Abstract: This paper measures the economic impact of climate on crops in Kenya. The analysis is based on cross-sectional climate, hydrological, soil, and household level data for a sample of 816 households, and uses a seasonal Ricardian model. Estimated marginal impacts of climate variables suggest that global warming is harmful for agricultural productivity and that changes in temperature are much more important than changes in precipitation. This result is confirmed by the predicted impact of various climate change scenarios on agriculture. The results further confirm that the temperature component of global warming is much more important than precipitation. The authors analyze farmers' perceptions of climate variations and their adaptation to these, and also constraints on adaptation mechanisms. The results suggest that farmers in Kenya are aware of short-term climate change, that most of them have noticed an increase in temperatures, and that some have taken adaptive measures.
This paper measures the economic impact of climate on crops in Kenya. The analysis is based on cross-sectional climate, hydrological, soil, and household level data for a sample of 816 households, and uses a seasonal Ricardian model. Estimated marginal impacts of climate variables suggest that global warming is harmful for agricultural productivity and that changes in temperature are much more important than changes in precipitation. This result is confirmed by the predicted impact of various climate change scenarios on agriculture. The results further confirm that the temperature component of global warming is much more important than precipitation. The authors analyze farmers' perceptions of climate variations and their adaptation to these, and also constraints on adaptation mechanisms. The results suggest that farmers in Kenya are aware of short-term climate change, that most of them have noticed an increase in temperatures, and that some have taken adaptive measures.
This paper measures the economic impact of climate on crops in Kenya. The analysis is based on cross-sectional climate, hydrological, soil, and household level data for a sample of 816 households, and uses a seasonal Ricardian model. Estimated marginal impacts of climate variables suggest that global warming is harmful for agricultural productivity and that changes in temperature are much more important than changes in precipitation. This result is confirmed by the predicted impact of various climate change scenarios on agriculture. The results further confirm that the temperature component of global warming is much more important than precipitation. The authors analyze farmers' perceptions of climate variations and their adaptation to these, and also constraints on adaptation mechanisms. The results suggest that farmers in Kenya are aware of short-term climate change, that most of them have noticed an increase in temperatures, and that some have taken adaptive measures.
This study examines the impact of climate change on cropland in Africa. It is based on a survey of more than 9,000 farmers in 11 countries: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Niger, Senegal, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The study uses a Ricardian cross-sectional approach in which net revenue is regressed on climate, water flow, soil, and economic variables. The results show that net revenues fall as precipitation falls or as temperatures warm across all the surveyed farms. In addition to examining all farms together, the study examined dryland and irrigated farms separately. Dryland farms are especially climate sensitive. Irrigated farms have a positive immediate response to warming because they are located in relatively cool parts of Africa. The study also examined some simple climate scenarios to see how Africa would respond to climate change. These uniform scenarios assume that only one aspect of climate changes and the change is uniform across all of Africa. In addition, the study examined three climate change scenarios from Atmospheric Oceanic General Circulation Models. These scenarios predicted changes in climate in each country over time. Not all countries are equally vulnerable to climate change. First, the climate scenarios predict different temperature and precipitation changes in each country. Second, it is also important whether a country is already hot and dry. Third, the extent to which farms are irrigated is also important.
How will global warming affect developing countries, which rely heavily on agriculture as a source of economic growth? William Cline asserts that developing countries have more at risk, such as their production capacity, than industrial countries as global warming worsens. Using general circulation models, Cline boldly examines 2071–99 to forecast the effects of global warming and its economic impact into the next decade. This detailed study outlines existing studies on climate change; Cline finds the Stern Report for the UK government's estimates most reliable; estimates projected changes in temperature, precipitation, and agricultural capacity; and concludes with policy recommendations. Cline finds that agricultural production in developing countries may fall an average of 16 percent, and if global warming progresses at its current rate, India's agricultural capacity could fall as much as 40 percent. Thus, policymakers should address this phenomenon now before the world's developing countries are adversely and irreversibly affected.
A changing climate is likely to have a drastic impact on crop yields in Africa. The purpose of this book is to document the effects of climate change on agriculture in Africa and to discuss strategies for adaptation to hotter weather and less predictable rainfall. These strategies include promoting opportunities for farmers to adopt technologies that produce optimal results in terms of crop yield and income under local agro-ecological and socioeconomic conditions. The focus is on sub-Saharan Africa, an area that is already affected by changing patterns of heat and rainfall. Because of the high prevalence of subsistence farming, food insecurity, and extreme poverty in this region, there is a great need for practical adaptation strategies. The book includes empirical research in Ethiopia, Kenya, South Africa, Tanzania, and other Sub-Saharan countries, and the conclusion summarizes policy-relevant findings from the chapters. It is aimed at advanced students, researchers, extension and development practitioners, and officials of government agencies, NGOs, and funding agencies. It also will provide supplementary reading for courses in environment and development and in agricultural economics.
