Global Trends 2040
Global Trends 2040

Author: National Intelligence Council

Publisher: Cosimo Reports

Published: 2021-03

Total Pages: 158

ISBN-13: 9781646794973

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"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Disinflation in Transition Economies
Disinflation in Transition Economies

Author: Marek D?browski

Publisher: Central European University Press

Published: 2003-01-01

Total Pages: 424

ISBN-13: 9789639241299

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The authors analyze the dynamics of in Central and Eastern Europe. The volume covers all the key factors of disinflation in transition economies: changes in money supply and money demand; exchange rate policy; currency crisis; fiscal policy; legal status of central banks; monetary policy strategy; changes in relative prices and changes in nominal and real wages.

Effects of Long-Run Demographic Changes in a Multi-Country Model
Effects of Long-Run Demographic Changes in a Multi-Country Model

Author: Mr.Paul R. Masson

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1991-12-01

Total Pages: 34

ISBN-13: 1451854536

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The macroeconomic effects of population aging are explored using data for the G-7 countries and Australia. The link between changes in birth and mortality rates on the one hand, and dependency ratios on the other, is first discussed, then empirical evidence on the effects of dependency ratios on net foreign asset positions and on consumption is presented. Simulations of changes in dependency ratios are then reported, using demographic projections to the year 2025. Finally, the plausibility of the implied changes in net foreign asset positions is discussed.

Financial Structure and Stability
Financial Structure and Stability

Author: Alexander Karmann

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2000-10-26

Total Pages: 264

ISBN-13: 9783790813326

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The basic question of this book is what we can learn from empirical as well as theoretical analysis of financial systems, differing cross-sectional and changing structually over time, with respect to the issue of stability of financial systems. Part I of the book deals with stability issues in a globalizing financial world and addresses topics of convergence, domestic policy, financial bubbles, crises and international coordination. Part II is on banking systems. Country specific adoption and restructuring of (universal but also separation) banking systems are key problems for the industrialized economies, while catching-up is of major concern for the economies in transition. Feeble regional economies and subsidized banking is at the heart of the vivid dispute on public sector banking being taken up in Part III. The last Part is devoted to resource-oriented approaches in quantifiying financial development and risk of sovereign default.

How Does Political Instability Affect Economic Growth?
How Does Political Instability Affect Economic Growth?

Author: Mr.Ari Aisen

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2011-01-01

Total Pages: 30

ISBN-13: 1455211907

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The purpose of this paper is to empirically determine the effects of political instability on economic growth. Using the system-GMM estimator for linear dynamic panel data models on a sample covering up to 169 countries, and 5-year periods from 1960 to 2004, we find that higher degrees of political instability are associated with lower growth rates of GDP per capita. Regarding the channels of transmission, we find that political instability adversely affects growth by lowering the rates of productivity growth and, to a smaller degree, physical and human capital accumulation. Finally, economic freedom and ethnic homogeneity are beneficial to growth, while democracy may have a small negative effect.

Diplomatic Discourse
Diplomatic Discourse

Author: Justin Schuster

Publisher: Lulu.com

Published: 2015

Total Pages: 670

ISBN-13: 1329056272

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Throughout the summer of 2013, The Politic-Yale University's Undergraduate Political Journal-created Diplomatic Discourse, a collection of over 100 interviews with United States Ambassadors, examining careers in the Foreign Service and contemporary issues facing American policy overseas. More than 50 Yale students conducted interviews over the telephone, via Skype and email, and in person at embassies worldwide. From France to Fiji, Mongolia to Mexico, Haiti to the Holy See, these are the stories of the men and women on the frontlines of American foreign policy. Since 1947, The Politic has provided an outlet for the politically inclined on Yale's campus with past Editors including Fareed Zakaria, Gideon Rose and Robert Kagan. The Politic features long-form, investigative articles focusing on topics of domestic and international significance and interviews with the world's foremost public servants, policy makers and intellectuals, including President Obama, President Ford, Secretary Kerry, and many more.

East European Transition and EU Enlargement
East European Transition and EU Enlargement

Author: Wojciech W. Charemza

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 385

ISBN-13: 3642574971

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In March 1998 the European Union formally launched the accession process that will lead to a significant enlargement of the Union. So far ten countries from Central Europe: Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, the Slovak Republic and Slovenia have submitted their applications for EU membership. This unique process immediately attracted attention of economists and policy makers. Nevertheless, it can be noticed that among numerous results already published, there is a distinctive shortage of books and papers in which quantitative research methods are applied. This is to a large extent justified by the fact that the transition and accession processes are new to the economic sciences, their methodology is not wellresearched, statistical data for the Central and East European countries are scarce and not always reliable and, generally, quantitative approach seems to be a risky and uncertain business. All these all problems can also be seen as a challenge rather than an obstacle. With this on mind, we have decided to clarify the status quo by organising a research seminar which focused on the methodology and quantitative analysis of the Central and East European transition and pre-accession processes. The seminar, East European Transition and EU Enlargement: a Quantitative Approach organised by Macroeconomic and Financial Data Centre (University of Gdansk and University ofLeicester) took place in Gdansk in June 2001. Our edited volume contains papers developed from this seminar.