During risk-off episodes, the yen is a safe haven currency and on average appreciates against the U.S. dollar. We investigate the proximate causes of yen risk-off appreciations. We find that neither capital inflows nor expectations of the future monetary policy stance can explain the yen’s safe haven behavior. In contrast, we find evidence that changes in market participants’ risk perceptions trigger derivatives trading, which in turn lead to changes in the spot exchange rate without capital flows. Specifically, we find that risk-off episodes coincide with forward hedging and reduced net short positions or a buildup of net long positions in yen. These empirical findings suggest that offshore and complex financial transactions should be part of spillover analyses and that the effectiveness of capital flow management measures or monetary policy coordination to address excessive exchange rate volatility might be limited in certain cases.
During risk-off episodes, the yen is a safe haven currency and on average appreciates against the U.S. dollar. We investigate the proximate causes of yen risk-off appreciations. We find that neither capital inflows nor expectations of the future monetary policy stance can explain the yen’s safe haven behavior. In contrast, we find evidence that changes in market participants’ risk perceptions trigger derivatives trading, which in turn lead to changes in the spot exchange rate without capital flows. Specifically, we find that risk-off episodes coincide with forward hedging and reduced net short positions or a buildup of net long positions in yen. These empirical findings suggest that offshore and complex financial transactions should be part of spillover analyses and that the effectiveness of capital flow management measures or monetary policy coordination to address excessive exchange rate volatility might be limited in certain cases.
Why the dollar is—and will remain—the dominant global currency The U.S. dollar's dominance seems under threat. The near collapse of the U.S. financial system in 2008–2009, political paralysis that has blocked effective policymaking, and emerging competitors such as the Chinese renminbi have heightened speculation about the dollar’s looming displacement as the main reserve currency. Yet, as The Dollar Trap powerfully argues, the financial crisis, a dysfunctional international monetary system, and U.S. policies have paradoxically strengthened the dollar’s importance. Eswar Prasad examines how the dollar came to have a central role in the world economy and demonstrates that it will remain the cornerstone of global finance for the foreseeable future. Marshaling a range of arguments and data, and drawing on the latest research, Prasad shows why it will be difficult to dislodge the dollar-centric system. With vast amounts of foreign financial capital locked up in dollar assets, including U.S. government securities, other countries now have a strong incentive to prevent a dollar crash. Prasad takes the reader through key contemporary issues in international finance—including the growing economic influence of emerging markets, the currency wars, the complexities of the China-U.S. relationship, and the role of institutions like the International Monetary Fund—and offers new ideas for fixing the flawed monetary system. Readers are also given a rare look into some of the intrigue and backdoor scheming in the corridors of international finance. The Dollar Trap offers a panoramic analysis of the fragile state of global finance and makes a compelling case that, despite all its flaws, the dollar will remain the ultimate safe-haven currency.
China's currency, the renminbi, has taken the world by storm. This book documents the renminbi's impressive rise to global prominence in a short period but also shows how much further it has to go before becoming a major international currency. The hype about its inevitable ascendance to global dominance is overblown.
Can you afford not to buy gold? As many investors know, gold is a “safe-haven” asset that can actually increase in value during stock market slides and times of recession. But what else do you really know about this commodity? Are you taking full advantage of it? Do you know how to work it into your overall investment strategy? This detailed tutorial provides you with a comprehensive understanding of gold, from mine to market. Jonathan Spall, a 25-year veteran of the metals market, explains everything you'll need to know for making gold a profitable part of your investment strategy. Investing in Gold gives you an inside look at how the precious metal is mined, refined, traded, and priced, along with valuable insight into gold's unique position in the marketplace. Spall explores such topics as: Simple and complex gold trading processes The pivotal role central banks play in the gold market Gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) How spot gold is traded Why gold mining companies have traditionally hedged and why they no longer do so Strategies for investing in the retail market Spall provides an extensive glossary of terms you'll need to know, and he debunks various myths regarding this market, including the Fed's supposed scheme to keep gold prices artificially low during the 1990s. The effects of global economic growth, the weakened dollar, the credit crunch, and the recent creation of enormous funds each affect the gold market; put them together and they add up to potential profits gold investors have never before dreamed of. Gold is a surprisingly small market. When you learn how to navigate it, the potential for excellent rewards becomes evident.
From the brightest minds in the field—a revealing look at how countries use their currencies to achieve prosperity . . . and the coming repercussions Bloomberg Television's Sara Eisen sheds light on the complex global financial system through this illuminating collection of essays. She hand selected the crème de la crème of authors from the world's most prestigious academic institutions and esteemed professional organizations to share—for the first time in print—their observations and deductions on the topics that matter most to you and your future wealth, including: • THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CURRENCIES AND FINANCIAL CRISES • THE FLAWS WITHIN THE INTERNATIONAL EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEM AND THEIR CONSEQUENCES • HOW EMERGING MARKETS FIT INTO THE CURRENT AND FUTURE EXCHANGE RATE FRAMEWORK • THE IMPACT EXCHANGE RATES HAVE ON FREE TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH • WHAT DEFINES A "SAFE HAVEN" CURRENCY AND ITS ROLE • POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS TO THE CURRENT ECONOMIC PROBLEMS "Today's fiat currency system is based upon trust among market participants, politicians, and central bankers--and that trust is assembled around the reserve currency that enjoys an exorbitant privilege. The reserve status is in doubt in a post financial crisis era but alternatives are lacking. . . . This book is a great guide on how the global currency system is morphing into apotential new standard, but not without the necessary volatility."—Ben Emons, Senior Vice President, Portfolio Manager, PIMCO
For about three decades until the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Covered Interest Parity (CIP) appeared to hold quite closely—even as a broad macroeconomic relationship applying to daily or weekly data. Not only have CIP deviations significantly increased since the GFC, but potential macrofinancial drivers of the variation in CIP deviations have also become significant. The variation in CIP deviations seems to be associated with multiple factors, not only regulatory changes. Most of these do not display a uniform importance across currency pairs and time, and some are associated with possible temporary considerations (such as asynchronous monetary policy cycles).
