This international bestseller, which foreshadowed a market crash, explains why it could happen again if we don't act now. Fractal geometry is the mathematics of roughness: how to reduce the outline of a jagged leaf or static in a computer connection to a few simple mathematical properties. With his fractal tools, Mandelbrot has got to the bottom of how financial markets really work. He finds they have a shifting sense of time and wild behaviour that makes them volatile, dangerous - and beautiful. In his models, the complex gyrations of the FTSE 100 and exchange rates can be reduced to straightforward formulae that yield a much more accurate description of the risks involved.
Mandelbrot is world famous for his creation of the new mathematics of fractal geometry. Yet few people know that his original field of applied research was in econometrics and financial models, applying ideas of scaling and self-similarity to arrays of data generated by financial analyses. This book brings together his original papers as well as many original chapters specifically written for this book.
A careful examination of the interaction between physics and finance. It takes a look at the 100-year-long history of co-operation between the two fields and goes on to provide new research results on capital markets - taken from the field of statistical physics. The random walk model, well known in physics, is one good example of where the two disciplines meet. In the world of finance it is the basic model upon which the Black-Scholes theory of option pricing and hedging has been built. The underlying assumptions are discussed using empirical financial data and analogies to physical models such as fluid flows, turbulence, or superdiffusion. On this basis, new theories of derivative pricing and risk control can be formulated.
Here is the remarkable life story of Benoit Mandelbrot, the creator of fractal geometry, and his unparalleled contributions to science mathematics, the financial world, and the arts. Mandelbrot recounts his early years in Warsaw and in Paris, where he was mentored by an eminent mathematician uncle, through his days evading the Nazis in occupied France, to his education at Caltech, Princeton, and MIT, and his illustrious career at the IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center. An outside to mainstream scientific research, he managed to do what others had thought impossible: develop a new geometry that combines revelatory beauty with a radical way of unfolding formerly hidden scientific laws. In the process he was able to use geometry to solve fresh, real-world problems. With exuberance and an eloquent fluency, Benoit Mandelbrot recounts the high points of his fascinating life, offering us a glimpse into the evolution of his extraordinary mind. With full-color inserts and black-and-white photographs throughout.
Just 23 years ago Benoit Mandelbrot published his famous picture of the Mandelbrot set, but that picture has changed our view of the mathematical and physical universe. In this text, Mandelbrot offers 25 papers from the past 25 years, many related to the famous inkblot figure. Of historical interest are some early images of this fractal object produced with a crude dot-matrix printer. The text includes some items not previously published.
Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics Get ready to change the way you think about economics. Nobel laureate Richard H. Thaler has spent his career studying the radical notion that the central agents in the economy are humans—predictable, error-prone individuals. Misbehaving is his arresting, frequently hilarious account of the struggle to bring an academic discipline back down to earth—and change the way we think about economics, ourselves, and our world. Traditional economics assumes rational actors. Early in his research, Thaler realized these Spock-like automatons were nothing like real people. Whether buying a clock radio, selling basketball tickets, or applying for a mortgage, we all succumb to biases and make decisions that deviate from the standards of rationality assumed by economists. In other words, we misbehave. More importantly, our misbehavior has serious consequences. Dismissed at first by economists as an amusing sideshow, the study of human miscalculations and their effects on markets now drives efforts to make better decisions in our lives, our businesses, and our governments. Coupling recent discoveries in human psychology with a practical understanding of incentives and market behavior, Thaler enlightens readers about how to make smarter decisions in an increasingly mystifying world. He reveals how behavioral economic analysis opens up new ways to look at everything from household finance to assigning faculty offices in a new building, to TV game shows, the NFL draft, and businesses like Uber. Laced with antic stories of Thaler’s spirited battles with the bastions of traditional economic thinking, Misbehaving is a singular look into profound human foibles. When economics meets psychology, the implications for individuals, managers, and policy makers are both profound and entertaining. Shortlisted for the Financial Times & McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award
Tuckett argues that most economists' explanations of the financial crisis miss its essence; they ignore critical components of human psychology. He offers a deeper understanding of financial market behaviour and investment processes by recognizing the role played by unconscious needs and fears in all investment activity.
