The Heterogeneous Effects of Uncertainty on Trade
The Heterogeneous Effects of Uncertainty on Trade

Author: Ibrahim Nana

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2024-07-09

Total Pages: 45

ISBN-13:

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This paper empirically investigates the relationship between uncertainty and trade. We use a gravity model for 143 countries over the 1980-2021 period to assess the impact of uncertainty on bilateral trade. We confirm that, in general, uncertainty has a negative impact on trade. The findings suggest that a one standard deviation increase in global uncertainty is associated with a decline in bilateral trade by 4.5 percent, with fuel and industrial products trade being the most impacted. This negative impact is observed for uncertainty on both sides of the border, with a higher impact of uncertainty from the importing country. The article goes deeper into the analysis and shows that deeper trade integration (horizontal integration) mitigates the negative impact of uncertainty on trade. In contrast, higher participation in global value chains (vertical integration) amplifies the negative effect of uncertainty on trade. We find that geopolitical tensions amplify the deterrent effect of uncertainty on trade. Finally, the result is heterogeneous across income levels, regions, and resource endowment: (a) uncertainty has a negative impact on bilateral trade between Emerging Markets and Developing Economies and Advanced Economies; however, (b) at the regional level, Africa and Europe’s intraregional trade decrease as uncertainty surges. (c) Evidence shows that non-resources-rich countries are more at risk.

Paris-Princeton Lectures on Mathematical Finance 2003
Paris-Princeton Lectures on Mathematical Finance 2003

Author: Tomasz R. Bielecki

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2004-08-30

Total Pages: 259

ISBN-13: 3540444688

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The Paris-Princeton Lectures in Financial Mathematics, of which this is the second volume, will, on an annual basis, publish cutting-edge research in self-contained, expository articles from outstanding - established or upcoming! - specialists. The aim is to produce a series of articles that can serve as an introductory reference for research in the field. It arises as a result of frequent exchanges between the finance and financial mathematics groups in Paris and Princeton. This volume presents the following articles: "Hedging of Defaultable Claims" by T. Bielecki, M. Jeanblanc, and M. Rutkowski; "On the Geometry of Interest Rate Models" by T. Björk; "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Speculation and Trading in Financial Markets" by J.A. Scheinkman, and W. Xiong.

Trade Credit and Bank Credit
Trade Credit and Bank Credit

Author: Inessa Love

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2005

Total Pages: 34

ISBN-13:

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"The authors study the effect of financial crises on trade credit in a sample of 890 firms in six emerging economies. They find that although provision of trade credit increases right after the crisis, it consequently collapses in the following months and years. The authors observe that firms with weaker financial position (for example, high pre-crisis level of short-term debt and low cash stocks and cash flows) are more likely to reduce trade credit provided to their customers. This suggests that the decline in aggregate credit provision is driven by the reduction in the supply of trade credit, which follows the bank credit crunch. The results are consistent with the "redistribution view" of trade credit provision, in which bank credit is redistributed by way of trade credit by the firms with stronger financial position to the firms with weaker financial stand "--World Bank web site.

Falling Trade Costs, Heterogeneous Firms, and Industry Dynamics
Falling Trade Costs, Heterogeneous Firms, and Industry Dynamics

Author: Andrew B. Bernard

Publisher:

Published: 2003

Total Pages: 50

ISBN-13:

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This paper examines the response of industries and firms to changes in trade costs. Several new firm-level models of international trade with heterogeneous firms predict that industry productivity will rise as trade costs fall due to the reallocation of activity across plants within an industry. Using disaggregated U.S. import data, we create a new measure of trade costs over time and industries. As the models predict, productivity growth is faster in industries with falling trade costs. We also find evidence supporting the major hypotheses of the heterogenous-firm models. Plants in industries with falling trade costs are more likely to die or become exporters. Existing exporters increase their shipments abroad. The results do not apply equally across all sectors but are strongest for industries most likely to be producing horizontally-differentiated tradeable goods.

Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment
Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment

Author: Robert S. Pindyck

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 1989

Total Pages: 58

ISBN-13:

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Irreversible investment is especially sensitive to such risk factors as volatile exchange rates and uncertainty about tariff structures and future cash flows. If the goal of macroeconomic policy is to stimulate investment, stability and credibility may be more important than tax incentives or interest rates.

Comparative Advantage and Heterogeneous Firms
Comparative Advantage and Heterogeneous Firms

Author: Andrew B. Bernard

Publisher:

Published: 2006

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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This paper examines how country, industry and firm characteristics interact in general equilibrium to determine nations' responses to trade liberalization. When firms possess heterogeneous productivity, countries differ in relative factor abundance and industries vary in factor intensity, falling trade costs induce reallocations of resources both within and across industries and countries. These reallocations generate substantial job turnover in all sectors, spur relatively more creative destruction in comparative advantage industries than comparative disadvantage industries, and magnify ex ante comparative advantage to create additional welfare gains from trade. The relative ascendance of high-productivity firms within industries boosts aggregate productivity and drives down consumer prices. In contrast with the neoclassical model, these price declines dampen and can even reverse the real wage losses of scarce factors as countries liberalize.

Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty
Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty

Author: Ezgi O. Ozturk

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-10-30

Total Pages: 41

ISBN-13: 1484326113

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Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic uncertainty covering 45 countries and construct a measure of global uncertainty as the weighted average of country-specific uncertainties. Our measure captures perceived uncertainty of market participants and derives from two components that are shown to exhibit strikingly different behavior. Common uncertainty shocks produce the large and persistent negative response in real economic activity, whereas the contributions of idiosyncratic uncertainty shocks are negligible.

A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis
A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis

Author: Marc Bacchetta

Publisher:

Published: 2012

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9789287038128

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Trade flows and trade policies need to be properly quantified to describe, compare, or follow the evolution of policies between sectors or countries or over time. This is essential to ensure that policy choices are made with an appropriate knowledge of the real conditions. This practical guide introduces the main techniques of trade and trade policy data analysis. It shows how to develop the main indexes used to analyze trade flows, tariff structures, and non-tariff measures. It presents the databases needed to construct these indexes as well as the challenges faced in collecting and processing these data, such as measurement errors or aggregation bias. Written by experts with practical experience in the field, A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis has been developed to contribute to enhance developing countries' capacity to analyze and implement trade policy. It offers a hands-on introduction on how to estimate the distributional effects of trade policies on welfare, in particular on inequality and poverty. The guide is aimed at government experts engaged in trade negotiations, as well as students and researchers involved in trade-related study or research. An accompanying DVD contains data sets and program command files required for the exercises. Copublished by the WTO and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

Policy Analysis And Modeling Of The Global Economy: A Festschrift Celebrating Thomas Hertel
Policy Analysis And Modeling Of The Global Economy: A Festschrift Celebrating Thomas Hertel

Author: Peter Dixon

Publisher: World Scientific

Published: 2020-12-14

Total Pages: 595

ISBN-13: 9811233640

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This volume honors the extraordinary career of Thomas Hertel. It also celebrates the 25th anniversary of the founding of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) by Prof. Hertel. All of those contributing to this volume, including Prof. Hertel's students and colleagues, have benefitted in some ways from the selfless professional generosity and dedication to scientific public goods that have been hallmarks of his career.The book examines the history of the GTAP project, the scientific contributions of Prof. Hertel, and the general application of computational modeling to global economic policy analysis. The applications in the volume, reflecting the broad contributions made by the GTAP community to global policy analysis, range from the impact of globalization on employment to the sustainability impacts of economic integration.