The yen is an important barometer for the Japanese economy. Depreciations are typically associated with favorable economic developments such as increased corporate profits, rising equity prices, and upward pressure on domestic consumer prices. On the other hand, large and sharp appreciations run the risk of lowering actual and expected inflation, squeezing corporate profits, generating a negative wealth effect through depressed equity prices, and reducing confidence in the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reflate the domestic economy and achieve the inflation target. This paper takes a closer look at underlying drivers of rapid yen appreciations, highlighting the key role of carry-trade and the zero lower bound as important amplifiers.
FXstreet.Com’s 2013 Best Book Award! The Sensible Guide to Forex: Safer, Smarter Ways to Survive and Prosper from the Start is written for the risk averse, mainstream retail investor or trader seeking a more effective way to tap forex markets to improve returns and hedge currency risk. As the most widely held currencies are being devalued, they're taking your portfolio down with them—unless you're prepared. For traders, the book focuses on reducing the high risk, complexity, and time demands normally associated with forex trading. For long-term investors, it concentrates on how to hedge currency risk by diversifying portfolios into the strongest currencies for lower risk and higher capital gains and income. The usual forex materials don't provide practical answers for most retail traders or longer term investors. Virtually all forex trading materials focus on time-consuming, high-leverage, high-risk methods at which most traders fail. Materials about long-term investing in foreign assets rarely take into account the prospects of the related currency. A falling currency can turn an otherwise good investment into a bad one. Throughout the book, the emphasis is on planning and executing only low risk, high potential yield trades or investments and avoiding serious losses at all costs. Packed with richly illustrated examples every step of the way and including additional appendices and references to online resources, the book is the ultimate guide to forex for retail traders and investors seeking to tap forex markets for better currency diversification and income. Provides traders with safer, smarter, less complex and time-consuming ways to trade forex with higher odds of success. These include the use of such increasingly popular new instruments like forex binary options and social trading accounts that mimic expert traders. Shows investors how to identify the currencies most likely to hold or increase their value, and provides a wealth of ideas about how to apply that knowledge to a long-term, low-maintenance portfolio for both income and capital appreciation. Helps anyone seeking an asset class with low correlation to other markets by explaining how the very nature of forex markets means that regardless of market conditions there's always a playable trend somewhere, regardless of what other asset markets are doing, and how to find and exploit it for a short-term trade or a long-term investment in a currency pair, stock, bond, or other asset The Sensible Guide to Forex is only book that teaches mainstream risk averse investors and traders how to build a portfolio that’s diversified by currency exposure as well as by asset class and sector, via a variety of safer, simpler methods to suit different needs, risk tolerances, and levels of expertise. Written by Cliff Wachtel, a 30+ year financial market writer, advisor, and analyst, The Sensible Guide to Forex offers practical solutions to the above dilemmas faced by every serious, prudent investor. A must own for any informed investor-but don’t take out word for it - see advanced reviews at: http://thesensibleguidetoforex.com/review/
FXstreet.Com’s 2013 Best Book Award! The Sensible Guide to Forex: Safer, Smarter Ways to Survive and Prosper from the Start is written for the risk averse, mainstream retail investor or trader seeking a more effective way to tap forex markets to improve returns and hedge currency risk. As the most widely held currencies are being devalued, they're taking your portfolio down with them—unless you're prepared. For traders, the book focuses on reducing the high risk, complexity, and time demands normally associated with forex trading. For long-term investors, it concentrates on how to hedge currency risk by diversifying portfolios into the strongest currencies for lower risk and higher capital gains and income. The usual forex materials don't provide practical answers for most retail traders or longer term investors. Virtually all forex trading materials focus on time-consuming, high-leverage, high-risk methods at which most traders fail. Materials about long-term investing in foreign assets rarely take into account the prospects of the related currency. A falling currency can turn an otherwise good investment into a bad one. Throughout the book, the emphasis is on planning and executing only low risk, high potential yield trades or investments and avoiding serious losses at all costs. Packed with richly illustrated examples every step of the way and including additional appendices and references to online resources, the book is the ultimate guide to forex for retail traders and investors seeking to tap forex markets for better currency diversification and income. Provides traders with safer, smarter, less complex and time-consuming ways to trade forex with higher odds of success. These include the use of such increasingly popular new instruments like forex binary options and social trading accounts that mimic expert traders. Shows investors how to identify the currencies most likely to hold or increase their value, and provides a wealth of ideas about how to apply that knowledge to a long-term, low-maintenance portfolio for both income and capital appreciation. Helps anyone seeking an asset class with low correlation to other markets by explaining how the very nature of forex markets means that regardless of market conditions there's always a playable trend somewhere, regardless of what other asset markets are doing, and how to find and exploit it for a short-term trade or a long-term investment in a currency pair, stock, bond, or other asset The Sensible Guide to Forex is only book that teaches mainstream risk averse investors and traders how to build a portfolio that’s diversified by currency exposure as well as by asset class and sector, via a variety of safer, simpler methods to suit different needs, risk tolerances, and levels of expertise. Written by Cliff Wachtel, a 30+ year financial market writer, advisor, and analyst, The Sensible Guide to Forex offers practical solutions to the above dilemmas faced by every serious, prudent investor. A must own for any informed investor-but don’t take out word for it - see advanced reviews at: http://thesensibleguidetoforex.com/review/
