Full text also available in: Arabic, Chinese, French, Japanese, Russian, and Spanish. The global economy is expanding moderately but the outlook has weakened further since October, and risks have increased. The global economy has been impaired from growth that has been too slow for too long, and at this rate a sustained recovery—with the expected higher living standards, lower unemployment and declining debt levels—may not be delivered. However, some recent improvement in data releases, somewhat firmer oil prices, reduced pressures on outflows from China, and actions by major central banks have all contributed to improving sentiment. Building on these recent positive developments, the global economy can get back on a stronger and safer track, but the current policy response will need to go further. Countries must reinforce their commitment to durable global growth and employ a more potent policy mix. A three-pronged approach with monetary, fiscal, and structural actions can work as a virtuous trinity, lifting actual and potential growth, averting recession risks, and enhancing financial stability. The IMF will support this commitment by helping countries identify space, craft appropriate policies, and build capacity to deliver on these policies; providing a strong financial backstop for policy implementation; and assisting members with new challenges.
The global economy has proven resilient, and a soft landing is within reach. Inflation has moderated thanks to tight monetary policy and fading supply shocks, and growth is expected to remain steady. But uncertainty remains significant, with risks tilted to the downside; medium-term growth prospects are lackluster; public debt has reached record highs and is expected to approach 100 percent of GDP by 2030; and geoeconomic fragmentation threatens to undo decades of gains from cross-border economic integration. At the same time, transformative changes—the green transition, demographic shifts, and digitalization, including artificial intelligence—are poised to reshape the global economy, creating challenges but also opportunities. Against this background, the key policy priorities are to secure a soft landing and break from the low growth-high debt path, and address other medium-term challenges. Monetary policy should ensure inflation returns durably to the target, and fiscal policy needs to decisively pivot toward consolidation to rebuild buffers and safeguard debt sustainability. Growth-enhancing reforms are urgently needed to lift growth prospects by boosting investment, job creation, and productivity. Domestic policies must be complemented by multilateral efforts to support countries with debt vulnerabilities, protect gains from economic integration, accelerate climate action, and harness benefits of new technologies while mitigating the risks. As it has done since its founding 80 years ago, the IMF will continue to adapt to serve its members with tailored policy advice, financial lifelines when needed, and capacity development. The Fund will remain a strong advocate for multilateralism and economic integration as foundations on which to build a resilient and inclusive global economy.
The global recovery has suffered new setbacks with uncertainty weighing heavily on confidence and prospects. Output is contracting in the euro area and growth has decelerated in many other advanced economies and major emerging markets. Markets have been buoyed by central bank action in the advanced economies which provides an opportunity to lay the basis for a recovery. Policymakers must detail, and aggressively implement, measures to address the underlying weaknesses—fiscal, financial, and structural. In the Euro area the ESM and the OMT need to be deployed, banking union advanced, and national authorities should implement strong policies to credibly ensure fiscal consolidation over the medium-term and to raise growth and employment. In the U.S., the immediate priority is to resolve the fiscal cliff and raise the debt ceiling, while developing an appropriately ambitious medium-term fiscal consolidation plan. In the Euro area, the Fund will support members’ efforts by assisting in the development and monitoring of well-designed adjustment programs and providing analysis and advice on options for banking and fiscal union. For other advanced economies, the Fund will assess the implications of the underlying policy framework.
The global economy has shown resilience: macroeconomic policies are delivering, inflation is steadily declining, and financial markets have stabilized. But the recovery is slow and uneven, medium-term growth prospects are weak, and there is a risk of further divergence across countries. The key policy priorities are to (1) safeguard macroeconomic stability and rebuild buffers while enhancing prosperity through growth-oriented and green reforms and (2) bolster international cooperation to strengthen the global financial safety net and debt architecture and to support ongoing fundamental transitions that transcend borders and require joint action. The IMF—as trusted advisor, provider of financial support, and platform for cooperation—remains committed to bringing countries together to solve global challenges.
The global economy has shown remarkable resilience, and appears headed for a soft landing. But buffers have been eroded, growth prospects are lackluster, and vulnerable countries are at risk of falling further behind. While inflation has fallen, it remains above target in many countries. Against this background, the key policy priorities are to: (i) rebuild buffers; (ii) revive medium-term growth; and (iii) renew the IMF’s commitment to ensure that our policies, lending toolkit, and governance are fit for purpose. Central banks need to finish the job on inflation, carefully managing its descent to target. With a soft landing in sight, policymakers’ focus needs to shift to fiscal consolidation to safeguard public finances. Reviving growth prospects will require accelerating structural reforms and joint efforts by countries to tackle transformational challenges. Firmly grounded in its mandate, working with its members, and in partnership with other international organizations, the IMF will continue to serve its members with policy advice, financial lifelines, and capacity development to help safeguard their economic and financial stability, a foundation for inclusive and sustainable growth.
