This book attempts to develope some new inferential procedures for time series regression models.An inferential method for a time series linear regression model with auto correlated disturbances using quarterly data, has been developed by proposing a test based on internally studentized residuals.Two modified estimation procedures have been proposed for time series regression models involving MA (1) and MA (q) process errors.Autoregressive moving averages and autoregressive conditionally heteroscadastic (ARCH) processesses have been specified systematically with their characteristics. The generalized ARCH model is specified and the effect of error structure on ARCH model has been explained. Two modified tests for detecting the problem of ARCH errors have been developed by using Box-pierce-lying test statistics based on internally studentized residuals. A new estimation procedure has been developed for ARCH model by using an interactive technique
The primary aim of this book is to provide modern statistical techniques and theory for stochastic processes. The stochastic processes mentioned here are not restricted to the usual AR, MA, and ARMA processes. A wide variety of stochastic processes, including non-Gaussian linear processes, long-memory processes, nonlinear processes, non-ergodic processes and diffusion processes are described. The authors discuss estimation and testing theory and many other relevant statistical methods and techniques.
A thorough review of the most current regression methods in time series analysis Regression methods have been an integral part of time series analysis for over a century. Recently, new developments have made major strides in such areas as non-continuous data where a linear model is not appropriate. This book introduces the reader to newer developments and more diverse regression models and methods for time series analysis. Accessible to anyone who is familiar with the basic modern concepts of statistical inference, Regression Models for Time Series Analysis provides a much-needed examination of recent statistical developments. Primary among them is the important class of models known as generalized linear models (GLM) which provides, under some conditions, a unified regression theory suitable for continuous, categorical, and count data. The authors extend GLM methodology systematically to time series where the primary and covariate data are both random and stochastically dependent. They introduce readers to various regression models developed during the last thirty years or so and summarize classical and more recent results concerning state space models. To conclude, they present a Bayesian approach to prediction and interpolation in spatial data adapted to time series that may be short and/or observed irregularly. Real data applications and further results are presented throughout by means of chapter problems and complements. Notably, the book covers: * Important recent developments in Kalman filtering, dynamic GLMs, and state-space modeling * Associated computational issues such as Markov chain, Monte Carlo, and the EM-algorithm * Prediction and interpolation * Stationary processes
This short monograph which presents a unified treatment of the theory of estimating an economic relationship from a time series of cross-sections, is based on my Ph. D. dissertation submitted to the University of Wisconsin, Madison. To the material developed for that purpose, I have added the substance of two subsequent papers: "Efficient methods of estimating a regression equation with equi-correlated disturbances", and "The exact finite sample properties of estimators of coefficients in error components regression models" (with Arora) which form the basis for Chapters 11 and III respectively. One way of increasing the amount of statistical information is to assemble the cross-sections of successive years. To analyze such a body of data the traditional linear regression model is not appropriate and we have to introduce some additional complications and assumptions due to the hetero geneity of behavior among individuals. These complications have been discussed in this monograph. Limitations of economic data, particularly their non-experimental nature, do not permit us to know a priori the correct specification of a model. I have considered several different sets of assumptionR about the stability of coeffi cients and error variances across individuals and developed appropriate inference procedures. I have considered only those sets of assumptions which lead to opera tional procedures. Following the suggestions of Kuh, Klein and Zellner, I have adopted the linear regression models with some or all of their coefficients varying randomly across individuals.
• Expanded on aspects of core model theory and methodology. • Multiple new examples and exercises. • Detailed development of dynamic factor models. • Updated discussion and connections with recent and current research frontiers.
Focusing on Bayesian approaches and computations using simulation-based methods for inference, Time Series: Modeling, Computation, and Inference integrates mainstream approaches for time series modeling with significant recent developments in methodology and applications of time series analysis. It encompasses a graduate-level account of Bayesian time series modeling and analysis, a broad range of references to state-of-the-art approaches to univariate and multivariate time series analysis, and emerging topics at research frontiers. The book presents overviews of several classes of models and related methodology for inference, statistical computation for model fitting and assessment, and forecasting. The authors also explore the connections between time- and frequency-domain approaches and develop various models and analyses using Bayesian tools, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods. They illustrate the models and methods with examples and case studies from a variety of fields, including signal processing, biomedicine, and finance. Data sets, R and MATLAB® code, and other material are available on the authors’ websites. Along with core models and methods, this text offers sophisticated tools for analyzing challenging time series problems. It also demonstrates the growth of time series analysis into new application areas.
