Is China's Export-Oriented Growth Sustainable?
Is China's Export-Oriented Growth Sustainable?

Author: Kai Guo

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2009-08

Total Pages: 32

ISBN-13:

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This paper assesses the sustainability of China's export-oriented growth over the medium to longer term. It shows that maintaining the current export-oriented growth would require significant gains in market share through lower prices in a range of industries. This, in turn, could be achieved through a combination of increases in productivity, lower profits, and higher implicit or explicit subsidies to industry. However, the evidence suggest that it will prove difficult to accommodate such price reductions within existing profit margins or through productivity gains. Moving up the value-added chain, shifting the composition of exports, diversifying the export base, and increasing domestic value added of exports could give room to further export expansion. However, experiences from Asian economies that had similar export-oriented growth suggest there are limits to the global market share a country can occupy. Rebalancing growth toward private consumption would provide a large impetus to output growth and reduce the need for gaining further market share.

Asian Transformations
Asian Transformations

Author: Deepak Nayyar

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Published: 2019

Total Pages: 602

ISBN-13: 019884493X

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Gunnar Myrdal published his magnum opus, Asian Drama: An Inquiry into the Poverty of Nations, in 1968. He was deeply pessimistic about development prospects in Asia. The fifty years since then have witnessed a remarkable social and economic transformation in Asia - even if it has been uneven across countries and unequal between people - that would have been difficult to imagine, let alone predict at the time. Asian Transformations: An Inquiry into the Development of Nations analyses the fascinating story of economic development in Asia spanning half a century. Asian Transformations sets the stage by discussing the contribution of Gunnar Myrdal to the debate on development then and now and providing a long-term historical perspective on Asia in the world. It then uses cross-country thematic studies on governments, economic openness, agricultural transformation, industrialization, macroeconomics, poverty and inequality, education and health, employment and unemployment, institutions, and nationalisms to analyse processes of change while recognizing the diversity in paths and outcomes. Specific country studies on China, India, Indonesia and Vietnam, and sub-region studies on East Asia, Southeast Asia, and South Asia, further highlight turning points in economic performance and demonstrate factors underlying success or failure. Including in-depth studies by eminent economists and social scientists, Asian Transformations comprehensively examines the phenomenal changes that are transforming economies in Asia and shifting the balance of economic power in the world and reflects on the future prospects for this continent over the next twenty-five years. It is a cohesive and multi-disciplinary study of a rapidly changing economic landscape, and makes an important contribution to understanding the complexities and processes of development from different perspectives.

Infrastructure?s Role in Lowering Asia?s Trade Costs
Infrastructure?s Role in Lowering Asia?s Trade Costs

Author: Douglas H. Brooks

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

Published: 2009-01-30

Total Pages: 256

ISBN-13: 1781953279

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Much of the analysis of infrastructure's impact on trade costs focuses on conditions in developed countries. This book makes an invaluable contribution to our understanding by examining the situation in developing Asia, the world's most populous and fastest growing region. This study analyzes and draws policy implications from infrastructure's central role in lowering Asia's trade costs. Infrastructure is shown to be a cost-effective means of lowering trade costs and thereby promoting regional growth and integration. This book combines thematic and country studies, while breaking new ground in.

China's Changing Trade and the Implications for the CLMV
China's Changing Trade and the Implications for the CLMV

Author: Mr.Koshy Mathai

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-09-01

Total Pages: 84

ISBN-13: 1475531710

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China’s trade patterns are evolving. While it started in light manufacturing and the assembly of more sophisticated products as part of global supply chains, China is now moving up the value chain, “onshoring” the production of higher-value-added upstream products and moving into more sophisticated downstream products as well. At the same time, with its wages rising, it has started to exit some lower-end, more labor-intensive sectors. These changes are taking place in the broader context of China’s rebalancing—away from exports and toward domestic demand, and within the latter, away from investment and toward consumption—and as a consequence, demand for some commodity imports is slowing, while consumption imports are slowly rising. The evolution of Chinese trade, investment, and consumption patterns offers opportunities and challenges to low-wage, low-income countries, including China’s neighbors in the Mekong region. Cambodia, Lao P.D.R., Myanmar, and Vietnam (the CLMV) are all open economies that are highly integrated with China. Rebalancing in China may mean less of a role for commodity exports from the region, but at the same time, the CLMV’s low labor costs suggest that manufacturing assembly for export could take off as China becomes less competitive, and as China itself demands more consumption items. Labor costs, however, are only part of the story. The CLMV will need to strengthen their infrastructure, education, governance, and trade regimes, and also run sound macro policies in order to capitalize fully on the opportunities presented by China’s transformation. With such policy efforts, the CLMV could see their trade and integration with global supply chains grow dramatically in the coming years.