"Free the Market!" traces Reback's titanic legal battles--involving top companies such as Apple, Microsoft, IBM, Oracle, and AT&T--and offers a persuasive argument for measured government intervention in the free market to foster competition.
The latest developments in chaos theory - from an industry expert Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets was the first book to introduce and popularize chaos as it applies to finance. It has since become the classic source on the topic. This new edition is completely updated to include the latest ripples in chaos theory with new chapters that tie in today's hot innovations, such as fuzzy logic, neural nets, and artificial intelligence. Critical praise for Peters and the first edition of Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets "The bible of market chaologists." - BusinessWeek "Ed Peters has written a first-class summary suitable for any investment professional or skilled investor." - Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities "It ranks among the most provocative financial books of the past few years. Reading this book will provide a generous payback for the time and mental energy expended." - Financial Analysts Journal This second edition of Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets brings the topic completely up to date with timely examples from today's markets and descriptions of the latest wave of technology, including genetic algorithms, wavelets, and complexity theory. Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets was the very first book to explore and popularize chaos theory as it applies to finance. It has since become the industry standard, and is regarded as the definitive source to which analysts, investors, and traders turn for a comprehensive overview of chaos theory. Now, this invaluable reference - touted by BusinessWeek as "the bible of market chaologists" - has been updated and revised to bring you the latest developments in the field. Mainstream capital market theory is based on efficient market assumptions, even though the markets themselves exhibit characteristics that are symptomatic of nonlinear dynamic systems. As it explores - and validates - this nonlinear nature, Chaos and Order repudiates the "random walk" theory and econometrics. It shifts the focus away from the concept of efficient markets toward a more general view of the forces underlying the capital market system. Presenting new analytical techniques, as well as reexamining methods that have been in use for the past forty years, Chaos and Order offers a thorough examination of chaos theory and fractals as applied to investments and economics. This new edition includes timely examples from today's markets and descriptions of cutting-edge technologies-genetic algorithms, wavelets, complexity theory-and hot innovations, such as fuzzy logic and artificial intelligence. Beyond the history of current capital market theory, Chaos and Order covers the crucial characteristics of fractals, the analysis of fractal time series through rescaled range analysis (R/S), the specifics of fractal statistics, and the definition and analysis of chaotic systems. It offers an in-depth exploration of: * Random walks and efficient markets - the development of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) and modern portfolio theory * The linear paradigm - why it has failed * Nonlinear dynamic systems - phase space, the Henon Map, Lyapunov exponents * Applying chaos and nonlinear methods - neural networks, genetic algorithms * Dynamical analysis of time series - reconstructing a phase space, the fractal dimension Tonis Vaga's Coherent Market Hypothesis - the theory of social imitation, control parameters, Vaga's implementations Plus, Chaos and Order now contains a Windows-compatible disk including data sets for running analyses described in the appendices. Written by a leading expert in the field, Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets has all the information you need for a complete, up-to-date look at chaos theory. This latest edition will undoubtedly prove to be as invaluable as the first.
Discover the Hidden Mathematics of Modern Geometry Fractals, the never-ending geometric-mathematical patterns existing throughout nature, are revealed in the shapes of continents, galaxies, snowflakes, and grains of sand. In this fascinating and seminal volume, renowned pioneering-mathematician Benoit B. Mandelbrot explains his work on fractal geometry, mathematically translating the description of these complex shapes of nature. Until Mandelbrot developed the concept of fractal geometry in the 1960s and 70s, most mathematicians believed these irregular shapes were too fragmented and amorphous to be described mathematically. Mandelbrot's revolutionary concept brought order to a variety of seemingly unsolvable problems in physics, biology, and financial markets. Broad in application, this groundbreaking work will inform not just mathematicians, but anyone that appreciates the natural elegance of patterns made manifest. Featuring illustrations of mathematically defined shapes, Mandelbrot describes how geometric patterns relate to every aspect of the physical world around us.
