Forecasting China's Future

Forecasting China's Future

Author: Roger Irvine

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2015-06-26

Total Pages: 224

ISBN-13: 1317424107

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China’s future development is likely to have a huge impact on twenty-first century global outcomes. It is therefore surprising that, thus far, so little attention has been given to comparing and evaluating expert forecasts of China’s future in the post-Mao era. This book presents an illuminating and comprehensive summary record of contrasting and competing expert forecasts and judgements about the major issues confronting China within four principal domains – political, economic, environmental, and international. After considering the principal forecasting methods available to experts, the author comments critically on the degree of success achieved in using those methods and emphasises the confusion created by the polarisation of opinion and by the failure of many experts to accept the high degree of uncertainty that characterises most of the key issues. The book recommends a new approach based on the study of a hierarchy of critical uncertainties and on continuing analysis of opposing expert opinions about these uncertainties. It emphasises the potential for both positive and negative outcomes for these critical uncertainties, and the importance of maximising the potential for positive outcomes through improved analytical and policy frameworks. Providing insights for specialists and non-specialists into the most critical issues that will determine China’s future direction, this book will be of particular interest to students and scholars of political, economic, environmental, and international relations issues in China and Asia, as well as to readers in business and government.


The China Price

The China Price

Author: Alexandra Harney

Publisher: Penguin

Published: 2008

Total Pages: 356

ISBN-13: 9781594201578

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A landmark eyewitness exposŽ of how China's factory economy competes for Western business by selling out its workers, its environment, and its future In The China Price, acclaimed Financial Timescorrespondent Alex Harney uncovers the truth about how China is able to offer such amazingly low prices to the rest of the world. What she has discovered is a brutal, Hobbesian world in which intense pricing pressure from Western companies combines with ubiquitous corruption and a lack of transparency to exact an unseen and unconscionable toll in human misery and environmental damage. In a way, Harney shows, what goes on in China is inevitable. In a country with almost no transparency, where graft is institutionalized and workers have little recourse to the rule of law, incentives to lie about business practices vastly outweigh incentives to tell the truth. Harney reveals that despite a decade of monitoring factories, outsiders all too often have no idea of the conditions under which goods from China are made. She exposes the widespread practice of using a dummy or model factory as a company's false window out to the world, concealing a vast number of illegal factories operating completely off the books. Some Western companies are better than others about sniffing out such deception, but too many are perfectly happy to embrace plausible deniability as long as the prices remain so low. And in the gold-rush atmosphere that's infected the country, in which everyone is clamoring to get rich at once and corruption is rampant, it's almost impossible for the Chinese government's own underfunded regulatory mechanisms to do much good at all. But perhaps the most important revelation in The China Priceis how fast change is coming, one way or another. A generation of Chinese flocked from the rural interior of the country to its coastline, where its factory work largely is, in the largest mass migration in human history. But that migration has slowed dramatically, in no small part because of widespread disenchantment with the way of life the factories offer. As pollution in China's industrial cities worsens and their infrastructure buckles, and grassroots activism for more legal recourse grows, pressures are mounting on the system that will not dissipate without profound change. Managing the violence of that change is the greatest challenge China faces in the near future, and managing its impact on the world economy is the challenge that faces us all.


The China Reader

The China Reader

Author: David Shambaugh

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Published: 2016-03-29

Total Pages: 569

ISBN-13: 019062003X

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The rise of China is the most significant development in world affairs in this generation. No nation in history has risen as quickly or modernized as rapidly as has China over the four decades. This sixth edition of The China Reader chronicles the diverse aspects of this transition since the late-1990s. It is comprehensive in scope and draws upon both primary Chinese sources and secondary Western analyses written by the world's leading experts on contemporary China. Perfectly suited as both a textbook for students as well as for specialists and the public alike, the volume covers the full range of China's internal and external developments. During the past three decades China dramatically modernized its economy and taken a position as one of the two major powers in the world. Its mega-economy has skyrocketed to being the second largest in the world, and will soon surpass the United States on aggregate. The physical transformation of the country has been extraordinary to witness, with infrastructure development unparalleled in human history. Modern cities featuring futuristic architecture have literally risen from farmland across the country. As China has developed domestically, it has also taken its place as a major power on the world stage. Whether in its relations with other powers-the United States, Russia, and European Union-with its neighbors in Asia or other countries across the world, China is now a major factor in international relations. Its businesses are "going global" and its people are establishing their footprint from Antarctica to outer space. For all its newfound prowess, China's rise has not been a smooth process. Domestically, the nation's juggernaut economy has produced numerous negative social and environmental side-effects. Its political system remains anachronistic and authoritarian, with substantial repression. Externally, Beijing's rapid military modernization and regional territorial claims have alarmed China's neighbors. Its relationship with the United States is complex and increasingly strained. And its "soft power" remains limited. Still, the rise of China is the story of the current era. The China Reader is a perfect window into the complexities of this historic process.


