We analyze jointly the distribution of automobile accidents and the choice of deductible. One prediction in the literature is that high risk individuals will choose small deductibles within risk classes, when there is asymmetrical information. We show, however, that risk classification is sufficient, in the sense that there is no residual adverse selection on risk types in the automobile insurance portfolio studied.
This article examines adverse selection in insurance markets within a two-dimensional information framework, where policyholders differ in both their riskiness and degree of risk aversion. Using this setup, we first build a theoretical model to make equilibrium predictions on competitive insurance screening. We study several variations on the pattern of information asymmetry. The outcomes range from full risk separation, to partial separation, to complete pooling of different risk types. Next, we examine results of this construction with an empirical investigation using a cross sectional observation from a major automobile insurer in Singapore. To test for evidence of adverse selection, we propose a copula regression model to jointly examine the relationship between policyholders' coverage choice and accident occurrence. The association parameter in copula provides evidence of asymmetric information. Furthermore, we invoke the theory to identify subgroups of policyholders for whom one may expect the risk-coverage correlation and adverse selection to arise. The empirical findings are largely consistent with theoretical predictions.
This paper tests the predictions of adverse selection models using data from the automobile insurance market. I find that, in contrast to what recent research has suggested, the evidence is consistent with the presence of informational asymmetries in this market: new customers choosing higher insurance coverage are associated with more accidents. Consistent with the presence of learning by policyholders about their risk type, such a coverage-accident correlation exists only for policyholders with three or more years of driving experience prior to joining their insurer. The informational advantage that new customers with driving experience have over the insurer appears to arise in part from under-reporting of past claim history. I find evidence that policyholders switching to new insurers are disproportionately ones with a poor claims history and that new customers under-report their past claims history when joining a new insurer.
The identification of information problems in different markets is a challenging issue in the economic literature. This paper performs tests of residual asymmetric information in the French automobile insurance market for the 1995-1997 period. This market is characterized by the presence of a regulated experience-rating scheme (bonus-malus). Contract choices are strongly associated with the bonus-malus of policyholders. We have access to longitudinal survey data with dynamic information both on claims and accidents. We propose a causality test to distinguish pathways through which a positive correlation arises between contract choice and accidents. We find evidence of moral hazard among a sub-group of policyholders with significant driving experience (5-15 years). We distinguish this moral hazard estimate from adverse selection and learning. Policyholders with less experience have a combination of learning and moral hazard, whereas no residual information problem is found for policyholders with more than 15 years of experience.
This new edition of the Handbook of Insurance reviews the last forty years of research developments in insurance and its related fields. A single reference source for professors, researchers, graduate students, regulators, consultants and practitioners, the book starts with the history and foundations of risk and insurance theory, followed by a review of prevention and precaution, asymmetric information, risk management, insurance pricing, new financial innovations, reinsurance, corporate governance, capital allocation, securitization, systemic risk, insurance regulation, the industrial organization of insurance markets and other insurance market applications. It ends with health insurance, longevity risk, long-term care insurance, life insurance financial products and social insurance. This second version of the Handbook contains 15 new chapters. Each of the 37 chapters has been written by leading authorities in risk and insurance research, all contributions have been peer reviewed, and each chapter can be read independently of the others.
This book discusses the nature of exogeneity, a central concept in standard econometrics texts, and shows how to test for it through numerous substantive empirical examples from around the world, including the UK, Argentina, Denmark, Finland, and Norway. Part I defines terms and provides the necessary background; Part II contains applications to models of expenditure, money demand, inflation, wages and prices, and exchange rates; and Part III extends various tests of constancy and forecast accuracy, which are central to testing super exogeneity. About the Series Advanced Texts in Econometrics is a distinguished and rapidly expanding series in which leading econometricians assess recent developments in such areas as stochastic probability, panel and time series data analysis, modeling, and cointegration. In both hardback and affordable paperback, each volume explains the nature and applicability of a topic in greater depth than possible in introductory textbooks or single journal articles. Each definitive work is formatted to be as accessible and convenient for those who are not familiar with the detailed primary literature.
Addressing the challenge of covering heath care expenses—while minimizing economic risks. Moral hazard—the tendency to change behavior when the cost of that behavior will be borne by others—is a particularly tricky question when considering health care. Kenneth J. Arrow’s seminal 1963 paper on this topic (included in this volume) was one of the first to explore the implication of moral hazard for health care, and Amy Finkelstein—recognized as one of the world’s foremost experts on the topic—here examines this issue in the context of contemporary American health care policy. Drawing on research from both the original RAND Health Insurance Experiment and her own research, including a 2008 Health Insurance Experiment in Oregon, Finkelstein presents compelling evidence that health insurance does indeed affect medical spending and encourages policy solutions that acknowledge and account for this. The volume also features commentaries and insights from other renowned economists, including an introduction by Joseph P. Newhouse that provides context for the discussion, a commentary from Jonathan Gruber that considers provider-side moral hazard, and reflections from Joseph E. Stiglitz and Kenneth J. Arrow. “Reads like a fireside chat among a group of distinguished, articulate health economists.” —Choice
Most academic and policy commentary represents adverse selection as a severe problem in insurance, which should always be deprecated, avoided or minimised. This book gives a contrary view. It details the exaggeration of adverse selection in insurers' rhetoric and insurance economics, and presents evidence that in many insurance markets, adverse selection is weaker than most commentators suggest. A novel arithmetical argument shows that from a public policy perspective, 'weak' adverse selection can be a good thing. This is because a degree of adverse selection is needed to maximise 'loss coverage', the expected fraction of the population's losses which is compensated by insurance. This book will be valuable for those interested in public policy arguments about insurance and discrimination: academics (in economics, law and social policy), policymakers, actuaries, underwriters, disability activists, geneticists and other medical professionals.
In the 1970's, the research agenda in insurance was dominated by optimal insurance coverage, security design, and equilibrium under conditions of imperfect information. The 1980's saw a growth of theoretical developments including non-expected utility, price volatility, retention capacity, the pricing and design of insurance contracts in the presence of multiple risks, and the liability insurance crisis. The empirical study of information problems, financial derivatives, and large losses due to catastrophic events dominated the research agenda in the 1990's. The Handbook of Insurance provides a single reference source on insurance for professors, researchers, graduate students, regulators, consultants, and practitioners, that reviews the research developments in insurance and its related fields that have occurred over the last thirty years. The book starts with the history and foundations of insurance theory and moves on to review asymmetric information, risk management and insurance pricing, and the industrial organization of insurance markets. The book ends with life insurance, pensions, and economic security. Each chapter has been written by a leading authority in insurance, all contributions have been peer reviewed, and each chapter can be read independently of the others.
