Secular Stagnation Theories
Secular Stagnation Theories

Author: Christina Anselmann

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2020-04-17

Total Pages: 336

ISBN-13: 3030410870

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In light of weak economic performances and rising income disparities across the developed world during the past decades, this book provides a comprehensive overview of secular stagnation theories in the history of economic thought and examines the role of income distribution in various stagnation hypotheses. By offering a historical perspective, from the classical economists to the most recent stagnation debate of the early twenty-first century, the author shows that most stagnation theories were developed in periods of high and/or rising income disparities. Eventually, it was Josef Steindl, one of the least recognized stagnationists in the history of economic thought, who put the distribution of income at the heart of his stagnation theory. While Josef Steindl focused on the nexus between the functional distribution of income and economic growth, this book includes the personal distribution of income in a Kaleckian-Steindlian model of economic growth and stagnation. In the model presented, the nexus between economic growth and the distribution of income is a priori uncertain, depending on the type of economic shock and the specific economic circumstances. The author also discusses various empirically oriented policy implications aimed at fostering both economic growth and a more equal distribution of income. This book appeals to scholars in economics and the history of economic thought interested in economic growth, secular stagnation, and income distribution.

Hysteresis and Business Cycles
Hysteresis and Business Cycles

Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2020-05-29

Total Pages: 50

ISBN-13: 1513536990

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Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

The Great Stagnation
The Great Stagnation

Author: Tyler Cowen

Publisher: Penguin

Published: 2011-01-25

Total Pages: 98

ISBN-13: 1101502258

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Tyler Cowen’s controversial New York Times bestseller—the book heard round the world that ignited a firestorm of debate and redefined the nature of America’s economic malaise. America has been through the biggest financial crisis since the great Depression, unemployment numbers are frightening, media wages have been flat since the 1970s, and it is common to expect that things will get worse before they get better. Certainly, the multidecade stagnation is not yet over. How will we get out of this mess? One political party tries to increase government spending even when we have no good plan for paying for ballooning programs like Medicare and Social Security. The other party seems to think tax cuts will raise revenue and has a record of creating bigger fiscal disasters that the first. Where does this madness come from? As Cowen argues, our economy has enjoyed low-hanging fruit since the seventeenth century: free land, immigrant labor, and powerful new technologies. But during the last forty years, the low-hanging fruit started disappearing, and we started pretending it was still there. We have failed to recognize that we are at a technological plateau. The fruit trees are barer than we want to believe. That's it. That is what has gone wrong and that is why our politics is crazy. In The Great Stagnation, Cowen reveals the underlying causes of our past prosperity and how we will generate it again. This is a passionate call for a new respect of scientific innovations that benefit not only the powerful elites, but humanity as a whole.

The Vanishing Middle Class, new epilogue
The Vanishing Middle Class, new epilogue

Author: Peter Temin

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2018-03-09

Total Pages: 288

ISBN-13: 0262535297

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Why the United States has developed an economy divided between rich and poor and how racism helped bring this about. The United States is becoming a nation of rich and poor, with few families in the middle. In this book, MIT economist Peter Temin offers an illuminating way to look at the vanishing middle class. Temin argues that American history and politics, particularly slavery and its aftermath, play an important part in the widening gap between rich and poor. Temin employs a well-known, simple model of a dual economy to examine the dynamics of the rich/poor divide in America, and outlines ways to work toward greater equality so that America will no longer have one economy for the rich and one for the poor. Many poorer Americans live in conditions resembling those of a developing country—substandard education, dilapidated housing, and few stable employment opportunities. And although almost half of black Americans are poor, most poor people are not black. Conservative white politicians still appeal to the racism of poor white voters to get support for policies that harm low-income people as a whole, casting recipients of social programs as the Other—black, Latino, not like "us." Politicians also use mass incarceration as a tool to keep black and Latino Americans from participating fully in society. Money goes to a vast entrenched prison system rather than to education. In the dual justice system, the rich pay fines and the poor go to jail.

The World Economy
The World Economy

Author: Dale W. Jorgenson

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2016-11-24

Total Pages: 597

ISBN-13: 1107143349

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The first long-term analysis of the process of structural change and productivity growth in Asia, Europe, Latin America and the USA.

The Race between Education and Technology
The Race between Education and Technology

Author: Claudia Goldin

Publisher: Harvard University Press

Published: 2009-07-01

Total Pages: 497

ISBN-13: 0674037731

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This book provides a careful historical analysis of the co-evolution of educational attainment and the wage structure in the United States through the twentieth century. The authors propose that the twentieth century was not only the American Century but also the Human Capital Century. That is, the American educational system is what made America the richest nation in the world. Its educational system had always been less elite than that of most European nations. By 1900 the U.S. had begun to educate its masses at the secondary level, not just in the primary schools that had remarkable success in the nineteenth century. The book argues that technological change, education, and inequality have been involved in a kind of race. During the first eight decades of the twentieth century, the increase of educated workers was higher than the demand for them. This had the effect of boosting income for most people and lowering inequality. However, the reverse has been true since about 1980. This educational slowdown was accompanied by rising inequality. The authors discuss the complex reasons for this, and what might be done to ameliorate it.

Credit Supply and Productivity Growth
Credit Supply and Productivity Growth

Author: Francesco Manaresi

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-05-17

Total Pages: 75

ISBN-13: 1498315917

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We study the impact of bank credit on firm productivity. We exploit a matched firm-bank database covering all the credit relationships of Italian corporations, together with a natural experiment, to measure idiosyncratic supply-side shocks to credit availability and to estimate a production model augmented with financial frictions. We find that a contraction in credit supply causes a reduction of firm TFP growth and also harms IT-adoption, innovation, exporting, and adoption of superior management practices, while a credit expansion has limited impact. Quantitatively, the credit contraction between 2007 and 2009 accounts for about a quarter of observed the decline in TFP.

International Productivity Monitor
International Productivity Monitor

Author: OECD

Publisher: OECD Publishing

Published: 2017-07-17

Total Pages: 222

ISBN-13: 9264279172

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The 32nd issue of the International Productivity Monitor is a special issue produced in collaboration with the OECD. All articles published in this issue were selected from papers presented at the First Annual Conference of the OECD Global Forum on Productivity held in Lisbon, Portugal, July ...

The Rise and Fall of American Growth
The Rise and Fall of American Growth

Author: Robert J. Gordon

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2017-08-29

Total Pages: 785

ISBN-13: 1400888956

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How America's high standard of living came to be and why future growth is under threat In the century after the Civil War, an economic revolution improved the American standard of living in ways previously unimaginable. Electric lighting, indoor plumbing, motor vehicles, air travel, and television transformed households and workplaces. But has that era of unprecedented growth come to an end? Weaving together a vivid narrative, historical anecdotes, and economic analysis, The Rise and Fall of American Growth challenges the view that economic growth will continue unabated, and demonstrates that the life-altering scale of innovations between 1870 and 1970 cannot be repeated. Gordon contends that the nation's productivity growth will be further held back by the headwinds of rising inequality, stagnating education, an aging population, and the rising debt of college students and the federal government, and that we must find new solutions. A critical voice in the most pressing debates of our time, The Rise and Fall of American Growth is at once a tribute to a century of radical change and a harbinger of tougher times to come.