Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis

Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis

Author: Alberto Alesina

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2013-06-25

Total Pages: 596

ISBN-13: 022601844X

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The recent recession has brought fiscal policy back to the forefront, with economists and policy makers struggling to reach a consensus on highly political issues like tax rates and government spending. At the heart of the debate are fiscal multipliers, whose size and sensitivity determine the power of such policies to influence economic growth. Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis focuses on the effects of fiscal stimuli and increased government spending, with contributions that consider the measurement of the multiplier effect and its size. In the face of uncertainty over the sustainability of recent economic policies, further contributions to this volume discuss the merits of alternate means of debt reduction through decreased government spending or increased taxes. A final section examines how the short-term political forces driving fiscal policy might be balanced with aspects of the long-term planning governing monetary policy. A direct intervention in timely debates, Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis offers invaluable insights about various responses to the recent financial crisis.


The Impact on Consumption and Saving of Current and Future Fiscal Policies

The Impact on Consumption and Saving of Current and Future Fiscal Policies

Author: Katherine Grace Carman

Publisher:

Published: 2003

Total Pages: 30

ISBN-13:

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This paper uses ESPlannerTM -- a life-cycle, financial planning model -- to investigate the potential impact of alternative fiscal policies on current consumption and saving. Studies to date have examined the response of current consumption to tax-induced temporary and permanent income changes. To our knowledge however, no study has directly examined whether consumption smoothing is actually feasible. ESPlanner's saving and life insurance recommendations generate the smoothest possible survival-state contingent lifetime consumption path for the household without putting it into debt. Such consumption smoothing is predicted by economic theory and appears to accord closely, on average, with actual behavior. By running households through ESPlanner based on current policy as well as on alternative fiscal policies, one can easily compare the program's consumption response to hypothetical tax and transfer policy changes and assess the degree to which borrowing constraints may be playing a role in determining the size of those responses. The households used in our analysis are drawn from the Federal Reserve's 1995 Survey of Consumer Finances. This data set provides detailed information on household earnings, assets, housing, demographics, and retirement plans -- all of which is used by ESPlanner in formulating its recommendations. The policies we consider are tax hikes, tax cuts, social security benefit cuts, and the elimination of tax-deferred saving. Our analysis distinguishes between immediate and future policy changes as well as between permanent and temporary ones. Our results are influenced by the fact that a majority 57 percent of our sample of households, many of which are young, is borrowing-constrained and, thus, more responsive to current than future policy changes no matter how long their duration. The results are also very sensitive to the particular policy being enacted. Income tax changes, for example, have little effect on the consumption/saving of low-income households for the simple


Long-Run Growth Versus Welfare

Long-Run Growth Versus Welfare

Author: Manoj Atolia

Publisher:

Published: 2011

Total Pages: 41

ISBN-13:

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This paper analyzes the effects of distortionary taxes on growth and welfare in an endogenous growth model with a public capital externality. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy, and experiments are run under which the tax regime is shifted from the current mix of capital income, labor income, and consumption taxes to a fiscal policy regime with complete reliance on a single source of taxation, including lump-sum tax. We find that tax policy changes that induce higher growth rate do not necessarily result in higher welfare due to different transitory effects. In fact, a shift to capital income tax while delivering highest long-run growth results in lowest welfare. Furthermore, long-run gains take many years - a generation - to start getting realized. Among different sources of taxation, we find that, in the long run, complete reliance on a consumption tax dominates the current tax regime; however, the current tax regime dominates an exclusive labor income tax, which in turn is less welfare-reducing than an exclusive capital income tax. These results are due to the fact that taxes on labor income and capital income distort investment decisions in reproducible capital, i.e., human capital and physical capital, and therefore have cumulative effects that do not result from a tax on consumption. Unlike previous studies, we account for the welfare effects of transition using optimal decision rules all along the transition path.


Tax Policy and the Economy

Tax Policy and the Economy

Author: James M. Poterba

Publisher:

Published: 1997

Total Pages: 232

ISBN-13: 9780262161671

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Part of a series that presents recent research on the effects of taxation on economic performance and analyses of the effects of potential tax reforms, this volume includes: an evaluation of Medicaid in the 1980s; medical savings accounts; and implications of a broad-based consumption tax.


The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity

The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity

Author: Richard Hemming

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2002-12

Total Pages: 62

ISBN-13:

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This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.


Dynamics of Devaluation and "Equivalent" Fiscal Policies for a Small Open Economy

Dynamics of Devaluation and

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1989

Total Pages: 36

ISBN-13:

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In pursuing a steady-state reserve target, policymakers in small open economies can resort to devaluation or to temporary increases in public saving. This paper contrasts the dynamic implications of these alternative policies in a model with optimizing agents who possess perfect foresight. In general, the private sector cannot be insulated from the effects of the government’s reserve-accumulation policies. The dynamic effects of devaluation depend on the fiscal policy rule in effect. In contrast to devaluation, the “equivalent” fiscal policies imply discontinuities in private consumption and temporary tax increases may cause key macroeconomic variables to overshoot their steady-state values.