'This is a well researched, thorough and impressive work on climate change and agriculture in Africa. I recommend it to students, researchers and practitioners working on climate change issues' Jabavu Clifford Nkomo, senior programme specialist, IDRC This landmark book encompasses a comprehensive assessment of the potential economic impacts of future climate change, and the value of adaptation measures in Africa for different zones, regions, countries and farm types. Researchers developed and applied multiple analytical procedures to assess quantitatively how climate affects current agricultural systems in Africa, enabling them to predict how these systems may be affected in the future by climate change under various global warming scenarios, and suggesting what role adaptation could play. The study is the first to combine spatially referenced household survey data with climatic data at both national and international levels. This book provides vital knowledge about the impacts of climate change on Africa, serving as a guide to policy intervention strategies and investment in adaptation measures. It makes a major contribution to the analysis of climate change impacts and developing adaptation strategies, especially in the highly vulnerable farming communities in the developing world. Published with CEEPA and supported by the World Bank.
This book arises from a 2011 international conference entitled Climate Change, Agri-Food, Fisheries and Ecosystems: Reinventing Research, Innovation, and Policy Agendas for an Environmentally and Socially-Balanced Growth (ICCAFFE2011), organized by the North-South Center for Social Sciences (NRCS) in collaboration with the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH, Germany and the Institute for Research and Development (IRD), France. Coverage focuses on the agricultural sector and helps improve understanding of the relationships between agriculture and the environment and between human communities and nature, so as to sustainably manage agricultural development. The contributors analyze the interdependence between sustainable agricultural development and environmental, economic and social dynamics; assess the impacts of soil degradation on agricultural productivity; present ways to enhance livestock production and recommend mechanisms for managing links between agro-biodiversity, climate change and livelihoods. Part I examines sustainable agriculture development and environmental, economic and social dynamics, addressing topics such as global climate change, agriculture and challenges including socio-economic factors, adaptation, poverty reduction and water management. Part II covers the impacts of soil degradation on agricultural productivity and discusses the use of expert systems to assess and manage degraded lands, agricultural productivity, land suitability and rehabilitation. Part III focuses on livestock production enhancements, such as feed resources and supplemental feeds for animals and capacity building for women in dairy management. Part IV shares the outcomes of research in agro-biodiversity, climate change and livelihoods, addressing topics such as co-management of forests, carbon consumption models, biodiversity conservation and carbon sequestration and scarce mangrove forests. Current environmental and agro-ecological research focuses on understanding the cause-consequence relationships between specific agricultural practices and land use and the responses at different levels of ecosystems. This book is intended to contribute to this discussion.
This book addresses the issue of climate change risks and hazards holistically. Climate change adaptation aims at managing climate risks and hazards to an acceptable level, taking advantage of any positive opportunities that may arise. At the same time, developing suitable responses to hazards for communities and users of climate services is important in ensuring the success of adaptation measures. But despite this, knowledge about adaptation options, including possible actions that can be implemented to improve adaptation and reduce the impacts of climate change hazards, is still limited. Addressing this need, the book presents studies and research findings and offers a catalogue of potential adaptation options that can be explored. It also includes case studies providing illustrative and inspiring examples of how we can adapt to a changing climate.
This book is the outcome of two International Conferences held at the ISEC in Bangalore, India: the international conference on “Climate Change and Social-Ecological-Economical Interface-Building: Modelling Approach to Exploring Potential Adaptation Strategies for Bio-resource Conservation and Livelihood Development” held during 20–21 May 2015 and jointly organized by the Centre for Ecological Economics and Natural Resources (CEENR), Institute for Social and Economic Change (ISEC) and the Centre for Environmental Systems Research (CESR), University of Kassel, Germany; and the international conference “Climate Change and Food Security – the Global and Indian Contexts,” jointly hosted by the CEENR, ISEC and the School of Geosciences, University of Sydney, on 18–19 February 2015. The selected papers presented in this book portray a broad range of international research efforts aimed at developing a deeper understanding of human-environment systems but also at translating scientific knowledge into political and societal solutions and responses to the challenge of climate change.
