Statistical Evidence

Statistical Evidence

Author: Richard Royall

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2017-11-22

Total Pages: 191

ISBN-13: 1351414569

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Interpreting statistical data as evidence, Statistical Evidence: A Likelihood Paradigm focuses on the law of likelihood, fundamental to solving many of the problems associated with interpreting data in this way. Statistics has long neglected this principle, resulting in a seriously defective methodology. This book redresses the balance, explaining why science has clung to a defective methodology despite its well-known defects. After examining the strengths and weaknesses of the work of Neyman and Pearson and the Fisher paradigm, the author proposes an alternative paradigm which provides, in the law of likelihood, the explicit concept of evidence missing from the other paradigms. At the same time, this new paradigm retains the elements of objective measurement and control of the frequency of misleading results, features which made the old paradigms so important to science. The likelihood paradigm leads to statistical methods that have a compelling rationale and an elegant simplicity, no longer forcing the reader to choose between frequentist and Bayesian statistics.


Measuring Statistical Evidence Using Relative Belief

Measuring Statistical Evidence Using Relative Belief

Author: Michael Evans

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2015-06-23

Total Pages: 252

ISBN-13: 148224280X

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This book provides an overview of recent work on developing a theory of statistical inference based on measuring statistical evidence. It attempts to establish a gold standard for how a statistical analysis should proceed. The book illustrates relative belief theory using many examples and describes the strengths and weaknesses of the theory. The author also addresses fundamental statistical issues, including the meaning of probability, the role of subjectivity, the meaning of objectivity, and the role of infinity and continuity.


Statistical Inference as Severe Testing

Statistical Inference as Severe Testing

Author: Deborah G. Mayo

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2018-09-20

Total Pages: 503

ISBN-13: 1108563309

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Mounting failures of replication in social and biological sciences give a new urgency to critically appraising proposed reforms. This book pulls back the cover on disagreements between experts charged with restoring integrity to science. It denies two pervasive views of the role of probability in inference: to assign degrees of belief, and to control error rates in a long run. If statistical consumers are unaware of assumptions behind rival evidence reforms, they can't scrutinize the consequences that affect them (in personalized medicine, psychology, etc.). The book sets sail with a simple tool: if little has been done to rule out flaws in inferring a claim, then it has not passed a severe test. Many methods advocated by data experts do not stand up to severe scrutiny and are in tension with successful strategies for blocking or accounting for cherry picking and selective reporting. Through a series of excursions and exhibits, the philosophy and history of inductive inference come alive. Philosophical tools are put to work to solve problems about science and pseudoscience, induction and falsification.


The Nature of Scientific Evidence

The Nature of Scientific Evidence

Author: Mark L. Taper

Publisher:

Published: 2004-10

Total Pages: 600

ISBN-13:

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Mark Taper, Subhash Lele and an esteemed group of contributors explore the relationships among hypotheses, models, data and interference on which scientific progress rests in an attempt to develop a new quantitative framework for evidence.


Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists

Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists

Author: Colin Aitken

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2004-11-19

Total Pages: 540

ISBN-13: 047001122X

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The first edition of Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists established itself as a highly regarded authority on this area. Fully revised and updated, the second edition provides significant new material on areas of current interest including: Glass Interpretation Fibres Interpretation Bayes’ Nets The title presents comprehensive coverage of the statistical evaluation of forensic evidence. It is written with the assumption of a modest mathematical background and is illustrated throughout with up-to-date examples from a forensic science background. The clarity of exposition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, lawyers and other professionals in related fields interested in the quantitative assessment and evaluation of evidence. 'There can be no doubt that the appreciation of some evidence in a court of law has been greatly enhanced by the sound use of statistical ideas and one can be confident that the next decade will see further developments, during which time this book will admirably serve those who have cause to use statistics in forensic science.' D.V. Lindley


Statistical Evidence in Medical Trials

Statistical Evidence in Medical Trials

Author: Stephen D. Simon

Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA

Published: 2006

Total Pages: 197

ISBN-13: 9780198567615

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Aimed at students and researchers in statistics and in the medical and health care sector as well as those who use and assess medical data, this work addresses common pitfalls in experimental design, focusing on the errors and misleading data that stem from flawed experiments and analytical methods in medical research.


