China's impressive economic growth over recent decades has been accompanied by a highly unsustainable use of natural resources, including by the energy sector. Environmental and resource problems have triggered the development of new energy strategies aimed at raising China's energy using efficiency, thereby decoupling the consumption of polluting energy from economic growth. China therefore appears to slowly detach itself from its past, highly polluting economic growth model, moving to a more environmentally sustainable economy. With 'green' energy sources now accounting for 15% of consumed energy, the country has nonetheless still a long way to go.
The transformation of China's economy since 1978 is one of the most profound economic transformations in history. Among the most important dimensions of China's transformation is the way rapid economic growth drove energy consumption. All economic activity depends in one way or another upon energy but there is now overwhelming evidence that much of the way we use energy has undesirable externalities, including potentially destabilising effects on the earth's climate system. China is already the world's largest energy user and prospects for future economic growth and therefore energy consumption remain strong. China's energy use is therefore a critical area of analysis. The thesis addresses three core questions. Why has China's energy consumption grown so rapidly since 2002? Is China's economy peculiar in its huge and rapidly growing energy consumption or does it conform to the experience of other countries when they were at similar stages of development? What are the implications for China's energy future? Input-Output Analysis (lOA) and Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA) are employed to isolate energy relationships with rural and urban household consumption, government expenditure, investment, trade and production. Data from the 2002 IO table (122 sectors) and the 2007 IO table (135 sectors), China's energy statistical yearbooks and a variety of supplementary sources are used. One key contribution of the thesis is to place analysis of energy use in the context of China's broad economic development, drawing on economic growth literature to do so. The second central contribution in contrast to existing literature is extensive interpretation of results. The results indicate China's very rapid energy use growth between 2002 and 2005 may have been a temporary effect linked to China's WTO membership. China's manufacturing export boom beginning in 2002 drove a large portion of the energy use growth, while energy-saving technological improvements declined between 2002-2005. Longer-term drivers are urbanisation, increasing household consumption, and resumption of policy- as well as market-driven energy saving technological progress. Technological progress has been most evident in traded goods sectors, especially importing sectors. A shift to petroleum rather than coal-based energy was observed. The 12th Five Year Plan calls for significantly slower energy use growth. The analysis suggests implementing changes required to meet energy-use targets will be challenging. In particular, the plan calls for a substantial reduction in investment growth and a shift in production toward services that has so far been elusive. China's energy future carries very important strategic implications. Hundreds of millions of Chinese are now aspiring to higher standards of living, inevitably requiring ever more supplies of energy. Understanding the drivers of China's energy-use growth is crucial if it is to be managed so as to ameliorate the problems associated with energy use while still ensuring the Chinese people can realize their aspirations toward a healthier, more comfortable and more fulfilling life.
This book discusses energy use and its environmental footprint in China, as well as issues concerning the transitional green growth of its economy, a subject of great importance in light of China’s size and its impressive record of economic growth. The book includes expert overviews and empirical studies prepared by internationally recognized experts in the field. The empirical techniques utilized by the contributors include econometrics, mathematical programming, and index numbers. The book will provide readers a deeper understanding of the energy and environmental issues China now faces during its transitional growth period, and of the strategies available for resolving these issues. The 2016 Asia-Pacific Productivity Conference, held in Nankai University, Tianjin China from July 7-10, was organized by Nankai University’s College of Economic and Social Development (CESD) in collaboration with the School of Economics Nankai University and Collaborative Innovation Center for China Economy. The primary objective of the event was to highlight the latest developments in efficiency and productivity research.
Understanding the relationship between economic growth and electricity use is essential for power systems planning. This need is particularly acute now in China, as the Chinese economy is going through a transition to a more consumption and service oriented economy. This study uses 20 years of provincial data on gross domestic product (GDP) and electricity consumption to examine the relationship between these two factors. We observe a plateauing effect of electricity consumption in the richest provinces, as the electricity demand saturates and the economy develops and moves to a more service-based economy. There is a wide range of forecasts for electricity use in 2030, ranging from 5,308 to 8,292 kWh per capita, using different estimating functions, as well as in existing studies. It is therefore critical to examine more carefully the relationship between electricity use and economic development, as China transitions to a new growth phase that is likely to be less energy and resource intensive. The results of this study suggest that policymakers and power system planners in China should seriously re-evaluate power demand projections and the need for new generation capacity to avoid over-investment that could lead to stranded generation assets.
This book studies the limits imposed by the depletion of fossil fuels and the requirements of climate stabilization on economic growth with a focus on China. The book intends to examine the potentials of various energy resources, including oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, wind, solar, and other renewables, as well as energy efficiency. Unlike many other books on the subject, this book intends to argue that, despite the large potentials of renewable energies and energy efficiency, economic growth eventually will have to be brought to an end as China and the world undertake the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energies. China has overtaken the US to become the world’s largest energy consumer and greenhouse gas emitter. Their energy consumption is dominated by coal and China now accounts for one quarter of the world’s total carbon dioxide emissions. Moreover, China is set to become the world’s largest oil importer in the next decade. This book will consider energy development in the broader context of economic and social changes, especially the historical dynamics of the capitalist world system. Historical lessons of capitalism and socialism will be discussed. The book will evaluate the implications of ecological limits to growth on the economic system and argue that the existing capitalist system is fundamentally incompatible with ecological sustainability.