On consistent estimates of the spectral density of a stationary time series; Analysis of a general system for the detection of amplitude-modulated noise; A central limit theorem for multilinear stochastic processes; Conditions that a stochastic process ber egodic; On consistent estimates of the spectrum of a stationary time series; On choosing an estimate of the spectral density function of a stationary time series; On asymptotically efficient consistent estimates of the spectral density function of a stationary time series; General considerations in the analysis of spectra; Mathematical considerations in the estimation of spectra; Spectral analysis of asymptotically stationary time series; On spectral analysis with missing observations and amplitude modulation; Notes on fourier analysis and spectral windows; Statistical inference on time series by Hilbert space methods; An approach to time series analysis; Regression analysis of continuous parameter time series; A new approach to the synthesis of optimal smoothing and prediction systems; Probability density functionals and reproducing kernel hilbert spaces; Extraction and detection problems and reproducing kernel hilbert spaces; On estimation of a probability density function and mode; On models for the probability of fatigue failure of a structure; An approach to empirical time series analysis.
This book compiles theoretical developments on statistical inference for time series and related models in honor of Masanobu Taniguchi's 70th birthday. It covers models such as long-range dependence models, nonlinear conditionally heteroscedastic time series, locally stationary processes, integer-valued time series, Lévy Processes, complex-valued time series, categorical time series, exclusive topic models, and copula models. Many cutting-edge methods such as empirical likelihood methods, quantile regression, portmanteau tests, rank-based inference, change-point detection, testing for the goodness-of-fit, higher-order asymptotic expansion, minimum contrast estimation, optimal transportation, and topological methods are proposed, considered, or applied to complex data based on the statistical inference for stochastic processes. The performances of these methods are illustrated by a variety of data analyses. This collection of original papers provides the reader with comprehensive and state-of-the-art theoretical works on time series and related models. It contains deep and profound treatments of the asymptotic theory of statistical inference. In addition, many specialized methodologies based on the asymptotic theory are presented in a simple way for a wide variety of statistical models. This Festschrift finds its core audiences in statistics, signal processing, and econometrics.
A comprehensive and timely edition on an emerging new trend in time series Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis: Regression, ANOVA, ARMA and GARCH sets a strong foundation, in terms of distribution theory, for the linear model (regression and ANOVA), univariate time series analysis (ARMAX and GARCH), and some multivariate models associated primarily with modeling financial asset returns (copula-based structures and the discrete mixed normal and Laplace). It builds on the author's previous book, Fundamental Statistical Inference: A Computational Approach, which introduced the major concepts of statistical inference. Attention is explicitly paid to application and numeric computation, with examples of Matlab code throughout. The code offers a framework for discussion and illustration of numerics, and shows the mapping from theory to computation. The topic of time series analysis is on firm footing, with numerous textbooks and research journals dedicated to it. With respect to the subject/technology, many chapters in Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis cover firmly entrenched topics (regression and ARMA). Several others are dedicated to very modern methods, as used in empirical finance, asset pricing, risk management, and portfolio optimization, in order to address the severe change in performance of many pension funds, and changes in how fund managers work. Covers traditional time series analysis with new guidelines Provides access to cutting edge topics that are at the forefront of financial econometrics and industry Includes latest developments and topics such as financial returns data, notably also in a multivariate context Written by a leading expert in time series analysis Extensively classroom tested Includes a tutorial on SAS Supplemented with a companion website containing numerous Matlab programs Solutions to most exercises are provided in the book Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis: Regression, ANOVA, ARMA and GARCH is suitable for advanced masters students in statistics and quantitative finance, as well as doctoral students in economics and finance. It is also useful for quantitative financial practitioners in large financial institutions and smaller finance outlets.
During the last two decades, many areas of statistical inference have experienced phenomenal growth. This book presents a timely analysis and overview of some of these new developments and a contemporary outlook on the various frontiers of statistics.Eminent leaders in the field have contributed 16 review articles and 6 research articles covering areas including semi-parametric models, data analytical nonparametric methods, statistical learning, network tomography, longitudinal data analysis, financial econometrics, time series, bootstrap and other re-sampling methodologies, statistical computing, generalized nonlinear regression and mixed effects models, martingale transform tests for model diagnostics, robust multivariate analysis, single index models and wavelets.This volume is dedicated to Prof. Peter J Bickel in honor of his 65th birthday. The first article of this volume summarizes some of Prof. Bickel's distinguished contributions.