Asian Development Outlook 2020
Asian Development Outlook 2020

Author: Asian Development Bank

Publisher: Asian Development Bank

Published: 2020-04-01

Total Pages: 737

ISBN-13: 9292621564

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After a disappointing 2019, growth prospects in developing Asia have worsened under the impact of the current health crisis. Signs of incipient recovery near the turn of this year were quickly overthrown as COVID-19 broke out in January 2020 in the region’s largest economy and subsequently expanded into a global pandemic. Disruption to regional and global supply chains, trade, and tourism, and the continued spread of the outbreak, leave the region reeling under massive economic shocks and financial turmoil. Across Asia, the authorities are responding with policies to contain the outbreak, facilitate medical interventions, and support vulnerable businesses and households. Assuming that the outbreak is contained this year, growth is expected to recover in 2021. Especially to face down fundamental threats such as the current medical emergency, innovation is critical to growth and development. As some economies in developing Asia challenge the innovation frontier, many others lag. More and better innovation is needed in the region to sustain growth that is more inclusive and environmentally sustainable. Five key drivers of innovation are sound education, productive entrepreneurship, high-quality institutions, efficient financial systems, and dynamic cities that excite knowledge exchange. The journey to creating an innovative society takes long-term commitment and hard work.

Fulfilling the Export Potential of Small and Medium Firms
Fulfilling the Export Potential of Small and Medium Firms

Author: Brian Levy

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 293

ISBN-13: 1461551692

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Fulfilling the Export Potential of Small and Medium Firms addresses the question, `How can economic policy contribute to a strong export performance by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in developing countries?' In today's increasingly integrated world economy, such a performance can make a significant difference to the growth, employment creation and income distribution of many developing countries. The study uses information from specifically designed surveys of SME exporters in Japan, Indonesia, Korea and Colombia, together with a range of evidence from other sources, to ascertain what types of support within the areas of technology, marketing and finance are most useful to SME exporters and how such support can best be provided to them. The quality of the support systems is found to vary widely among the four countries. Finally, a number of policy conclusions are put forward.

Emerging States and Economies
Emerging States and Economies

Author: Takashi Shiraishi

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2018-11-19

Total Pages: 183

ISBN-13: 9811326347

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This open access book asks why and how some of the developing countries have “emerged” under a set of similar global conditions, what led individual countries to choose the particular paths that led to their “emergence,” and what challenges confront them. If we are to understand the nature of major risks and uncertainties in the world, we must look squarely at the political and economic dynamics of emerging states, such as China, India, Brazil, Russia, and ASEAN countries. Their rapid economic development has changed the distribution of wealth and power in the world. Yet many of them have middle income status. To global governance issues, they tend to adopt approaches that differ from those of advanced industrialized democracies. At home, rapid economic growth and social changes put pressure on their institutions to change. This volume traces the historical trajectories of two major emerging states, China and India, and two city states, Hong Kong and Singapore. It also analyzes cross-country data to find the general patterns of economic development and sociopolitical change in relation to globalization and to the middle income trap.

Exports to Jobs
Exports to Jobs

Author: Erhan Artuc

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2019-02-25

Total Pages: 215

ISBN-13: 1464812497

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South Asia has grown rapidly with significant reductions in poverty, but it has not been able to match the fast-growing working age population, leading to lingering concerns about jobless growth and poor job quality. Could export growth in South Asia result in better labor market outcomes? The answer is yes, according to our study, which rigorously estimates—using a new methodology—the potential impact from higher South Asian exports per worker on wages and employment over a 10-year period. Our study shows the positive side of trade. It finds that increasing exports per worker would result in higher wages—mainly for better-off groups, like more educated workers, males, and more-experienced workers—although less-skilled workers would see the largest reduction in informality. How can the benefits be spread more widely? Our study suggests that scaling up exports in labor-intensive industries could significantly lower informality for groups like rural and less-educated workers in the region. Also, increasing skills, and participation of women and young workers in the labor force could make an even bigger dent in informal employment. The region could achieve these gains by: (i) boosting and connecting exports to people (e.g., removing trade barriers and investment in infrastructure); (ii) eliminating distortions in production (e.g., by more efficient allocation of inputs); and (iii) protecting workers (e.g., by investing in education and skills).