International Trade and Investment Law

International Trade and Investment Law

Author: Leal-Arcas, Rafael

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

Published: 2010-05-28

Total Pages: 360

ISBN-13: 1781000778

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This timely book examines international trade and investment law at various levels of governance, including unilateral, bilateral, regional, and multilateral arrangements.


South-South Globalization

South-South Globalization

Author: S. Mansoob Murshed

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2011-06-16

Total Pages: 385

ISBN-13: 1136707719

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Two prominent features of the current global economy are the world-wide recession brought about by the recent financial crisis, and the emergence of major economic powers from within the developing world such as Brazil, China and India. The former represents the failure of global regulatory policies and macroeconomic imbalances between surplus and deficit countries; the latter is symptomatic of a partial shift in economic power towards developing nations, who are often collectively labelled the global South. The macroeconomic imbalances are unsustainable in the longer run as they mean greater absorption relative to income in deficit nations; they require corrective action and international policy coordination. Reducing imbalances also requires large developing countries to raise their domestic consumption and also imports from the rest of the world and international financial institutions to operate as a lender of last resort. Furthermore, the engines of global growth, especially for developing countries, may no longer lie solely in the traditional developed country markets in the USA, Europe and Japan, known collectively as the global North. Rather South-South trade is growing rapidly, and that could be an engine of growth for the global economy, including both developed and developing countries. The various chapters in this edited volume address issues surrounding global imbalances and the prospects for growth in developing countries propelled by South-South interaction. This book should be of interest to students and researchers focussing on political economics, international economics, globalization, global imbalance and the world-wide recession after 2008.


India and China

India and China

Author: Ernest H. Preeg

Publisher: CSIS

Published: 2008

Total Pages: 324

ISBN-13: 9780974567433

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In recent years has become increasingly clear that both China and India are competing with the US for technological supremacy as well as market share. Preeg, whose credits include senior positions in finance and development in the US government as well as academic posts, gives policy makers in the private and public sectors fair warning as he analyzes the rise of science and technology in China and India, their development in trade and export competitiveness, the rise of Indian and Chinese multinational companies and their technological innovations, and the geopolitical and geostrategic dimensions of their move into technology. He also describes the response of the US, including recent international financial, trade and investment policy, domestic economic policy responses to international competition, and the future of the role of America as leader in what has become a triangular form of leadership.


Global Perspectives on US Foreign Policy

Global Perspectives on US Foreign Policy

Author: S. Burt

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2013-10-10

Total Pages: 391

ISBN-13: 1137357665

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This book explores aspects of US foreign policy, including the development process as well as the policy itself in respect to various countries and regions and some significant issues around the globe today. Providing insight into non-US perspectives of American foreign policy, the book contextualizes the effects of policy on external nations.


Global Economic Crisis and the Politics of Diversity

Global Economic Crisis and the Politics of Diversity

Author: Y. Atasoy

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2014-01-01

Total Pages: 476

ISBN-13: 1137293683

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An interdisciplinary group of scholars from the global North and South critically explore the global deepening of market economy models. In case studies including Asia, the Middle East and Latin America, they examine the associated tensions of livelihood and ecology in the current context of global economic crisis, considering issues of natural ecology, water use, health, childcare, technology and work, migration, and economic growth. The analysis of the complex connections between domestic and global dynamics across diverse cases and issues helps reveal that state-centric approaches are still hovering over the politics of restructuring through which conformity to economic growth is addressed.