The Encyclopedia of Taxation & Tax Policy

The Encyclopedia of Taxation & Tax Policy

Author: Joseph J. Cordes

Publisher: The Urban Insitute

Published: 2005

Total Pages: 522

ISBN-13: 9780877667520

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"From adjusted gross income to zoning and property taxes, the second edition of The Encyclopedia of Taxation and Tax Policy offers the best and most complete guide to taxes and tax-related issues. More than 150 tax practitioners and administrators, policymakers, and academics have contributed. The result is a unique and authoritative reference that examines virtually all tax instruments used by governments (individual income, corporate income, sales and value-added, property, estate and gift, franchise, poll, and many variants of these taxes), as well as characteristics of a good tax system, budgetary issues, and many current federal, state, local, and international tax policy issues. The new edition has been completely revised, with 40 new topics and 200 articles reflecting six years of legislative changes. Each essay provides the generalist with a quick and reliable introduction to many topics but also gives tax specialists the benefit of other experts' best thinking, in a manner that makes the complex understandable. Reference lists point the reader to additional sources of information for each topic. The first edition of The Encyclopedia of Taxation and Tax Policy was selected as an Outstanding Academic Book of the Year (1999) by Choice magazine."--Publisher's website.


Monetary-fiscal Policy Interactions and Fiscal Stimulus

Monetary-fiscal Policy Interactions and Fiscal Stimulus

Author: Troy Davig

Publisher:

Published: 2009

Total Pages: 39

ISBN-13:

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Increases in government spending trigger substitution effects-both inter- and intra-temporal-and a wealth effect. The ultimate impacts on the economy hinge on current and expected monetary and fiscal policy behavior. Studies that impose active monetary policy and passive fiscal policy typically find that government consumption crowds out private consumption: higher future taxes create a strong negative wealth effect, while the active monetary response increases the real interest rate. This paper estimates Markov-switching policy rules for the United States and finds that monetary and fiscal policies fluctuate between active and passive behavior. When the estimated joint policy process is imposed on a conventional new Keynesian model, government spending generates positive consumption multipliers in some policy regimes and in simulated data in which all policy regimes are realized. The paper reports the model's predictions of the macroeconomic impacts of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act's implied path for government spending under alternative monetary-fiscal policy combinations.


The Economics Of Public Finance

The Economics Of Public Finance

Author: Alan Blinder

Publisher: Brookings Institution Press

Published: 2011-07-01

Total Pages: 452

ISBN-13: 0815714602

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This is the thirty-fifth volume in the Brookings Studies of Government Finance series. In the first of its four essays, “Analytical Foundations of Fiscal Policy,” Alan S. Blinder of Princeton University and Robert M. Solow of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology survey the theoretical and empirical underpinnings of fiscal policy. After discussing how the influence of fiscal policy on macroeconomic activity ought to be assessed, the authors examine and find inadequate the dictum that government should balance the budget rather than the economy. They defend—again both theoretically and empirically—the efficacy of fiscal policy against the monetarist challenge. From an examination of the lags and uncertainties in the operation of fiscal policy and an analysis of the 1968–70 income tax surcharge, they conclude that, although much remains to be learned about the econometrics of policy multipliers, the post-surcharge experience in no way undermines the theoretical foundations of fiscal policy. Where the burdens of various taxes fall has been a matter of intense interest to economic theorists in the last twenty years. As public expenditures (and taxpayer resistance) rise, not only must policy makers try to distribute the burdens of taxation equitably, but they must also attempt to move toward national goals by judicious use of tax instruments. George F. Break of the University of California at Berkeley, in “The Incidence and Economic Effects of Taxation,” a comprehensive review of recent tax literature, focuses on the theoretical studies that have helped to expand knowledge of tax incidence and the empirical studies that support newly developed hypotheses. In each area he surveys—the design of theoretical and general sales and income taxes; the effect of economic choices, both of individuals and businesses, on the national well-being—Break indicates the ground still to be covered and the potential benefits of further inquiry. In “Public Expenditure Budgeting,” Peter O. Steiner of the University of Michigan explores the literature dealing with the hard questions underlying public expenditures. What is the public interest? How does the community decide whether the government should undertake or finance a given activity, instead of leaving it to a private action or inaction? On what basis should incremental expenditure decisions of governmental units be made? Steiner reviews the various approaches scholars have taken to the difficult questions surrounding the appropriateness of governmental provision of particular goods and services. Although he finds none of the models fully satisfactory, his work contributes to the debate concerning the process by which collective values are articulated and collective decisions come to be accepted as binding. Dick Netzer’s “State-Local Finance and Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations” clarifies the debate that centered around the initial proposals for revenue sharing. The author, Dean of New York University’s Graduate School of Public Administration, explores the appropriate distribution of responsibility for public services among federal, state, and local governments, the appropriate revenue systems for the subnational governments, and the appropriate means of coordinating the systems with the responsibilities.