The Committee's report examines the Government's Pre-Budget Report 2005 (Cm. 6701, ISBN 0101670125) published in December 2005. Issues discussed include: the state of the economy (including the UK Presidency of the G8, UK economic growth estimates for 2006 and beyond, and consumer spending) and public finance matters; as well as issues relating to taxation and pensions. Recommendations made include that the Treasury should give at least four weeks notice of the date of the Pre-Budget Report in order to enable sufficient parliamentary scrutiny, and if this target is not met, the Treasury should give an account of the reasons why.
This report by the National Audit Office, made under sections 156 and 157 of the Finance Act 1998, examines the conventions and assumptions underlying the Treasury's fiscal projections within the Pre-Budget Report 2005 (Cm 6701 ISBN 0101670125).
This report from the Treasury Committee examines the recent economic analysis and assessment of the UK economy as outlined in the 2006 pre-budget report, and sets out a number of conclusions and recommendations, including: the Committee welcomes the recent rise in the growth rate of business investment, but with the caveat that the downside risk as highlighted in a previous weakness for business investment, remains unexplained; that several risks exist around the consumption growth forecast, including the potential of house prices to fall, and the increase of personal insolvency; the employment rate rise is commended, but a lack of migration statistics in relation to the labour market, means an overall assessment is not possible; although an improved forecast for economic growth in 2006, the Treasury has not forecast an improvement in the fiscal position; the Government appears to be on track to meet the golden rule in the current economic cycle, but will start the next economic cycle with its current budget in deficit; the Committee recommends also that the Treasury, in future Budgets and Pre-Budget reports provide a fuller explanation of its current forecast of the start and end dates of the current economic cycle; also, future Budget and Pre-Budget reports should provide a breakdown of reported efficiency gains by department, and further to enhance transparency and enable effective scrutiny, the Treasury should require departments in their departmental annual reports and Autumn Performance reports in 2007 and in later years to provide consistent and comprehensive information on progress against efficiency targets; the Committee expressed dissatisfaction at the lateness and vagueness of information in relation to expenditure on education, but approved the early announcement of capital spending plans for education up to 2010-11; the Committee though does welcome the Government's decision to commission and publish a range of reviews informing future economic policy, including tax policy; the Pre-Budget report is seen as an effective instrument of fiscal consultation, but this could be enhanced if Parliament and the public were given greater notice of the date of the report, perhaps 4 weeks before the statement is due to be made; where tax changes carry significant risk of forestalling activity or distorting market behaviour, such as the unusual timing and implementation of the increases in Air Passenger Duty, the Committee feels, as a general rule, that those increases should not come into force until the House of Commons has had an opportunity to come to a formal decision on such an increase.
The Committee reports on the progress made by the Treasury in placing environmental objectives at the heart of its fiscal policies. This year's pre-Budget report (Cm. 6701, December 2005, ISBN 0101670125) is found to be inadequate, especially in the context of UK CO2 emissions actually increasing once more. No significant new measures were announced, and the Committee sees a continued slowing down of the Treasury's momentum in turning rhetoric into action. It believes the Treasury should redefine Air Passenger Duty (APD) as an environmental tax and that APD rates should more accurately reflect the carbon emissions of the flights to which they apply. Charging APD on flights rather than passengers could also act as an incentive to more efficient use of aviation fuel. The Committee also recommends action on aviation fuel duty, biofuels, car energy efficiency, steps to wean the economy off over-reliance on oil, stamp duty and council tax reductions for homes built or refurbished to high environmental standards. Each pre-Budget report should include figures on total revenue from the climate change levy, aggregates levy, and landfill tax. Although the Treasury accepts the principle of increasing taxes on "bads" rather than "goods" its reluctance for bold reform of the tax system mystifies the Committee. A Green tax Commission should be reconsidered, to develop a proper communications strategy to sell the environmental programme to the public. The Committee exhorts the Government to make moves on the climate change problem, as waiting for universal agreement is a recipe for stasis. Finally, the Committee regrets the Treasury's decision to abolish the Operating and Financial Review required from large companies, in that it appears to view sustainable reporting as an optional extra. It hopes that the proposed new business reviews will continue to require some form of social and environmental disclosure from companies.
This report acknowledges that deciding the right time for fiscal consolidation requires making a fine judgement about the resilience of the recovery. It emphasises that a plan to restore the health of the public finances must deal with the structural deficit. While the Treasury aims to cut the deficit from 9% of GDP to 3.6% of GDP in four years, the expert witnesses who examined it all criticised the document for not providing enough information about how this will be achieved. Future Budgets and PBRs should attempt to quantify the downside risks around the structural deficit forecast. There will be uncertainty in these figures, but they are produced as part of the Spending Review process so there appears to be no argument against their publication. Similarly the Bank of England publishes forecasts showing the possible range of inflation rates and publishing information about debt interest on a similar basis would be useful. The recession appears to have had substantially less impact on the labour market than might have been feared, though concern remains about the level of youth unemployment. Repossessions have been far lower than expected however it is recommended that the Treasury proceeds cautiously over the timing of removal of Government support in this area. We do not want to see a return to the times of easy credit, but the Government needs to remain aware of the risk that lending will not support renewed private sector growth as the public sector retrenches. The purpose of the tax on bank bonuses is to change behaviour so that banks increase their capital, rather than providing large discretionary payments to employees. The next Parliament needs to examine the effectiveness of any regime introduced by the Financial Services Bill, in terms both of its success in altering bank behaviour, and of its effect on the competitiveness of the UK financial sector
The Treasury Committee's report on the Pre-Budget Report 2008 (Cm. 7484, ISBN 9780101748421) considers that the balance of risks to the Treasury's forecast, for a swift recovery in economic growth for 2010 after a significant decline in output in 2009, is on the downside. The report highlights the lack of bank lending as the single most critical problem for the economy in the near term. The overall effect of the fiscal stimulus remains uncertain, the cost of the reduction in VAT is considerable and, in the view of the majority of commentators, the Treasury's analysis of its impact is an optimistic one. The report notes that the risk of a self-reinforcing deflationary cycle exists in the UK economy at present and recommends that the Treasury prepare and publish the actions it may consider taking should a period of "quantitative easing" be needed. While the need for lower interest rates to maintain economic growth is crucial at the present time, the needs of savers must not be forgotten and the Treasury should consider measures that will also support savers at this difficult time. The report notes with concern that the Pre-Budget Report contains no policy measures which will significantly advance meeting the 2010 child poverty target.
