The Present Value of Corporate Profits: A Forecasters' Survey Perspective
The Present Value of Corporate Profits: A Forecasters' Survey Perspective

Author: Michal Andrle

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-01-16

Total Pages: 24

ISBN-13: 1484395085

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This paper presents and discusses the estimates of the present value of corporate profits in the United States from 1984 to 2018. To value the expected income stream, it uses the long-range forecasts of professional forecasters for pre-tax corporate earnings and long-term Treasury note yields, sourced from the Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey. The appraised value of corporate earnings can point in real time at periods where market prices are deviating from valuations implied by expected earnings and interest rates. Market participants' forecasts seem to interpret most of the earnings fluctuations as permanent, underestimating the cyclical fluctuations The over-reaction to transitory shocks and changes in long-term outlook leads to swings in the valuation, in line with swings in the observed market prices.

Forecasting Company Profits
Forecasting Company Profits

Author: Fred Wellings

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 1998-08-24

Total Pages: 221

ISBN-13: 1855739143

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In the first book to look from a thoroughly practical perspective on the crucial business of profits forecasting, Fred Wellings provides an integrated approach to the theories which underpin the forecasting process. This approach also recognises the limitations faced by the outsider in the real world where both time and hard facts may be in equally short supply. It lays emphasis on the patterns of industrial and corporate behaviour and the forecaster's ability to recognise and anticipate these patterns. The first part of the book covers the industrial background within which the individual companies operate, and part two moves the forecaster on from the industry to the company.

New Determinants of Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Accuracy
New Determinants of Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Accuracy

Author: Tanja Klettke

Publisher: Springer Science & Business

Published: 2014-04-28

Total Pages: 120

ISBN-13: 3658056347

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Financial analysts provide information in their research reports and thereby help forming expectations of a firm’s future business performance. Thus, it is essential to recognize analysts who provide the most precise forecasts and the accounting literature identifies characteristics that help finding the most accurate analysts. Tanja Klettke detects new relationships and identifies two new determinants of earnings forecast accuracy. These new determinants are an analyst’s “general forecast effort” and the “number of supplementary forecasts”. Within two comprehensive empirical investigations she proves these measures’ power to explain accuracy differences. Tanja Klettke’s research helps investors and researchers to identify more accurate earnings forecasts.

Economic and Business Forecasting
Economic and Business Forecasting

Author: John E. Silvia

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2014-03-10

Total Pages: 400

ISBN-13: 1118569547

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Discover the secrets to applying simple econometric techniques to improve forecasting Equipping analysts, practitioners, and graduate students with a statistical framework to make effective decisions based on the application of simple economic and statistical methods, Economic and Business Forecasting offers a comprehensive and practical approach to quantifying and accurate forecasting of key variables. Using simple econometric techniques, author John E. Silvia focuses on a select set of major economic and financial variables, revealing how to optimally use statistical software as a template to apply to your own variables of interest. Presents the economic and financial variables that offer unique insights into economic performance Highlights the econometric techniques that can be used to characterize variables Explores the application of SAS software, complete with simple explanations of SAS-code and output Identifies key econometric issues with practical solutions to those problems Presenting the "ten commandments" for economic and business forecasting, this book provides you with a practical forecasting framework you can use for important everyday business applications.

Business Forecasting
Business Forecasting

Author: A. Reza Hoshmand

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2009-12-04

Total Pages: 563

ISBN-13: 1135257124

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The information age has brought greater interconnection across the world, and transformed the global marketplace. To remain competitive, business firms look for ways of improving their ability to gauge business and economic conditions around the world. At the same time, advances in technology have revolutionized the way we process information and prepare business and economic forecasts. Secondary data searches, data collection, data entry and analysis, graphical visualization, and reporting can all be accomplished with the help of computers that provide access to information not previously available. Forecasters should therefore learn the techniques and models involved, as applied in this new era. Business Forecasting: A Practical Approach is intended as an applied text for students and practitioners of forecasting who have some background in economics and statistics. The presentation is conceptual in nature with emphasis on rationale, application, and interpretation of the most commonly used forecasting techniques. The goal of this book is to provide students and managers with an overview of a broad range of techniques and an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. It is based on the assumption that forecasting skills are best developed and retained by starting with simple models, followed by repeated exposure to real world examples. The book makes extensive use of international examples to amplify concepts.

Government Budget Forecasting
Government Budget Forecasting

Author: Jinping Sun

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2017-09-25

Total Pages: 637

ISBN-13: 1351565117

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Revenue and expenditure forecasting plays an important role in public budgeting and financial management, particularly during times of financial constraint, when citizens impose greater accountability upon government to use taxpayer dollars more efficiently. Despite its significance, revenue and expenditure forecasting is often overlooked in the budget process, and there is an imbalance between practice and research in this area. Based on the collaboration of budget scholars and practitioners, Government Budget Forecasting fulfills two purposes: Enhances the understanding of revenue and expenditure estimation both theoretically and practically Stimulates dialogue and debate among practitioners and academicians to identify good forecast practices as well as areas for improvement Divided into four parts, this comprehensive reference first examines forecast practices at the federal, state, and local levels, drawing on case studies that include California, Texas, and Louisiana. It then explores consensus systems and risk assessment, considering political factors and the costs of forecast errors. The text concludes with a call to transparency and guidance from a code of ethics, and a look at forecasting practices in emerging countries.

How to Forecast: A Guide for Business
How to Forecast: A Guide for Business

Author: James Morrell

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2017-11-22

Total Pages: 170

ISBN-13: 1351744577

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This title was first published in 2001. Forecasting is an essential discipline in the planning and running of a business: not only for the business plan and annual budget but for the appraisal of investment projects, the commissioning of research as well as the appraisal of the competition and the feasibility of making acquisitions. Managers are continually confronted with the need to take decisions, and being able to construct a route map of the future is a key way of determining a course of action. This book offers a practical guide to forecasting the environment in which a firm operates. The author goes through the key areas which can affect a business. He includes those which are out of the firm's control such as fiscal and monetary policy, population levels and the labour market; and those that are, such as costs, prices, profits and product development.

Issues in Finance, Business, and Economics Research: 2013 Edition
Issues in Finance, Business, and Economics Research: 2013 Edition

Author:

Publisher: ScholarlyEditions

Published: 2013-05-01

Total Pages: 234

ISBN-13: 1490109420

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Issues in Finance, Business, and Economics Research: 2013 Edition is a ScholarlyEditions™ book that delivers timely, authoritative, and comprehensive information about Additional Research. The editors have built Issues in Finance, Business, and Economics Research: 2013 Edition on the vast information databases of ScholarlyNews.™ You can expect the information about Additional Research in this book to be deeper than what you can access anywhere else, as well as consistently reliable, authoritative, informed, and relevant. The content of Issues in Finance, Business, and Economics Research: 2013 Edition has been produced by the world’s leading scientists, engineers, analysts, research institutions, and companies. All of the content is from peer-reviewed sources, and all of it is written, assembled, and edited by the editors at ScholarlyEditions™ and available exclusively from us. You now have a source you can cite with authority, confidence, and credibility. More information is available at http://www.ScholarlyEditions.com/.