This book charts the incidence of territorial changes and military conflicts from 1816 to 1980. Using statistical and descriptive analysis, the authors attempt to answer three related sets of questions: * When does military conflict accompany the process of national independence? * When do states fight over territorial changes and when are such transactions completed peacefully? * How do territorial changes affect future military conflict between the states involved in the exchange?
Redrawing the Map to Promote Peace, by Jaroslav Tir, primarily focuses on the management of territorial disputes and how they are altered by territorial change. Territorial shifts can sometimes lead to war, which is why Tir explores the contributing factors that lead to these disputes. He states two primary variables associated with the change-dispute relationship: the value of the territory in question and how the territorial changes occur. Tir also discusses three types of territorial change: interstate territorial transfers, secessions, and unifications. Despite the likelihood of territorial dispute stemming from territorial changes, this book provides evidence supporting the claim that territorial change can be handled in a manner that could decrease the probability of dispute. Tir offers insight into some contributing factors of these disputes and how they impact the hope for peace in the future.
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Future developments in war, armed conflict and international relations are central to our collective fate in this century. This book looks forward by considering the forces that will drive changes in military organizations, sources of conflict, the power of states and the nature of the international system. New military technologies will alter how wars are fought and will influence the balance of power. Changes in the global environment will provide new causes of conflict and will change economic priorities. As a result, the state will survive as the key social institution and populations will look to it to acquire and to distribute scarce resources like water, energy and land. Many of the changes that seem transformatory today, like globalization, the internet and mass consumerism, will be shown to be less significant than we believe them to be. Hirst puts such changes into perspective by comparing them with the revolutionary changes in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries in Europe: the firepower revolution, the rise of the sovereign territorial state and the parallel development of the international system, and the creation of world trade. These basic structures of the modern world are still with us and will remain, despite major changes in twenty-first-century society. This book will appeal to students of politics, political sociology & international relations as well as the interested general reader.
Future developments in war, armed conflict and international relations are central to our collective fate in this century. This book looks forward by considering the forces that will drive changes in military organizations, sources of conflict, the power of states and the nature of the international system. New military technologies will alter how wars are fought and will influence the balance of power. Changes in the global environment will provide new causes of conflict and will change economic priorities. As a result, the state will survive as the key social institution and populations will look to it to acquire and to distribute scarce resources like water, energy and land. Many of the changes that seem transformatory today, like globalization, the internet and mass consumerism, will be shown to be less significant than we believe them to be. Hirst puts such changes into perspective by comparing them with the revolutionary changes in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries in Europe: the firepower revolution, the rise of the sovereign territorial state and the parallel development of the international system, and the creation of world trade. These basic structures of the modern world are still with us and will remain, despite major changes in twenty-first-century society. This book will appeal to students of politics, political sociology & international relations as well as the interested general reader.
Violent conflicts today are complex and increasingly protracted, involving more nonstate groups and regional and international actors. It is estimated that by 2030—the horizon set by the international community for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals—more than half of the world’s poor will be living in countries affected by high levels of violence. Information and communication technology, population movements, and climate change are also creating shared risks that must be managed at both national and international levels. Pathways for Peace is a joint United Nations†“World Bank Group study that originates from the conviction that the international community’s attention must urgently be refocused on prevention. A scaled-up system for preventive action would save between US$5 billion and US$70 billion per year, which could be reinvested in reducing poverty and improving the well-being of populations. The study aims to improve the way in which domestic development processes interact with security, diplomacy, mediation, and other efforts to prevent conflicts from becoming violent. It stresses the importance of grievances related to exclusion—from access to power, natural resources, security and justice, for example—that are at the root of many violent conflicts today. Based on a review of cases in which prevention has been successful, the study makes recommendations for countries facing emerging risks of violent conflict as well as for the international community. Development policies and programs must be a core part of preventive efforts; when risks are high or building up, inclusive solutions through dialogue, adapted macroeconomic policies, institutional reform, and redistributive policies are required. Inclusion is key, and preventive action needs to adopt a more people-centered approach that includes mainstreaming citizen engagement. Enhancing the participation of women and youth in decision making is fundamental to sustaining peace, as well as long-term policies to address the aspirations of women and young people.
This is a book on conflict and consensus aimed at the general reader. In active, plain and direct language it makes the seemingly abstract and complex issues simple. Its view of peace is well-rounded, tough-minded, one that well understands the difficult world of social and personal violence and conflict. At its heart is a simple finding: "to wage peace we need to foster freedom." The human race can best achieve that simple aim by "leaving people alone to form their own communities." "The Conflict Helix "avoids the ambiguous in favor of the categorical; the hedged, qualified statement for the direct Rummel presents a series of basic principles, each concerning an aspect of conflict and peace - psychological, interpersonal, societal, international - and each aspect having its own master principle. These principles are not mere organizational props, but are deeply theoretical and empirically fundamental. The volume expresses the core ideas, results and conclusions of Rummel's major, five-volume work on "Understanding Conflict and War. "In discarding technical material and focusing on principles and meaning, "The Conflict Helix "presents an executive summary of a lifetime of work in a digestible form. In light of recent events in Europe, Asia and Latin American this work takes on a special poignancy for the developing no less than the industrialized worlds. Hence, this book should be of value to the general reader as well as professionals and advanced students of international politics.