This report, from the Treasury Committee, considers the state of the United Kingdom economy, the public finances and individual tax measures in the 2007 Pre-Budget Report (Cm. 7227, ISBN 0101722729). The Committee examines the Pre-Budget Report under the following areas: the real economy; the public finances; taxation issues and the role of the Pre-budget report. The Committee has set out 21 conclusions and recommendations, including: that the risk remains that the credit crunch will have greater macroeconomic effect than expected; that the Treasury needs to recast the way in which it presents the risks to the economic forecasts in both Pre-budget and Budget reports; the Committee reiterates an earlier recommendation, that the Government review the golden rule such that it becomes more forward-looking and less dependent upon the dating of the economic cycle; the Committee expressed concern about the reform of the capital gains tax regime and the possible detrimental effects that the withdrawal of taper relief could have on small businesses, employee shareholders and longer-term investment; that it is important that the Pre-Budget retains a focus on consultation on fiscal measures that may be included in the forthcoming budget.
The Budget sets out the Government's plans for taxation, public spending and economic growth for the coming year. Details announced include: an annual growth rate of 2.5 per cent for 2006-07 with a forecast of 2.75 to 3.25 per cent for 2007-08; an inflation rate of two per cent this year; and public sector borrowing on course for a £16bn surplus over the economic cycle ending in 2010-11, with net borrowing set at £37 billion for this year and £36 billion next year, falling to £23 billion in the year to 2010-11. Measures announced in the 2006 Budget include: i) the climate change levy to be indexed in line with inflation from 2007, a new vehicle excise duty rate of £210 for the least fuel efficient cars (4x4 cars or SUVs) and the establishment of a new £1bn energy and environmental research institute funded by government and private industry; ii) measures to help to single parents into work and tackle child poverty including an increase in child benefit, child tax credit and childcare vouchers and a top-up to child trust fund accounts at the age of seven; iii) an increase in duty of nine pence on cigarettes and one pence on beer, with a freeze in duty on whisky and other spirits; iv) the exemption on stamp duty raised to £125,000 and a rise in the level of inheritance tax from £275,000 to £325,000; v) the level of investment in schools to rise from £5.6 billion to £8 billion a year; vi) free off peak national bus travel for pensioners in every part of the country; and vii) funding, in partnership with commercial sponsorship, to support top athletes to prepare for the 2012 Olympics.
Environmental taxes as a proportion of all taxation peaked at 9.7 per cent in 1999 and have declined ever since, falling to 7.3 per cent in 2006. This report sets out a number of conclusions and recommendations covering different areas of environmental policy. (1) Aviation: the reform of Air Passenger Duty into a levy per flight rather than per passenger is welcome, but tax on aviation must be significantly increased so as to stabilise demand and resulting emissions. (2) Motoring: road transport emissions in England increased by 12 per cent between 1997 and 2006, and are forecast to increase, so it is important for the Budget to put in place rises in fuel duty. (3) Carbon capture and storage: the Treasury must provide more assistance for the development of this technology in the UK. (4) Shadow price of carbon: this should be increased to discourage the approval of carbon-intensive policies and projects, and so improve the prospects of achieving the reduction in global emission targets. (5) Environmental transformation fund: the Pre-Budget report (Cm. 7227, ISBN 9780101722728) announced funding for such a fund, with £370 million to be spent over three years, but only £170 million was new money. (6) Emissions trading: it must be clear when reported emissions figures incorporate the purchase of carbon credits, otherwise they will give a false picture of the decarbonisation progress within the UK. (7) Public service agreements: the new PSA is too diffuse, with no clear departmental targets for reducing emissions; the Government should consider setting emissions reduction targets for specific sectors of the economy. The Treasury has not responded on the scale or with the urgency recommended by the Stern Review (ISBN 9780102944204) and the 2008 Pre-Budget report needs to establish a coherent set of measures to help deliver the UK's 2020 domestic and EU targets on emissions and renewable energy.
The Budget presents an updated assessment of the economy and public finances and reports on Government policies. It: shows that the economy is growing strongly and the Government is meeting its fiscal rules; announces a long-term investment programme for schools and sets out further measures to help young people develop skills; sets out reform to reduce the regulatory burden on business; announces free local travel for people over 60 and provide £200 towards the council tax bill for those over 65; makes a commitment to increase Child Tax Credit in line with earnings; doubles the threshold for stamp duty; increases the special reserve for military operations; announces a better targeted Local Enterprise Growth Initiative; introduces measures to modernise the tax system; defers any increase in fuel duty until September 2005.
