Safeguarding Banks and Containing Property Booms
Safeguarding Banks and Containing Property Booms

Author: Mr.Ashvin Ahuja

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2011-12-01

Total Pages: 27

ISBN-13: 1463927185

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We assess the effectiveness of macroprudential policies against a number of different indicators of property sector activity and financial stability. At the cross-country level the use of LTV caps decelerates property price growth. Both LTV and DTI caps slow property lending growth. LTV caps also affect a broader range of financial stability indicators in economies with pegged exchange rates and currency boards. For Hong Kong SAR, LTV policy tends to be forward looking, with caps lowered to counter downward movements in mortgage rates, and higher growth in mortgage loan and volumes of transactions. The reduction in caps appears to respond to small and medium size flat price appreciation, and contributes to a decline in high-end volume growth after a year and total transactions volume growth after 11⁄2?2 years. Price growth responds favorably after 2 years. The evidence suggests LTV tightening could affect property activity through the expectations channel rather than through the credit channel.

How Effective is Macroprudential Policy? Evidence from Lending Restriction Measures in EU Countries
How Effective is Macroprudential Policy? Evidence from Lending Restriction Measures in EU Countries

Author: Mr.Tigran Poghosyan

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-03-01

Total Pages: 42

ISBN-13: 1498301908

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This paper assesses the effectiveness of lending restriction measures, such as loan-to-value and debt-service-to-income ratios, in affecting developments in house prices and credit. We use data on 99 lending standard restrictions implemented in 28 EU countries over 1990–2018. The results suggest that lending restriction measures are generally effective in curbing house prices and credit. However, the impact is delayed and reaches its peak only after three years. In addition, the impact is asymmetric, with tightening measures having weaker association with target variables compared to loosening measures. The association is stronger in countries outside of euro area and for legally-binding measures and measures involving sanctions. The results have practical implications for macroprudential authorities.

With Great Power Comes Great Responsibility
With Great Power Comes Great Responsibility

Author: Mr.Ivo Krznar

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-05-12

Total Pages: 38

ISBN-13: 1484384237

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The goal of this paper is to assess the effectiveness of the policy measures taken by Canadian authorities to address the housing boom. We find that the the last three rounds of macroprudential policies implemented since 2010 were associated with lower mortgage credit growth and house price growth. The international experience suggests that—in addition to tighter loan-to-value limits and shorter amortization periods—lower caps on the debt-to-income ratio and higher risk weights could be effective if the housing boom were to reignite. Over the medium term, the authorities could consider structural measures to further improve the soundness of housing finance.

Macroprudential Policies in Southeastern Europe
Macroprudential Policies in Southeastern Europe

Author: Dilyana Dimova

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-02-15

Total Pages: 81

ISBN-13: 1498342876

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This paper presents a detailed account of the rich set of macroprudential measures taken in four Southeastern European countries—Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, and Serbia—during their synchronized boom and bust cycles in 2003–12, and assesses their effectiveness. We find that only strong measures helped contain domestic credit growth, the share of foreigncurrency- denominated loans provided by the domestic banking sector, or the domestic banking sector’s reliance on foreign borrowing during the boom years. We also find that circumvention via direct external borrowing often fully offset the effectiveness of these strict measures, and thatmeasures taken during the bust had no discernible impact. We conclude that (i) proper calibration of macroprudential measures is of the essence; (ii) only strong, broad-based macroprudential measures can contain credit booms; (iii) econometric studies of macroprudential policy effectiveness should focus on measures rather than on instruments (i.e. classes of measures) and in so doing allow for possible non-linear and state-contingent effects.

Ireland
Ireland

Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-09-29

Total Pages: 30

ISBN-13: 1475542240

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This Technical Note discusses the findings and recommendations made in the Financial Sector Assessment Program for Ireland in the area of the macroprudential policy framework. The current institutional arrangement in Ireland is appropriate for effective macroprudential policy and in line with IMF guidance. The Central Bank of Ireland’s analysis of systemic vulnerabilities is sophisticated and timely. The central bank has been introducing a range of macroprudential instruments to contain a buildup of systemic risk in the financial system. Ireland’s boom-bust experience amply demonstrates the need for forward-looking action to head off incipient financial problems.

