The Cost of Future Policy: Intertemporal Public Sector Balance Sheets in the G7
The Cost of Future Policy: Intertemporal Public Sector Balance Sheets in the G7

Author: Yugo Koshima

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-05-06

Total Pages: 48

ISBN-13: 1513573330

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This paper compiles the Intertemporal Public Sector Balance Sheets for all G7 countries and examines their relationship with government borrowing costs. In 2018, all G7 countries have negative Intertemporal Net Financial Worth (INFW), falling short of their intertemporal budget constraint. A decomposition of the evolution of INFW shows that short-term fluctuations are mainly driven by fiscal policy changes, while in the long run demographic changes and health and pension obligations play a larger role. We find that on average a 10 percentage point of GDP increase in INFW reduces the (future) 10-1 year sovereign yield curve spread by 2.8 basis points. This results suggest that financial markets pay attention to governments’ future policy obligations, in addition to its current assets and liabilities.

Mexico: Technical Assistance Report-Strengthening Public Assets and Liabilities Management
Mexico: Technical Assistance Report-Strengthening Public Assets and Liabilities Management

Author: International Monetary

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-12-17

Total Pages: 90

ISBN-13: 161635660X

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The Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) of Mexico intends to strengthen public asset and liability management (ALM) practices. The 2018 Fiscal Transparency Evaluation (FTE) identified several gaps in reporting public sector assets and liabilities and analysis of the associated risks. The authorities have identified the need for further reforms in three interrelated areas: (i) adopt the public sector balance sheet (PSBS) analytical framework to inform policy making; (ii) move toward more active cash management; and (iii) strengthen the management of financial assets and introduce a sovereign assets and liabilities management (SALM) framework in a phased manner. This report provides recommendations for reforms in these three areas.

Beyond Debt: Net Worth Fiscal Anchors
Beyond Debt: Net Worth Fiscal Anchors

Author: Hua Chai

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2024-07-09

Total Pages: 30

ISBN-13:

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This paper proposes anchoring medium- to long-term fiscal policy in a Public Sector Net Worth (PSNW) target. Such a target widens the scope of fiscal policy to include public sector assets, in addition to liabilities—the focus of debt-based rules. A PSNW target is directly relevant to ongoing policy debates on green fiscal rules and more generally, the reform of fiscal frameworks (such as the Euro Area’s) to allow for public investment in a high debt environment. Modeling a small open economy with public investment and endogenous growth, we show that, compared to debt-based anchors, a PSNW anchor is more conducive to public investment and economic growth, while providing for sensible policy reactions to changes in long-term interest rates. The net worth anchor also precludes unsustainable debt dynamics. Simulated transition dynamics show that replacing a debt anchor with a net worth anchor does not necessarily lead to higher debt-to-GDP ratios. In addition to the merits of a net worth anchor, the paper also discusses some operational challenges.

Japan's Public Sector Balance Sheet
Japan's Public Sector Balance Sheet

Author: Yugo Koshima

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-10-04

Total Pages: 41

ISBN-13: 1513514520

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This paper compiles and reviews the evolution of Japan’s Public Sector Balance Sheet (PSBS). In the past, large crossholdings of assets and liabilities within the public sector played a role in sustaining a high level of public debt and low interest rates. The Fiscal Investment and Loan Fund (FILF) channeled all postal deposits and pension savings to financing of public sector borrowing. After the FILF refrom in 2000, however, the Post Bank and pension funds shifted their assets to the portfolio investments and are seeking to maximize risk-adjusted returns. This has changed the implications of crossholdings for public debt management. In the future, population aging is expected to add more pressures on the PSBS, which already saw a considerable decrease of net worth over the last three decades.

Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice
Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice

Author: Craig Burnside

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2005

Total Pages: 312

ISBN-13: 9780821358740

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Topics discussed in this publication include: an introduction to theoretical and practical aspects of fiscal sustainability; theoretical prerequisites for fiscal sustainability analysis; debt indicators in the measurement of vulnerability; cyclical adjustment of budget surplus; pro-cyclical fiscal policy using Mexico's fiscal accounts as a case study; fiscal rules and the experience of Chile; currency crises and models for deal with financing costs.

Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policies
Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policies

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1998-03-01

Total Pages: 33

ISBN-13: 1451844239

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Recently, monetary authorities have increasingly focused on implementing policies to ensure price stability and strengthen central bank independence. Simultaneously, in the fiscal area, market development has allowed public debt managers to focus more on cost minimization. This “divorce” of monetary and debt management functions in no way lessens the need for effective coordination of monetary and fiscal policy if overall economic performance is to be optimized and maintained in the long term. This paper analyzes these issues based on a review of the relevant literature and of country experiences from an institutional and operational perspective.

The Sovereign Debt Crisis
The Sovereign Debt Crisis

Author: Anton Brender

Publisher:

Published: 2013

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9789461383372

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"The Sovereign Debt Crisis," 2012 edition, looked at how governments ran up substantial deficits in order to avert a worldwide depression and their subsequent attempts to rebalance their budgets. This updated edition concentrates on the delicate balancing act the economies of the United States, Japan, and the eurozone face between the present need to boost sluggish economic growth by providing sufficiently cheap, low-risk credit and the longer-term challenges of cutting massive debt and returning to a sustainable fiscal policy. The authors argue that many of the euro area economies, having noticeable difficulty paying their international debts, are in a sovereign debt crisis, while America and Japan are, for now, holding steady but in real danger of slipping into crisis. The book shows how the process has evolved in these three major developed economies and how their policy choices impact global financial markets.

World Economic Outlook, April 2009
World Economic Outlook, April 2009

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2009-04-22

Total Pages: 252

ISBN-13: 1589068068

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This edition of the World Economic Outlook explores how a dramatic escalation of the financial crisis in September 2008 provoked an unprecedented contraction of activity and trade, despite active policy responses. It presents economic projections for 2009 and 2010, and also looks beyond the current crisis, considering factors that will shape the landscape of the global economy over the medium term, as businesses and households seek to repair the damage. The analysis also outlines the difficult policy challenges presented by the overwhelming imperative to take all steps necessary to restore financial stability and revive the global economy, and the longer-run need for national actions to be mutually supporting. The first of two analytical chapters, "What Kind of Economic Recovery?" explores the shape of the eventual recovery. The second, "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging and Developing Economies," focuses on the role of external financial linkages and financial stress in transmitting economic shocks.

World Economic Outlook, September 2011
World Economic Outlook, September 2011

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Published: 2011-09-20

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9781616351199

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The September 2011 edition of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which is now in a dangerous new phase. Global activity has weakened and become more uneven, confidence has fallen sharply recently, and downside risks are growing. Against a backdrop of unresolved structural fragilities, a barrage of shocks hit the international economy this year, including the devastating Japanese earthquake and tsunami, unrest in some oil-producing countries, and the major financial turbulence in the euro area. Two of the forces now shaping the global economy are high and rising commodity prices and the need for many economies to address large budget deficits. Chapter 3 examines the inflationary effects of commodity price movements and the appropriate monetary policy response. Chapter 4 explores the implications of efforts by advanced economies to restore fiscal sustainability and by emerging and developing economies to tighten fiscal policy to rebuild fiscal policy room and in some cases to restrain overheating pressures.

Global Financial Stability Report, October 2017
Global Financial Stability Report, October 2017

Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Financial Systems Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-10-11

Total Pages: 139

ISBN-13: 1484308395

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The October 2017 Global Financial Stability Report finds that the global financial system continues to strengthen in response to extraordinary policy support, regulatory enhancements, and the cyclical upturn in growth. It also includes a chapter that examines the short- and medium-term implications for economic growth and financial stability of the past decades’ rise in household debt. It documents large differences in household debt-to-GDP ratios across countries but a common increasing trajectory that was moderated but not reversed by the global financial crisis. Another chapter develops a new macroeconomic measure of financial stability by linking financial conditions to the probability distribution of future GDP growth and applies it to a set of 20 major advanced and emerging market economies. The chapter shows that changes in financial conditions shift the whole distribution of future GDP growth.