 submissions. Additionally, five abstracts of invited talks are included. As well-established annual conference series KI is dedicated to research on theory and applications across all methods and topic areas of AI research. Due to COVID-19 the conference was held virtually. The chapter "Dynamically Self-Adjusting Gaussian Processes for Data Stream Modelling" is available open access under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License via link.springer.com.

Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable
Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable

Author: Omer Faruk Akbal

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2023-08-04

Total Pages: 36

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Quarterly GDP statistics facilitate timely economic assessment, but the availability of such data are limited for more than 60 developing economies, including about 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa as well as more than two-thirds of fragile and conflict-affected states. To address this limited data availablity, this paper proposes a panel approach that utilizes a statistical relationship estimated from countries where data are available, to estimate quarterly GDP statistics for countries that do not publish such statistics by leveraging the indicators readily available for many countries. This framework demonstrates potential, especially when applied for similar country groups, and could provide valuable real-time insights into economic conditions supported by empirical evidence.

Analytics in Finance and Risk Management
Analytics in Finance and Risk Management

Author: Nga Thi Hong Nguyen

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2023-12-13

Total Pages: 397

ISBN-13: 1003808581

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This book presents contemporary issues and challenges in finance and risk management in a time of rapid transformation due to technological advancements. It includes research articles based on financial and economic data and intends to cover the emerging role of analytics in financial management, asset management, and risk management. Analytics in Finance and Risk Management covers statistical techniques for data analysis in finance It explores applications in finance and risk management, covering empirical properties of financial systems. It addresses data science involving the study of statistical and computational models and includes basic and advanced concepts. The chapters incorporate the latest methodologies and challenges facing financial and risk management and illustrate related issues and their implications in the real world. The primary users of this book will include researchers, academicians, postgraduate students, professionals in engineering and business analytics, managers, consultants, and advisors in IT firms, financial markets, and services domains.

Managing Technology Integration for Human Resources in Industry 5.0
Managing Technology Integration for Human Resources in Industry 5.0

Author: Sharma, Naman

Publisher: IGI Global

Published: 2023-02-03

Total Pages: 314

ISBN-13: 166846747X

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Although the transition between the first three industrial revolutions took more than a century, Industry 4.0 is progressing quickly. The emergence of digitalization has been rapid thanks to the development of cutting-edge technologies. Though we are witnessing this rapid technological decentralization and interconnectivity at present, organizations and researchers are already discussing Industry 5.0 where full integration of the human side of business and intelligent systems is expected. In this scenario, it is essential to look forward to such strategic workplaces that allow a combination of humans and technology to assure a high degree of automation merged with the cognitive skills of business leaders. Managing Technology Integration for Human Resources in Industry 5.0 provides insights into the impact of the Industrial Revolution 4.0 on human resources. It provides insights for both industry and academia to assist them in teaching and training the next generation leaders through universities and corporate training. Covering topics such as business performance, human technology integration, and digitalization, this premier reference source is an essential resource for human resource managers, IT managers, organizational executives and leaders, entrepreneurs, students and educators of higher education, librarians, researchers, and academicians.

Evolutionary Algorithms for Solving Multi-Objective Problems
Evolutionary Algorithms for Solving Multi-Objective Problems

Author: Carlos Coello Coello

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2007-08-26

Total Pages: 810

ISBN-13: 0387367977

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This textbook is a second edition of Evolutionary Algorithms for Solving Multi-Objective Problems, significantly expanded and adapted for the classroom. The various features of multi-objective evolutionary algorithms are presented here in an innovative and student-friendly fashion, incorporating state-of-the-art research. The book disseminates the application of evolutionary algorithm techniques to a variety of practical problems. It contains exhaustive appendices, index and bibliography and links to a complete set of teaching tutorials, exercises and solutions.

Deep Learning
Deep Learning

Author: Josh Patterson

Publisher: "O'Reilly Media, Inc."

Published: 2017-07-28

Total Pages: 550

ISBN-13: 1491914211

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Although interest in machine learning has reached a high point, lofty expectations often scuttle projects before they get very far. How can machine learning—especially deep neural networks—make a real difference in your organization? This hands-on guide not only provides the most practical information available on the subject, but also helps you get started building efficient deep learning networks. Authors Adam Gibson and Josh Patterson provide theory on deep learning before introducing their open-source Deeplearning4j (DL4J) library for developing production-class workflows. Through real-world examples, you’ll learn methods and strategies for training deep network architectures and running deep learning workflows on Spark and Hadoop with DL4J. Dive into machine learning concepts in general, as well as deep learning in particular Understand how deep networks evolved from neural network fundamentals Explore the major deep network architectures, including Convolutional and Recurrent Learn how to map specific deep networks to the right problem Walk through the fundamentals of tuning general neural networks and specific deep network architectures Use vectorization techniques for different data types with DataVec, DL4J’s workflow tool Learn how to use DL4J natively on Spark and Hadoop

Learning Deep Architectures for AI
Learning Deep Architectures for AI

Author: Yoshua Bengio

Publisher: Now Publishers Inc

Published: 2009

Total Pages: 145

ISBN-13: 1601982941

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Theoretical results suggest that in order to learn the kind of complicated functions that can represent high-level abstractions (e.g. in vision, language, and other AI-level tasks), one may need deep architectures. Deep architectures are composed of multiple levels of non-linear operations, such as in neural nets with many hidden layers or in complicated propositional formulae re-using many sub-formulae. Searching the parameter space of deep architectures is a difficult task, but learning algorithms such as those for Deep Belief Networks have recently been proposed to tackle this problem with notable success, beating the state-of-the-art in certain areas. This paper discusses the motivations and principles regarding learning algorithms for deep architectures, in particular those exploiting as building blocks unsupervised learning of single-layer models such as Restricted Boltzmann Machines, used to construct deeper models such as Deep Belief Networks.

Salsa Dancing into the Social Sciences
Salsa Dancing into the Social Sciences

Author: Kristin Luker

Publisher: Harvard University Press

Published: 2009-06-30

Total Pages: 334

ISBN-13: 0674040384

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This book is both a handbook for defining and completing a research project, and an astute introduction to the neglected history and changeable philosophy of modern social science.