The Evolving Role of Statistical Assessments as Evidence in the Courts

The Evolving Role of Statistical Assessments as Evidence in the Courts

Author: Stephen E. Fienberg

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 359

ISBN-13: 1461236045

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With increasing frequency, the proof of facts in legal proceedings en tails the use of quantitative methods. Judges, lawyers, statisticians, social scientists, and many others involved in judicial processes must address is sues such as the evaluation and interpretation of quantitative evidence, the ethical and professional obligations of expert witnesses, and the roles of court-appointed witnesses. The Panel on Statistical Assessments as Evi dence in the Courts was convened to help clarify these issues and provide some guidance in addressing the difficulties encountered in the use of quan titative assessments in legal proceedings. This report is the culmination of more than three years of research and deliberation. In it, we address a variety of issues that arise in federal and state court proceedings when statistical assessments such as quantitative descriptions, causal inferences, and predictions of events based on earlier occurrences are presented as evidence. We appraise the forms in which such assessments are presented, aspects of their admission into evidence, and the response to and evaluation of them by judges and juries.


Clinical Versus Statistical Prediction

Clinical Versus Statistical Prediction

Author: Paul Meehl

Publisher: Echo Point Books & Media

Published: 2015-09-10

Total Pages: 164

ISBN-13: 9781626542303

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"Clinical versus Statistical Prediction" is Paul Meehl's famous examination of benefits and disutilities related to the different ways of combining information to make predictions. It is a clarifying analysis as relevant today as when it first appeared. A major methodological problem for clinical psychology concerns the relation between clinical and actuarial methods of arriving at diagnoses and predicting behavior. Without prejudging the question as to whether these methods are fundamentally different, we can at least set forth the obvious distinctions between them in practical applications. The problem is to predict how a person is going to behave: What is the most accurate way to go about this task? "Clinical versus Statistical Prediction" offers a penetrating and thorough look at the pros and cons of human judgment versus actuarial integration of information as applied to the prediction problem. Widely considered the leading text on the subject, Paul Meehl's landmark analysis is reprinted here in its entirety, including his updated preface written forty-two years after the first publication of the book. This classic work is a must-have for students and practitioners interested in better understanding human behavior, for anyone wanting to make the most accurate decisions from all sorts of data, and for those interested in the ethics and intricacies of prediction. As Meehl puts it, " "When one is dealing with human lives and life opportunities, it is immoral to adopt a mode of decision-making which has been demonstrated repeatedly to be either inferior in success rate or, when equal, costlier to the client or the taxpayer.""


Evidence-Based Technical Analysis

Evidence-Based Technical Analysis

Author: David Aronson

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2011-07-11

Total Pages: 572

ISBN-13: 1118160584

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Evidence-Based Technical Analysis examines how you can apply the scientific method, and recently developed statistical tests, to determine the true effectiveness of technical trading signals. Throughout the book, expert David Aronson provides you with comprehensive coverage of this new methodology, which is specifically designed for evaluating the performance of rules/signals that are discovered by data mining.


Statistics Workbook for Evidence-based Health Care

Statistics Workbook for Evidence-based Health Care

Author: Jennifer Peat

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2009-01-22

Total Pages: 192

ISBN-13: 1444300504

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This concise, easy to understand and learner-friendly book invitesthe readers to actively particpate in the understanding of medicalstatistical concepts that are frequently used in health careresearch and evidence-based practice worldwide. Knowing that the best way to learn statistical concepts is touse them, the authors employ real examples and articles from healthscience literature, complete with the complexities that real lifepresents, in an approach that will help bring researchers andclinicians one step closer towards being statistical savvy andbetter able to critically read research literature and interpretthe results. A practical hands-on workbook for individual or groupexercises Teaches how to understand statistical methods when readingjournals, and how to use them in clinical research Emphasizes the use of statistics in evidence-basedresearch Relevant for anyone needing to use statistics, this workbook isan ideal resource for all health care professionals and students,especially those learning and practising evidence-basedmedicine.