The Executive Summary is also available in: Arabic , Chinese, French, Japanese, Russian, and Spanish. The membership is facing a rapidly changing and uncertain world. The United States is poised to raise interest rates amid ongoing recovery, China’s expected slowdown as it rebalances growth is creating larger-than-anticipated spillovers, and commodity producers are facing the end of a long cycle of high commodity prices. These necessary transitions pose challenges, particularly for emerging and low-income developing countries, where prospects have dwindled the most. Policymakers are increasingly grappling with difficult policy trade-offs. Faced with limited room to maneuver and the need to adapt to new realities, what relative weight should be placed on supporting demand and current activity, on reducing financial risks as financial conditions tighten, and on implementing urgently needed structural reforms to revive future growth? Policies need to reflect country circumstances and coalesce into a new multilateralism. Mutually reinforcing policies are needed to support growth today, invest in resilience and safeguard financial stability, and implement the structural reforms needed for a sustainable and inclusive future. Policies should reflect member circumstances and also add up to a coherent whole—to ensure that demand is created not substituted, market resilience is enhanced not circumvented, and that structural reforms are enacted not delayed. Cooperation is vital in areas such as the global financial safety net, trade, climate change, international taxation, sustainable development goals (SDGs), and demographic transitions and migration. The Fund will support the membership at this juncture. The Fund has both the universal membership and mandate to address growth and economic stability issues at the national and global levels. To support the membership most effectively, the Fund will focus on three priorities that best reflect this new AIM: • Agility. Advice will focus on policies to support members cope with evolving transitions—respond to tighter and more volatile financial conditions and implement effective macro-structural reforms. The lending framework will deliver financial assistance quickly where needed. Delivery of technical assistance and training will be enhanced by greater use of online tools. • Integration. In the face of growing policy trade-offs, the Fund will support its members by better integrating policy advice across sectors, embracing evolving priorities, promoting integration of global, regional, and bilateral safety nets, and better leveraging synergies between surveillance and capacity building. • Member-Focused. With policy concerns evolving rapidly and advice becoming more dependent on country-specifics, the Fund will deepen its engagement with members, better deliver its knowledge, and ensure faster feedback to policymakers. The Fund continues to refine its core work—surveillance, lending, and capacity building—and to attain greater intellectual and cultural diversity to respond to this changing global environment and its corresponding policy challenges. To further improve services to the membership, Fund activities need to be fully supported by adequate financial, human, budgetary, and technological resources.
Reeling from multiple shocks, the global economic outlook looks increasingly difficult. Since last October, we have downgraded global growth and revised up inflation projections four times. Two years of pandemic, followed by the war in Ukraine, have taken a heavy toll on activity and global trade, exhausting both policy buffers and people’s patience. Now, a ‘cost-of-living crisis’ threatens livelihoods everywhere, with the most vulnerable hit the hardest, and acute food insecurity is an unbearable hardship in too many parts of the world. Multi-decade inflation highs, tightening financing conditions, rising food and energy insecurity, capital flow disruptions, and record high debt levels point to a particularly difficult and uncertain period ahead—especially in the context of slowing growth in the US, Europe, and China. The increasing frequency and intensity of climate-related disasters—devastating floods, droughts, and wildfires—adds to these challenges. While the ongoing digital revolution brings new opportunities, the recent turmoil in crypto asset markets is a reminder of the risks of unfettered digitalization.
The global policy agenda that follows recalibrates priorities to meet the new reality we are facing. The IMF also continues to adjust to respond to the rapidly evolving needs of our membership. Our flexibility has been evident over the past two years of the COVID crisis: unprecedented emergency financing; a historic Special Drawing Rights (SDR) allocation; an innovative plan to end the pandemic. Now, as we face another crisis on top of a crisis, we will continue to step up and support our member countries in every way we can—with financial resources, policy advice, and capacity development—working in collaboration with our international partners.
The global economy is at another highly uncertain moment: tentative signs of stabilization earlier this year have receded, and the outlook is increasingly risky and uncertain. At the same time, divisions within and across countries are deepening, exacerbated by rising fragmentation. Strong policy action is needed together with pragmatic approaches to find areas of common ground to respond to shared challenges. The IMF is proactively engaging with our members to chart a clear course to a stronger and more sustainable path for the global economy.
Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva’s Global Policy Agenda, Exceptional Times, Exceptional Action, highlights three priorities for policymakers around the world: protect lives, protect livelihoods, and plan for the recovery. She Says “The reality is that anyone’s fight against the #COVID-19 virus is everyone’s fight. More than ever we need global solidarity, a common resolve, and coordinated international efforts. And with so many countries short on resources, we need to give more support to those most in need,”.
