Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts
Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts

Author: Stéphane Vannitsem

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 2018-05-17

Total Pages: 364

ISBN-13: 012812248X

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. - Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place - Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts - Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner

Application of Synoptic Climatology and Short-range Numerical Prediction to Five-day Forecasting
Application of Synoptic Climatology and Short-range Numerical Prediction to Five-day Forecasting

Author: William H. Klein

Publisher:

Published: 1965

Total Pages: 130

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Five-day mean and daily meteorological data observed since 1949 are analyzed empirically in order to derive useful climatological and forecasting relationships between surface weather elements and the circulation pattern. The synoptic climatology of 5-day precipitation, surface temperature, 700-1000-mb. thickness, and sea level pressure is investigated by constructing fields of simple linear correlation between these elements and the simultaneous anomaly of 700-mb. height over North American and adjacent oceans. The relation of precipitation and temperature to the field of sea level pressure is studied in a similar fashion. On the basis of the analogy are drawn concerning the association between each weather element and other meteorological factors. Schematic models are then constructed showing preferred portions of the circulation pattern at 700-mb. and sea level for opposite extremes of weather in different parts of the United States.

Statistical Methods for Forecasting
Statistical Methods for Forecasting

Author: Bovas Abraham

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2009-09-25

Total Pages: 474

ISBN-13: 0470317299

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists. "This book, it must be said, lives up to the words on its advertising cover: 'Bridging the gap between introductory, descriptive approaches and highly advanced theoretical treatises, it provides a practical, intermediate level discussion of a variety of forecasting tools, and explains how they relate to one another, both in theory and practice.' It does just that!" -Journal of the Royal Statistical Society "A well-written work that deals with statistical methods and models that can be used to produce short-term forecasts, this book has wide-ranging applications. It could be used in the context of a study of regression, forecasting, and time series analysis by PhD students; or to support a concentration in quantitative methods for MBA students; or as a work in applied statistics for advanced undergraduates." -Choice Statistical Methods for Forecasting is a comprehensive, readable treatment of statistical methods and models used to produce short-term forecasts. The interconnections between the forecasting models and methods are thoroughly explained, and the gap between theory and practice is successfully bridged. Special topics are discussed, such as transfer function modeling; Kalman filtering; state space models; Bayesian forecasting; and methods for forecast evaluation, comparison, and control. The book provides time series, autocorrelation, and partial autocorrelation plots, as well as examples and exercises using real data. Statistical Methods for Forecasting serves as an outstanding textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate courses in statistics, business, engineering, and the social sciences, as well as a working reference for professionals in business, industry, and government.

Weather Analysis and Forecasting
Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Author: Christo Georgiev

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 2005-07-05

Total Pages: 198

ISBN-13: 0080455263

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Weather Analysis and Forecasting is a practical guide to using potential vorticity fields and water vapor imagery from satellites to elucidate complex weather patterns and train meteorologists to improve operational forecasting. In particular, it details the use of the close relationship between satellite imagery and the potential vorticity fields in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. It shows how to interpret water vapor patterns in terms of dynamical processes in the atmosphere and their relation to diagnostics available from weather prediction models. The book explores topics including: a dynamical view of synoptic development; the interpretation problem of satellite water vapor imagery; practical use of water vapor imagery and dynamical fields; significant water vapor imagery features associated with synoptic dynamical structures; and use of water vapor imagery for assessing NWP model behavior and improving forecasts. Applications are illustrated with color images based on real meteorological situations. The book's step-by-step pedagogy makes this an essential training manual for forecasters in meteorological services worldwide, and a valuable text for graduate students in atmospheric physics and satellite meteorology. * Shows how to analyze current satellite images for assessing weather models' behavior and improving forecasts * Provides step-by-step pedagogy for understanding and interpreting meteorological processes * Includes full-color throughout to highlight "real-world" models, patterns, and examples

Forecasting: principles and practice
Forecasting: principles and practice

Author: Rob J Hyndman

Publisher: OTexts

Published: 2018-05-08

Total Pages: 380

ISBN-13: 0987507117

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

Compendium of Meteorology
Compendium of Meteorology

Author: Thomas Malone

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2016-07-10

Total Pages: 1304

ISBN-13: 1940033705

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

The objects of the American Meteorological Society are "the development and dissemination of knowledge of meteorology in all its phases and applications, and the advancement of its professional ideals." The organization of the Society took place in affiliation with the American Association for the Advancement of Science at Saint Louis, Missouri, December 29, 1919, and its incorporation, at Washington, D. C., January 21, 1920. The work of the Society is carried on by the Bulletin, the Journal, and Meteorological Monographs, by papers and discussions at meetings of the Society, through the offices of the Secretary and the Executive Secretary, and by correspondence. All of the Americas are represented in the membership of the Society as well as many foreign countries.

A Historical Survey of Statistical Weather Prediction
A Historical Survey of Statistical Weather Prediction

Author: United States. Navy. Weather Research Facility

Publisher:

Published: 1963

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This work presents the history of the use of statistics in weather forecasting and describes the evolution of the more important statistical methods in this field: graphical techniques, periodicity, empirical orthogonal functions, and multiple discriminant analysis. A bibliography consisting of 141 references, divided by topics, and an appendix listing these references chronologically are included. (Author).

Sea Ice in the Arctic
Sea Ice in the Arctic

Author: Ola M. Johannessen

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2019-11-12

Total Pages: 579

ISBN-13: 3030213013

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This book provides in-depth information about the sea ice in the Arctic at scales from paleoenvironmental variability to more contemporary changes during the past and present centuries. The book is based on several decades of research related to sea ice in the Arctic and its variability, sea ice process studies as well as implications of the sea ice variability on human activities. The chapters provide an extensive overview of the research results related to sea ice in the Arctic at paleo-scales to more resent scales of variations as well as projections for changes during the 21st century. The authors have pioneered the satellite remote sensing monitoring of sea ice and used other monitoring data in order to study, monitor and model sea ice and its processes.