Floods and droughts have an increasing impact on societies worldwide. It is unlikely that the provision of flood protection infrastructure and reservoirs will eliminate this problem, especially as extreme events are expected to increase in probability and magnitude as a result of climate change. For this reason, the focus of water management has shifted to a risk-based approach in recent years; but this also has its limitations. This book examines system robustness as a new perspective on flood and drought risk management. The concept of robustness is familiar from other areas, such as engineering and biology. When a system is robust, it can remain functioning even when some components fail. Areas prone to flooding or drought can be understood as systems, and this book makes the concept of robustness operational by proposing quantifiable criteria. These criteria were tested in two case studies of flooding and two of drought, which demonstrate the applicability of the framework and provide insight into the system characteristics that influence system robustness. The book will contribute to decision-making in flood and drought risk management by providing additional decision criteria, and will be of interest to all those whose work involves the management of disastrous and uncertain flood and drought events.
It is predicted that climate change will result in big changes to the global distribution of rainfall, causing drought and desertification in some regions and floods in others. Already there are signs of such changes occurring, with particularly serious consequences for poorer countries. The need for international cooperation in managing the effects of climate change, and other influences on the hydrological cycle, is becoming urgent. Future wars may well be fought over water. This book is part of a series focusing on key issues in environmental science and technology. Focusing on the sustainability of water supplies to the growing populations throughout the world, this volume consists of articles contributed by a group of experts drawn from around the globe. Issues covered include: policy making in the European Union; rural water supplies in Africa; chemical monitoring and analytical methods; water use in agriculture; social justice in supplying water; potable water recycling, and sustainable water treatment. The book will be useful to those working in the water industry, policy makers and planners, researchers and environmental consultants, and students in environmental science, technology, engineering, and management. There is also much here to interest all concerned with major environmental issues such as climate change and the many other factors which influence the sustainability of water supplies.
Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise.
This volume includes the proceedings from Proceedings of the Ninth International Conference Fukuoka, Japan, June 4-7, 1996. This work represents a broad spectrum of new ideas in the field of applied artificial intelligence and expert systems, and serves to disseminate information regarding intelligent methodologies and their implementation in solving various problems in industry and engineering.
The study examines the global pattern and impacts of droughts through mapping several drought-related characteristics - either at a country level or at regular grid scales. It appears that arid and semi-arid areas also tend to have a higher probability of drought occurrence. It is illustrated that the African continent is lagging behind the rest of the world on many indicators related to drought-preparedness and that agricultural economies, overall, are much more vulnerable to adverse societal impacts of meteorological droughts. The study also examines the ability of various countries to satisfy their water needs during droughts using storage-related indices.
This publication lays out a strategy which identifies and presents a broad framework for integrated water resources planning and management, to increase the level of resilience to climate change in Himachal Pradesh. It is based on an assessment of the status of water resources in the state, including the present and planned water utilization examined within a framework of environment, conservation and sustainability. The strategy also examines the present institutional arrangements for water resources management and assesses the requirements for institutional development, strengthening and necessary reform measures to support the development of robust and sustainable water resources management.
Over the last three decades drought episodes have resulted in severe social problems in Mediterranean countries, receiving broad attention from the international scientific and policy communities. The experiences in the development and implementation of drought management plans highlight the success and challenges of coping with drought for societies with different vulnerabilities and emphasize risk-based drought management as a critical approach to mitigate the impacts associated to drought-induced water shortages. Based on these experiences and the current methods for evaluating risk, the book synthesises guidelines for drought management that link science and policy and that can be applied to other regions. The book comprises a collection of papers divided into four sections that appeal to a broad audience. First, the social and hydrological context of Mediterranean countries is presented, discussing the interactions that have resulted in the complex institutional framework, and highlighting the importance of stakeholder involvement and awareness building for successful drought management. This section emphasises the role of organizations, institutions, and civil stakeholders involved in drought preparedness and mitigation and/or on water management for designing effective risk based strategies that mitigate the effects of drought in agriculture and water supply systems. Second, the book presents an academic approach to risk evaluation, including characterization of drought episodes, development of indicators of risk in hydrological and agricultural systems, and analysis of the role of economic instruments and groundwater for risk mitigation. This section finalises with the description of an integrated method for evaluating social vulnerability based on indicators that include the capacity to anticipate, cope, and respond to drought. The third section includes a collection of case studies that include the description of effective measures taken in the past. These case studies provide the context for developing demand driven guidelines that may be applied to other regions. The authors of these chapters can be viewed as stakeholders in drought management, since they represent a broad range of sectors and institutions from Mediterranean European and North African countries. The topics addressed have implications for the international policy community interested in disaster mitigation, agricultural policy, and development. Finally a synthesis of the management actions is presented in four chapters. Monitoring and preparedness planning is the essential first step for moving from disaster to risk management in response to drought. The management actions related to agriculture and water supply systems are presented in two different chapters but with a common conceptual framework based on the use of drought indicators for evaluating the levels of drought risk (pre-alert, alert, and emergency), that allow establishing linkages between science and policy. The final chapter discuses the lessons learned and application to other regions.