This open access book is an encyclopaedic analysis of the current and future energy system of the world’s most populous country and second biggest economy. What happens in China impacts the planet. In the past 40 years China has achieved one of the most remarkable economic growth rates in history. Its GDP has risen by a factor of 65, enabling 850,000 people to rise out of poverty. Growth on this scale comes with consequences. China is the world’s biggest consumer of primary energy and the world’s biggest emitter of CO2 emissions. Creating a prosperous and harmonious society that delivers economic growth and a high quality of life for all will require radical change in the energy sector, and a rewiring of the economy more widely. In China’s Energy Revolution in the Context of the Global Energy Transition, a team of researchers from the Development Research Center of the State Council of China and Shell International examine how China can revolutionise its supply and use of energy. They examine the entire energy system: coal, oil, gas, nuclear, renewables and new energies in production, conversion, distribution and consumption. They compare China with case studies and lessons learned in other countries. They ask which technology, policy and market mechanisms are required to support the change and they explore how international cooperation can smooth the way to an energy revolution in China and across the world. And, they create and compare scenarios on possible pathways to a future energy system that is low-carbon, affordable, secure and reliable.
This book places a current topic—energy transition—within the historical background of human social development and explores the value and significance of energy transition for economic transition in the course of economic growth. It sheds light on the basic logic and the distinguishing characteristics of energy transition by reviewing the history of energy transition development in order to provide a new perspective for understanding and analyzing China's energy transition considering lessons from the German and American energy transition experiences. This book will be of interest to environmentalists, economists, and journalists.
At the beginning of 2015, a documentary about China's smog, Under the Dome, caused a nationwide discussion about air pollution and economic development in China. The focus of the controversy was which was more important, protecting the environment or the livelihood of Chinese people? Since 1978, as a developing country with a population of 1.3 billion, China's economy has experienced rapid growth. China's energy consumption structure has been heavily relying on fossil fuels, which is the main cause of smog. Should China sacrifice the environment for economic growth? The purpose of this paper is to help people understand the contradiction of economic growth and environmental protection in China. Although there are problems with China's current energy structure and emission control, the Chinese government has taken significant efforts to solve energy and environmental problems, and achievements have been obtained. Without a reduction in energy intensity since 1978, China would consume three times the energy it does today to sustain its economic growth. For the control of smog, China should optimize energy structure in the long term, and increase the use of high-quality energy in the short term. In other words, China should find a sustainable way to protect the environment while developing its economy. A country which is driven by energy can have a clean environment and protect its resources.
This open access book is an encyclopaedic analysis of the current and future energy system of the world’s most populous country and second biggest economy. What happens in China impacts the planet. In the past 40 years China has achieved one of the most remarkable economic growth rates in history. Its GDP has risen by a factor of 65, enabling 850,000 people to rise out of poverty. Growth on this scale comes with consequences. China is the world’s biggest consumer of primary energy and the world’s biggest emitter of CO2 emissions. Creating a prosperous and harmonious society that delivers economic growth and a high quality of life for all will require radical change in the energy sector, and a rewiring of the economy more widely. In China’s Energy Revolution in the Context of the Global Energy Transition, a team of researchers from the Development Research Center of the State Council of China and Shell International examine how China can revolutionise its supply and use of energy. They examine the entire energy system: coal, oil, gas, nuclear, renewables and new energies in production, conversion, distribution and consumption. They compare China with case studies and lessons learned in other countries. They ask which technology, policy and market mechanisms are required to support the change and they explore how international cooperation can smooth the way to an energy revolution in China and across the world. And, they create and compare scenarios on possible pathways to a future energy system that is low-carbon, affordable, secure and reliable.
An Exploration into China's Economic Development and Electricity Demand by the Year 2050, is an exploratory study of national and regional economic development, energy demand and electricity demand in China by the year of 2050. China's economy grows rapidly and it is now the second largest economy in the world. In 2010, GDP reached 40 trillion Yuan and electricity consumption was second only to the United States, reaching 4.19 trillion kWh. Many people follow future (long-term) trends of Chinese economic development and demand for electricity closely and are especially interested in how development will look in 2030 and 2050. Based on the ILE4, this book examines the main features of China's economic development and electricity consumption since the economic reform of the 1980's. It includes an analysis of the intrinsic connection between electricity demand and economic growth and the changing trends of the adjustment of economic structure, regional layout optimization and development of the energy intensive industry, as well as how these factors impact China's demand for electricity. In addition, the book considers the next 20 years of China's economic development and growing demand for electricity based on the detailed simulations conducted by ILE4 in regional economic development and electricity consumption in 2030 as well as the prospective of China's electricity consumption and economic growth in the year 2050.
