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Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author: Mr.Alexander W. Hoffmaister

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1997-07-01

Total Pages: 31

ISBN-13: 1451954743

The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in sub–Saharan African are examined by comparing the CFA franc countries with the non–CFA franc countries. External shocks, especially terms of trade shocks, appear to have a greater influence on fluctuations of output and the real exchange rate in CFA franc countries. This result does not appear to be associated with differences in the economic structure but may reflect the fixed exchange rate regime, which does not (partially) buffer these countries from external shocks. Macroeconomic fluctuations in non–CFA franc countries are similar to those in other developing countries, particularly in Latin America.

The Exchange Rate System and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author: Yaya Sissoko

Publisher:

Published: 2006

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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In this paper, we investigate the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries with particular attention to the exchange rate system. We use a structural Vector Autoregression (VAR) model with limited capital mobility and long run restrictions to identify the shocks. Supply and terms of trade shocks tend to dominate output movements in the CFA and non-CFA countries alike. However, terms of trade shocks tend to influence the CFA zone to a greater extent and there seems to be a higher influence of demand shocks on output and the real exchange rates in the non-CFA countries.

Economic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author: Mr.Giovanni Melina

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-01-22

Total Pages: 32

ISBN-13: 1484394534

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We compare business cycle fluctuations in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries vis-à-vis the rest of the world. Our main results are as follows: (i) African economies stand out by their macroeconomic volatility, which is is reflected in the volatility of output and other macro variables; (ii) inflation and output tend to be negatively correlated; (iii) unlike advanced economies and emerging markets (EMs), trade balances and current accounts are acyclical in SSA; (iv) the volatility of consumption and investment relative to GDP is larger than in other countries; (v) the cyclicality of consumption and investment is smaller than in advanced economies and EMs; (vi) there is little comovement between consumption and investment; (vii) consumption and investment are strongly positively correlated with imports.

Macroeconomic Shocks and Trade Flows within Sub-Saharan Africa

Author: Mr.Tamim Bayoumi

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1995-12-01

Total Pages: 34

ISBN-13: 1451927495

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Africa has more countries than any other continent, and hence the largest number of potential monetary and exchange rate arrangements. This paper looks at whether the existing highly fractured monetary arrangements in Sub-Saharan Africa correspond to what might be expected from the theory of optimum currency areas. This is done by analyzing both the size and correlation of real disturbances across countries and the level of intra-regional trade. The results indicate little evidence that Sub-Saharan African countries would benefit in the near future from larger currency unions.

Exchange Rate Liberalization in Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries Successes, Failures, and Lessons

Author: Mr.Nils Øyvind Mæhle

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-01-31

Total Pages: 71

ISBN-13: 1616350466

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Many sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries liberalized their economies in the 1980s and early 1990s. This paper reviews the foreign exchange regime reforms in selected SSA, and their associated macroeconomic policies and economic performance during and after these reforms were undertaken. Before liberalization, most of the reviewed countries were characterized by extensive foreign exchange rationing, sizeable black market premiums, and declining per capita real income. Today, the countries that successfully reformed look markedly different. Rationing and parallel market spreads are a distant memory, and per capita income has increased sharply.

Alternative Exchange Rate Strategies and Fiscal Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author: Mrs.Stefania Bazzoni

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1993-08-01

Total Pages: 86

ISBN-13: 1451961057

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This paper investigates the relationship between fiscal performance in 28 sub-Saharan African countries over the 1980-91 period with movements in the exchange rates, the terms of trade, and other macroeconomic aggregates. It finds that the tax base in most of these countries is heavily dependent on imports and import substitutes. Consequently, an overvaluation of the exchange rate in countries which adopted a fixed exchange rate strategy undermines the tax base and results in a widening of the fiscal deficit when the purpose of the strategy is to restore the real exchange rate to its equilibrium through fiscal contraction. Those countries which pursued a variable exchange rate strategy failed in attaining price stability, but exchange rate adjustment was critical in contributing to other macroeconomic objectives, particularly fiscal balance, competitiveness, and growth.

Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Sub-Saharan African Economies and its Determinants

Author: Mr.Ivohasina Fizara Razafimahefa

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2012-06-01

Total Pages: 57

ISBN-13: 1475503989

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This paper analyzes the exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices and its determinants in sub-Saharan African countries. It finds that the pass-through is incomplete. The pass-through is larger following a depreciation than after an appreciation of the local currency. The average elasticity is estimated at about 0.4. It is lower in countries with more flexible exchange rate regimes and in countries with a higher income. A low inflation environment, a prudent monetary policy, and a sustainable fiscal policy are associated with a lower pass-through. The degree of pass-through has declined in the SSA region since the mid-1990s following marked improvements in macroeconomic and political environments.

Effect of Exchange Rate Movements on Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author: Laurent Kemoe

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2024-03-15

Total Pages: 36

ISBN-13:

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This paper provides new evidence on the exchange rate passthrough to domestic inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using both bilateral US dollar exchange rate and the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER), and monthly data. We find that depreciations cause sizable increases in domestic inflation. The passthrough in SSA is higher than in other regions and its magnitude depends on the exchange rate regime, type of exchange rate (bilateral versus NEER), natural resource endowment and domestic market competitiveness. The passthrough is found to be disproportionately larger and more persistent for large depreciation shocks, and for exchange rate changes that are more persistent. We also find evidence of asymmetry, with passthrough eight times stronger during depreciations than appreciations. Additional findings suggest that improved monetary policy effectiveness is an important driver of our observed declining estimates of exchange rate passthrough over time, supporting the long-standing view that strengthening monetary policy frameworks and credibility helps mitigate the impact of depreciations on inflation.