In this paper, we provide a suite of tools for empirical market design, including optimal nonlinear pricing in intensive-margin consumer demand, as well as a broad class of related adverse-selection models. Despite significant data limitations, we are able to derive informative bounds on demand under counterfactual price changes. These bounds arise because empirically plausible DGPs must respect the Law of Demand and the observed shift(s) in aggregate demand resulting from a known exogenous price change(s). These bounds facilitate robust policy prescriptions using rich, internal data sources similar to those available in many real-world applications. Our partial identification approach enables viable nonlinear pricing design while achieving robustness against worst-case deviations from baseline model assumptions. As a side benefit, our identification results also provide useful, novel insights into optimal experimental design for pricing RCTs.
This paper develops identification and estimation methods for dynamic structural models when agents' actions are unobserved by econometricians. We provide conditions under which choice probabilities and latent state transition rules are nonparametrically identified with a continuous state variable in a single-agent dynamic discrete choice model. Our identification results extend to (1) models with serially correlated unobserved heterogeneity and continuous choices, (2) cases in which only discrete state variables are available, and (3) dynamic discrete games. We apply our method to study moral hazard problems in US gubernatorial elections. We find that the probabilities of shirking increase as the governors approach the end of their terms.
This dissertation consists of three chapters that study unobserved heterogeneity in panel and network data models. In Chapter 1, I propose a semi-nonparametric panel data model with a latent group structure. I assume that individual parameters are heterogeneous across groups but homogeneous within a group while the group membership is unknown. I first approximate the infinite-dimensional function with a sieve expansion; then, I propose a Classifier-Lasso(C-Lasso) procedure to simultaneously identify the individuals' membership and estimate the group-specific parameters. I show that: (i) the classification exhibits uniform consistency; (ii) C-Lasso and post-Lasso estimators achieve oracle properties so that they are asymptotically equivalent to infeasible estimators as if the group membership is known; and (iii) the estimators are consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. Simulations demonstrate an excellent finite sample performance of this approach in both classification and estimation. In Chapter 2 (joint with Wenyu Zhou), we study a nonparametric additive panel regression model with grouped heterogeneity. The model can be regarded as a natural extension to the heterogeneous panel model studied in Su, Shi, and Phillips (2016). We propose to estimate the nonparametric components using a sieve-approximation-based Classifier-Lasso method. We establish the asymptotic properties of the estimator and show that they enjoy the so-called oracle property. In addition, we present the decision rule for group classification and establish its consistency. Then, a BIC-type information criterion is developed to determine the group pattern of each nonparametric component. We further investigate the finite sample performance of the estimation method and the information criterion through Monte Carlo simulations. Results show that both work well. Finally, we apply the model and the estimation method to study the demand for cigarettes in the United States using panel data of 46 states from 1963 to 1992. In Chapter 3, I study a network sample selection model in which 1) bilateral fixed effects enter the pairwise outcome equation additively; 2) link formation depends on latent variables from both sides nonparametrically. I first propose a four-cycle structure to difference out the fixed effects; next, utilizing the idea proposed in Auerbach (2019), I manage to use the kernel function to control for the selection bias. I then introduce estimators for the parameters of interest and characterize their asymptotic properties.
Macroprudential stress testing (MaPST) is becoming firmly embedded in the post-crisis policy-frameworks of financial-sectors around the world. MaPSTs can offer quantitative, forward-looking assessments of the resilience of financial systems as a whole, to particularly adverse shocks. Therefore, they are well suited to support the surveillance of macrofinancial vulnerabilities and to inform the use of macroprudential policy-instruments. This report summarizes the findings of a joint-research effort by MCM and the Systemic-Risk-Centre, which aimed at (i) presenting state-of-the-art approaches on MaPST, including modeling and implementation-challenges; (ii) providing a roadmap for future-research, and; (iii) discussing the potential uses of MaPST to support policy.
This book aims to fill the gap between panel data econometrics textbooks, and the latest development on 'big data', especially large-dimensional panel data econometrics. It introduces important research questions in large panels, including testing for cross-sectional dependence, estimation of factor-augmented panel data models, structural breaks in panels and group patterns in panels. To tackle these high dimensional issues, some techniques used in Machine Learning approaches are also illustrated. Moreover, the Monte Carlo experiments, and empirical examples are also utilised to show how to implement these new inference methods. Large-Dimensional Panel Data Econometrics: Testing, Estimation and Structural Changes also introduces new research questions and results in recent literature in this field.
The GVAR is a global Vector autoregression model of the global economy. The model was initially developed in the early 2000 by Professor Pesaran and co-authors, for the main purpose of analysing credit risk in a globalised economy. Starting from mid-2000 the model was substantially enlarged in the context of a project financed by the ECB, to comprise all major economies and the Euro area as a whole. The purpose of this version was to exploit the rich modelisation of international linkages in order to simulate and analyse global macro scenarios of high policy interest. The rich, yet manageable, specification of international linkages has stimulated a vast literature on the GVAR. Since early 2011, the basic model - and its data base - has also available on a dedicated GVAR-Toolbox website with an easy-to-use interface allowing practical applications by an extended audience, as well as more complex analysis by the expert public. The book provides an overview of the extensions and applications of the GVAR which have been developed in recent years. Such applications are grouped in three main categories: 1) International transmission and forecasting; 2) Finance applications; and 3) Regional applications. By using a language which is accessible to not econometricians, the book reaches out to the extended audience of practitioners and policy makers interested in understanding channels and impacts of international linkages.
V.l: Mathematical and statistical methods in econometrics; Econometric models; Estimation and computation; v.2: Testing; Time series topics; Special topics in econometrics; v.3: Special topics in econometrics; Selected applications and uses of econometrics.
Although standard mixed effects models are useful in a range of studies, other approaches must often be used in correlation with them when studying complex or incomplete data. Mixed Effects Models for Complex Data discusses commonly used mixed effects models and presents appropriate approaches to address dropouts, missing data, measurement errors, censoring, and outliers. For each class of mixed effects model, the author reviews the corresponding class of regression model for cross-sectional data. An overview of general models and methods, along with motivating examples After presenting real data examples and outlining general approaches to the analysis of longitudinal/clustered data and incomplete data, the book introduces linear mixed effects (LME) models, generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), nonlinear mixed effects (NLME) models, and semiparametric and nonparametric mixed effects models. It also includes general approaches for the analysis of complex data with missing values, measurement errors, censoring, and outliers. Self-contained coverage of specific topics Subsequent chapters delve more deeply into missing data problems, covariate measurement errors, and censored responses in mixed effects models. Focusing on incomplete data, the book also covers survival and frailty models, joint models of survival and longitudinal data, robust methods for mixed effects models, marginal generalized estimating equation (GEE) models for longitudinal or clustered data, and Bayesian methods for mixed effects models. Background material In the appendix, the author provides background information, such as likelihood theory, the Gibbs sampler, rejection and importance sampling methods, numerical integration methods, optimization methods, bootstrap, and matrix algebra. Failure to properly address missing data, measurement errors, and other issues in statistical analyses can lead to severely biased or misleading results. This book explores the biases that arise when naïve methods are used and shows which approaches should be used to achieve accurate results in longitudinal data analysis.
