Statistical Inference in Calibrated Models
Author: Fabio Canova
Publisher:
Published: 1993
Total Pages: 48
ISBN-13:
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Statistical Inference as Severe Testing
Author: Deborah G. Mayo
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Published: 2018-09-20
Total Pages: 503
ISBN-13: 1108563309
DOWNLOAD EBOOKMounting failures of replication in social and biological sciences give a new urgency to critically appraising proposed reforms. This book pulls back the cover on disagreements between experts charged with restoring integrity to science. It denies two pervasive views of the role of probability in inference: to assign degrees of belief, and to control error rates in a long run. If statistical consumers are unaware of assumptions behind rival evidence reforms, they can't scrutinize the consequences that affect them (in personalized medicine, psychology, etc.). The book sets sail with a simple tool: if little has been done to rule out flaws in inferring a claim, then it has not passed a severe test. Many methods advocated by data experts do not stand up to severe scrutiny and are in tension with successful strategies for blocking or accounting for cherry picking and selective reporting. Through a series of excursions and exhibits, the philosophy and history of inductive inference come alive. Philosophical tools are put to work to solve problems about science and pseudoscience, induction and falsification.
Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography
Author: Jakub Bijak
Publisher: Springer Nature
Published: 2021-12-09
Total Pages: 277
ISBN-13: 303083039X
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis open access book presents a ground-breaking approach to developing micro-foundations for demography and migration studies. It offers a unique and novel methodology for creating empirically grounded agent-based models of international migration – one of the most uncertain population processes and a top-priority policy area. The book discusses in detail the process of building a simulation model of migration, based on a population of intelligent, cognitive agents, their networks and institutions, all interacting with one another. The proposed model-based approach integrates behavioural and social theory with formal modelling, by embedding the interdisciplinary modelling process within a wider inductive framework based on the Bayesian statistical reasoning. Principles of uncertainty quantification are used to devise innovative computer-based simulations, and to learn about modelling the simulated individuals and the way they make decisions. The identified knowledge gaps are subsequently filled with information from dedicated laboratory experiments on cognitive aspects of human decision-making under uncertainty. In this way, the models are built iteratively, from the bottom up, filling an important epistemological gap in migration studies, and social sciences more broadly.
Real Business Cycles
Author: James Hartley
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2013-07-04
Total Pages: 690
ISBN-13: 1134694784
DOWNLOAD EBOOKReal Business Cycle theory combines the remains of monetarism with the new classical macroeconomics, and has become one of the dominant approaches within contemporary macroeconomics today. This volume presents: * the authoritative anthology in RBC. The work contains the major articles introducing and extending the theory as well as critical literature * an extensive introduction which contains an expository summary and critical evaluation of RBC theory * comprehensive coverage and balance between seminal papers and extensions; proponents and critics; and theory and empirics. Macroeconomics is a compulsory element in most economics courses, and this book will be an essential guide to one of its major theories.
Simulation-based Inference in Econometrics
Author: Roberto Mariano
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Published: 2000-07-20
Total Pages: 488
ISBN-13: 9780521591126
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis substantial volume has two principal objectives. First it provides an overview of the statistical foundations of Simulation-based inference. This includes the summary and synthesis of the many concepts and results extant in the theoretical literature, the different classes of problems and estimators, the asymptotic properties of these estimators, as well as descriptions of the different simulators in use. Second, the volume provides empirical and operational examples of SBI methods. Often what is missing, even in existing applied papers, are operational issues. Which simulator works best for which problem and why? This volume will explicitly address the important numerical and computational issues in SBI which are not covered comprehensively in the existing literature. Examples of such issues are: comparisons with existing tractable methods, number of replications needed for robust results, choice of instruments, simulation noise and bias as well as efficiency loss in practice.
Sensitivity & Uncertainty Analysis, Volume 1
Author: Dan G. Cacuci
Publisher: CRC Press
Published: 2003-05-28
Total Pages: 304
ISBN-13: 0203498798
DOWNLOAD EBOOKAs computer-assisted modeling and analysis of physical processes have continued to grow and diversify, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have become indispensable investigative scientific tools in their own right. While most techniques used for these analyses are well documented, there has yet to appear a systematic treatment of the method based
Business Cycles
Author: Sumru G. Altug
Publisher: World Scientific
Published: 2010
Total Pages: 161
ISBN-13: 9812832785
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis title provides an overview of the modern theory and empirics of business cycles. The book examines the notion of a business cycle and discusses alternative approaches to modelling. It also discusses what lies ahead for modern business cycle theory.
Macroeconometrics and Time Series Analysis
Author: Steven Durlauf
Publisher: Springer
Published: 2016-04-30
Total Pages: 417
ISBN-13: 0230280838
DOWNLOAD EBOOKSpecially selected from The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics 2nd edition, each article within this compendium covers the fundamental themes within the discipline and is written by a leading practitioner in the field. A handy reference tool.
Effective Groundwater Model Calibration
Author: Mary C. Hill
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Published: 2006-08-25
Total Pages: 475
ISBN-13: 0470041072
DOWNLOAD EBOOKMethods and guidelines for developing and using mathematical models Turn to Effective Groundwater Model Calibration for a set of methods and guidelines that can help produce more accurate and transparent mathematical models. The models can represent groundwater flow and transport and other natural and engineered systems. Use this book and its extensive exercises to learn methods to fully exploit the data on hand, maximize the model's potential, and troubleshoot any problems that arise. Use the methods to perform: Sensitivity analysis to evaluate the information content of data Data assessment to identify (a) existing measurements that dominate model development and predictions and (b) potential measurements likely to improve the reliability of predictions Calibration to develop models that are consistent with the data in an optimal manner Uncertainty evaluation to quantify and communicate errors in simulated results that are often used to make important societal decisions Most of the methods are based on linear and nonlinear regression theory. Fourteen guidelines show the reader how to use the methods advantageously in practical situations. Exercises focus on a groundwater flow system and management problem, enabling readers to apply all the methods presented in the text. The exercises can be completed using the material provided in the book, or as hands-on computer exercises using instructions and files available on the text's accompanying Web site. Throughout the book, the authors stress the need for valid statistical concepts and easily understood presentation methods required to achieve well-tested, transparent models. Most of the examples and all of the exercises focus on simulating groundwater systems; other examples come from surface-water hydrology and geophysics. The methods and guidelines in the text are broadly applicable and can be used by students, researchers, and engineers to simulate many kinds systems.
Macroeconometrics
Author: Kevin D. Hoover
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Published: 2012-12-06
Total Pages: 575
ISBN-13: 940110669X
DOWNLOAD EBOOKEach chapter of Macroeconometrics is written by respected econometricians in order to provide useful information and perspectives for those who wish to apply econometrics in macroeconomics. The chapters are all written with clear methodological perspectives, making the virtues and limitations of particular econometric approaches accessible to a general readership familiar with applied macroeconomics. The real tensions in macroeconometrics are revealed by the critical comments from different econometricians, having an alternative perspective, which follow each chapter.
