The Committee has examined the Treasury's Pre-Budget Report (PBR) (Cm. 6408, ISBN 010164082X) published in December 2004, which set forecasts for the economy and public finances and reported on the implementation of the Government's long-term goals. Conclusions reached by the Committee include: that the UK's presidencies in 2005 of both the G8 and the EU puts the Government in a strong position to play a positive role in advancing discussions on global economic reform and fairer trade with developing countries; the Treasury's growth forecast for 2005 is more optimistic than the external consensus, although the gap probably lies within the bounds of forecasting error and the Treasury's recent forecasting record for economic growth has been good; there are concerns that it is unlikely the Treasury will be able to meet its 'golden rule' for current borrowing levels for public finances. The Committee also restates its previous criticism for the short period of notice given for publication of the PBR.
The Committee's report examines the Government's Pre-Budget Report 2005 (Cm. 6701, ISBN 0101670125) published in December 2005. Issues discussed include: the state of the economy (including the UK Presidency of the G8, UK economic growth estimates for 2006 and beyond, and consumer spending) and public finance matters; as well as issues relating to taxation and pensions. Recommendations made include that the Treasury should give at least four weeks notice of the date of the Pre-Budget Report in order to enable sufficient parliamentary scrutiny, and if this target is not met, the Treasury should give an account of the reasons why.
This report from the Treasury Committee examines the recent economic analysis and assessment of the UK economy as outlined in the 2006 pre-budget report, and sets out a number of conclusions and recommendations, including: the Committee welcomes the recent rise in the growth rate of business investment, but with the caveat that the downside risk as highlighted in a previous weakness for business investment, remains unexplained; that several risks exist around the consumption growth forecast, including the potential of house prices to fall, and the increase of personal insolvency; the employment rate rise is commended, but a lack of migration statistics in relation to the labour market, means an overall assessment is not possible; although an improved forecast for economic growth in 2006, the Treasury has not forecast an improvement in the fiscal position; the Government appears to be on track to meet the golden rule in the current economic cycle, but will start the next economic cycle with its current budget in deficit; the Committee recommends also that the Treasury, in future Budgets and Pre-Budget reports provide a fuller explanation of its current forecast of the start and end dates of the current economic cycle; also, future Budget and Pre-Budget reports should provide a breakdown of reported efficiency gains by department, and further to enhance transparency and enable effective scrutiny, the Treasury should require departments in their departmental annual reports and Autumn Performance reports in 2007 and in later years to provide consistent and comprehensive information on progress against efficiency targets; the Committee expressed dissatisfaction at the lateness and vagueness of information in relation to expenditure on education, but approved the early announcement of capital spending plans for education up to 2010-11; the Committee though does welcome the Government's decision to commission and publish a range of reviews informing future economic policy, including tax policy; the Pre-Budget report is seen as an effective instrument of fiscal consultation, but this could be enhanced if Parliament and the public were given greater notice of the date of the report, perhaps 4 weeks before the statement is due to be made; where tax changes carry significant risk of forestalling activity or distorting market behaviour, such as the unusual timing and implementation of the increases in Air Passenger Duty, the Committee feels, as a general rule, that those increases should not come into force until the House of Commons has had an opportunity to come to a formal decision on such an increase.
The Committee's report examines the measures in the latest Pre-Budget report (Cm 6408, ISBN 010164082X) and 2005 Budget (HCP 372, session 2004-05, ISBN 0102932484) in relation to environmental objectives, as well as more generally the Government's progress on environmental tax reform and spending. It also examines the increasing use of Regulatory Impact Assessments as the central mechanism for assessing costs and benefits of legislation, including environmental impacts; and summarises key energy policy issues in the context of the Climate Change Programme review currently being undertaken. Conclusions drawn include concern that it has taken so long for the Government to acknowledge its Climate Change strategy is off course, and that the difficulties encountered in reducing emissions reflect the need for a far greater priority to be given to mainstreaming environmental objectives. The Committee recommends that the Government should establish a Cabinet Committee for Climate Change to drive forward action and to draw together responsibility for energy policy in one department.
The Budget presents an updated assessment of the economy and public finances and reports on Government policies. It: shows that the economy is growing strongly and the Government is meeting its fiscal rules; announces a long-term investment programme for schools and sets out further measures to help young people develop skills; sets out reform to reduce the regulatory burden on business; announces free local travel for people over 60 and provide £200 towards the council tax bill for those over 65; makes a commitment to increase Child Tax Credit in line with earnings; doubles the threshold for stamp duty; increases the special reserve for military operations; announces a better targeted Local Enterprise Growth Initiative; introduces measures to modernise the tax system; defers any increase in fuel duty until September 2005.
Environmental taxes as a proportion of all taxation peaked at 9.7 per cent in 1999 and have declined ever since, falling to 7.3 per cent in 2006. This report sets out a number of conclusions and recommendations covering different areas of environmental policy. (1) Aviation: the reform of Air Passenger Duty into a levy per flight rather than per passenger is welcome, but tax on aviation must be significantly increased so as to stabilise demand and resulting emissions. (2) Motoring: road transport emissions in England increased by 12 per cent between 1997 and 2006, and are forecast to increase, so it is important for the Budget to put in place rises in fuel duty. (3) Carbon capture and storage: the Treasury must provide more assistance for the development of this technology in the UK. (4) Shadow price of carbon: this should be increased to discourage the approval of carbon-intensive policies and projects, and so improve the prospects of achieving the reduction in global emission targets. (5) Environmental transformation fund: the Pre-Budget report (Cm. 7227, ISBN 9780101722728) announced funding for such a fund, with £370 million to be spent over three years, but only £170 million was new money. (6) Emissions trading: it must be clear when reported emissions figures incorporate the purchase of carbon credits, otherwise they will give a false picture of the decarbonisation progress within the UK. (7) Public service agreements: the new PSA is too diffuse, with no clear departmental targets for reducing emissions; the Government should consider setting emissions reduction targets for specific sectors of the economy. The Treasury has not responded on the scale or with the urgency recommended by the Stern Review (ISBN 9780102944204) and the 2008 Pre-Budget report needs to establish a coherent set of measures to help deliver the UK's 2020 domestic and EU targets on emissions and renewable energy.
The Committee's report examines key measures contained in the 2006 Budget (HCP 968, session 2005-06; ISBN 0102937311), as well as the discussing the general state of the UK economy and specific public finance issues. Amongst the Committee's conclusions: rising gas and oil prices are key features of the overall economic outlook and the Committee recommends the Government should make a report to Parliament on progress to secure independent investigation of European gas markets; and it questions the Government's use of taxation instruments as a mechanism to achieve its environmental objectives, for example its decision to freeze the rate of air passenger duty (APD) for a fifth year running.
