Martin McGuire has written for the specialist and the concerned layman a highly original and valuable contribution to our understanding of the arms race, based upon economic theory in general and the theory of economic duopoly in particular. He calls attention to the fact that when two world powers face each other with massive allocations of resources for arms, and when each regards the other as the major, if not the sole, threat to its own security, the question of accurate information about the strength and intentions of the adversary arises for each side in many and various ways. As a result, this study is a pioneering, analytic effort to approach the value of keeping secrets from or of obtaining information about an enemy. The author is concerned with such questions as: what is the loss in being only 50 percent confident rather than certain that the adversary doesn't have more X missiles or missiles of yield W megatons or of accuracy C thousand feet? Should one insist on being 95 percent sure when bargaining for arms control? How can a side compensate for its uncertainty most efficiently? An understanding of these problems can not only increase our security; it may help as well to contain or control the entire two-sided race.
Review of the book by Martin C. McGuire. The qualitative limits of the book are demonstrated rigorously through the analytical techniques which have become common under the guise of 'conflict and resolution'. The study is primarily directed at the manner in which weapons development and buildup precede conflict. There is some attention given to the relationship of the factors which initiate hostilities and the process of weapons buildup. This is essentially economic theory, and it is doubtful that the classicists among political scientists will wish to wend their torturous way through the equations and graphs; although, if such an individual has in mind developing his understanding of the application of systems analysis to political problems, this book in its fairly narrow context is a worthy introduction to its disciplinary domain. The last two chapters, 'Secrecy and Interaction in the Arms Race' and 'Information Exchange and Arms Control', illustrate effectively the necessity for flexibility in secrecy and information processes.
Involved in many Cold War events, the author became a insider, a nuclear physicist looking right into the dragon's mouth, at the very weapons that made things so chilling and nearly calamitous. This isn't simply an historical narrative; it's also an investigative journalist's exposé of the institutional complex that nurtured a nuclear-arms race almost to our oblivion, while fostering inhuman consequences. Nurturing both sides of the Cold War were mindless military-industrial complexes. No one else has given an account of such intense and personal experience - as technical manager, observer, and activist - insider or outsider. This first-hand narrative chronicles the half-century nuclear crisis: nerve-wracking situations, one global instability to another - tracking the Cold War, its anxieties, controversies, and impact. All of us wittingly or unwittingly had a stake in the nuclear-arms race. My father was a soldier of fortune, a mercenary with a lifelong career serving in American and other armies. When World War II broke out, I was sent to military school, then college. After a bachelor's degree in journalism, obligatory active-duty followed in the Atlantic amphibs: three years as a commissioned officer, partly during the Korean War, in the Reserves for 16 years, eventually the rank of Lieutenant Commander. Attending graduate school under the GI Bill, I became a PhD physicist, entering the esoteric domains of nuclear reactors and weapons - and later arms control and treaty verification. It didn't take long working at a national laboratory to gain a conservative fear of atomic weapons. That gave me a seat at the table - literally lunch at cafeterias of nuclear laboratories, and at the most sensitive facilities of the former Soviet Union, as well as agencies and entities that functioned within the U.S. Gradually I gained access to most nuclear secrets, as well as decades of human inequities and governmental arrogance, unexpectedly becoming an expert in nuclear technology and weapons. In tracking Cold War history, skillful memoirs have been published by individuals who were decision makers, as well as assessments by professional historians. What distinguishes Cold War Brinkmanship is my first-hand role - knowledgeable insider, witness, participant - sometimes an activist and target of FBI investigation (documented under FOIA). Now, I've become an author and a knowledgeable source as the Trump presidency moves along. This personalized narrative tracks the Cold War, its anxieties, controversial issues, and impact. Whether you were a fellow citizen, part of the silent majority or vocal minority, or a conscientious bureaucrat - together we had a stake in the outcome of the frightful and expensive nuclear-arms race. Just a single conscientious mortal decision was (and still is) needed to activate the nuclear "football," to incinerate and radiate. Standing by in every weaponized nuclear nation is someone awaiting the authorization for the chain of command to carry out orders of immense consequence. To hasten World War II's end, such fateful decisions and consequential orders were carried out, destroying Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Something similar, or much worse, almost happened during the Cold War Cuban missile crisis. Our children, their children, people around the world: None ought to suffer such traumatic and dangerous times. With pockets of famine, civil injustice, wars of liberation, suicidal ideologies, natural disasters, other global instabilities - who needs a return to Cold War brinkmanship? Decisionmakers, be cautious! Maybe these recollections will demonstrate how difficult it was to contain the nuclear-arms race as it grew more alarming, more expensive, and more consequential. This book is written not by a high-level bureaucrat, but by someone who became a very-well-informed and concerned citizen, anti-war leader, and civil-rights activist.
"Nuclear weapons, since their conception, have been the subject of secrecy. In the months after the dropping of the atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the American scientific establishment, the American government, and the American public all wrestled with what was called the "problem of secrecy," wondering not only whether secrecy was appropriate and effective as a means of controlling this new technology but also whether it was compatible with the country's core values. Out of a messy context of propaganda, confusion, spy scares, and the grave counsel of competing groups of scientists, what historian Alex Wellerstein calls a "new regime of secrecy" was put into place. It was unlike any other previous or since. Nuclear secrets were given their own unique legal designation in American law ("restricted data"), one that operates differently than all other forms of national security classification and exists to this day. Drawing on massive amounts of declassified files, including records released by the government for the first time at the author's request, Restricted Data is a narrative account of nuclear secrecy and the tensions and uncertainty that built as the Cold War continued. In the US, both science and democracy are pitted against nuclear secrecy, and this makes its history uniquely compelling and timely"--
From the author of the classic The Wizards of Armageddon and Pulitzer Prize finalist comes the definitive history of American policy on nuclear war—and Presidents’ actions in nuclear crises—from Truman to Trump. Fred Kaplan, hailed by The New York Times as “a rare combination of defense intellectual and pugnacious reporter,” takes us into the White House Situation Room, the Joint Chiefs of Staff’s “Tank” in the Pentagon, and the vast chambers of Strategic Command to bring us the untold stories—based on exclusive interviews and previously classified documents—of how America’s presidents and generals have thought about, threatened, broached, and just barely avoided nuclear war from the dawn of the atomic age until today. Kaplan’s historical research and deep reporting will stand as the permanent record of politics. Discussing theories that have dominated nightmare scenarios from Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Kaplan presents the unthinkable in terms of mass destruction and demonstrates how the nuclear war reality will not go away, regardless of the dire consequences.