Sweden
Sweden

Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-09-22

Total Pages: 54

ISBN-13: 1498377270

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This Selected Issues Paper on Sweden focuses on macroprudential policies in Sweden. Sweden’s banking system meets most standard measures of financial soundness. However, with its large and wholesale-dependent banking sector, high and increasing household debt, and resurgent house price growth, additional measures are needed to contain mounting financial stability risks. On the supply side, this means continuing to strengthen capital and liquidity requirements. However, theoretical and empirical evidence points to a need to also limit credit demand, including through effective steps to increase the rate of mortgage amortization. Empirical evidence suggests that demand-side measures are effective in curbing household borrowing. There is less evidence on the simultaneous use of these tools—a scenario particularly relevant for Sweden. The model also suggests that higher policy rates will impact both mortgage supply and demand. The main findings are qualitatively unchanged across different sample periods and alternative sign restrictions—for example, about the contemporaneous correlation between the monetary policy shock and output and inflation.

LTV and DTI Limits—Going Granular
LTV and DTI Limits—Going Granular

Author: Luis I. Jacome H.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-07-15

Total Pages: 41

ISBN-13: 1513518933

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There is increasing interest in loan-to-value (LTV) and debt-service-to-income (DTI) limits as many countries face a new round of rising house prices. Yet, very little is known on how these regulatory instruments work in practice. This paper contributes to fill this gap by looking closely at their use and effectiveness in six economies—Brazil, Hong Kong SAR, Korea, Malaysia, Poland, and Romania. Insights include: rapid growth in high-LTV loans with long maturities or in the number of borrowers with multiple mortgages can be signs of build up in systemic risk; monitoring nonperforming loans by loan characteristics can help in calibrating changes in the LTV and DTI limits; as leakages are almost inevitable, countries strive to address them at an early stage; and, in most cases, LTVs and DTIs were effective in reducing loan-growth and improving debt-servicing performances of borrowers, but not always in curbing house price growth.

The Development Dimension Strengthening Macroprudential Policies in Emerging Asia Adapting to Green Goals and Fintech
The Development Dimension Strengthening Macroprudential Policies in Emerging Asia Adapting to Green Goals and Fintech

Author: OECD

Publisher: OECD Publishing

Published: 2021-06-29

Total Pages: 152

ISBN-13: 9264430105

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Many Emerging Asian countries have been refining macroprudential policies, particularly since the Global Financial Crisis. This publication provides a detailed overview of the current macroprudential policy situation in Emerging Asian countries and explores how the macroprudential policy toolkit has evolved.

New Zealand
New Zealand

Author: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-05-08

Total Pages: 73

ISBN-13: 1475599099

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This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights New Zealand’s economic expansion, which since early 2011 gained further broad-based momentum in 2016. GDP growth accelerated to 4 percent, and the output gap has roughly closed. Reconstruction spending after the 2011 Canterbury earthquake was an important catalyst, but the expansion has also been supported by accommodative monetary policy, a net migration wave, improving services exports, and strong terms of trade. There was some weakening of momentum in the fourth quarter of 2016, owing to softer private consumption and a sharp drop in exports, but it is expected to be temporary. Growth should rebound and then moderate toward trend in the medium term, in particular as net migration normalizes.

Macroprudential Policy in the GCC Countries
Macroprudential Policy in the GCC Countries

Author: Ms.Zsofia Arvai

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-02-01

Total Pages: 47

ISBN-13: 1484346521

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As undiversified commodity exporters, GCC economies are prone to pro-cyclical systemic risk in the financial system. During periods of high hydrocarbon prices, favorable economic prospects make the financial sector keen to lend, leading to higher domestic credit growth and easier access to external financing. Fiscal policy is a very important tool for macroeconomic management, but due to the significant time lags and expenditure rigidities, it has not been a flexible enough tool to prevent credit booms and the build-up of systemic risk in the GCC. This, together with limited monetary policy independence because of the pegged exchange rate, means that macro-prudential policy has a particularly important role in limiting systemic risk in the financial system. This importance is reinforced by the underdeveloped financial markets in the region that provide limited risk management tools and shortcomings in crisis resolution frameworks. This paper will discuss the importance of macro-prudential policy in the GCC countries, look at the experience with macro-prudential policies in the boom/bust cycle in the second half of the 2000s, and use the broad frameworks being developed in the Fund and elsewhere to discuss ways existing frameworks and policy toolkits in the region can be strengthened given the characteristics of the GCC economies.