Containing the papers from the 11th International Conference on Computer Simulation in Risk Analysis and Hazard Mitigation 2018, this book will be of interest to those concerned with all aspects of risk management and hazard mitigation, associated with both natural and anthropogenic hazards. Current events help to emphasise the importance of the analysis and management of risk to planners and researchers around the world. Natural hazards such as floods, earthquakes, landslides, fires and others have always affected human societies. The more recent emergence of the importance of man-made hazards is a consequence of the rapid technological advances made in the last few centuries. The interaction of natural and anthropogenic risks adds to the complexity of the problems. The included papers, presented at the Risk Analysis Conference, cover a variety of topics related to risk analysis and hazard mitigation.
An overview of the methods used for risk analysis in a variety of industrial sectors, with a particular focus on the consideration of human aspects, this book provides a definition of all the fundamental notions associated with risks and risk management, as well as clearly placing the discipline of risk analysis within the broader context of risk management processes. The author begins by presenting a certain number of basic concepts, followed by the general principle of risk analysis. He then moves on to examine the ISO31000 standard, which provides a specification for the implementation of a risk management approach. The ability to represent the information we use is crucial, so the representation of knowledge, covering both information concerning the risk occurrence mechanism and details of the system under scrutiny, is also considered. The different analysis methods are then presented, firstly for the identification of risks, then for their analysis in terms of cause and effect, and finally for the implementation of safety measures. Concrete examples are given throughout the book and the methodology and method can be applied to various fields (industry, health, organization, technical systems). Contents Part 1. General Concepts and Principles 1. Introduction. 2. Basic Notions. 3. Principles of Risk Analysis Methods. 4. The Risk Management Process (ISO31000). Part 2. Knowledge Representation 5. Modeling Risk. 6. Measuring the Importance of a Risk. 7. Modeling of Systems for Risk Analysis. Part 3. Risk Analysis Method 8. Preliminary Hazard Analysis. 9. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis. 10. Deviation Analysis Using the HAZOP Method. 11. The Systemic and Organized Risk Analysis Method. 12. Fault Tree Analysis. 13. Event Tree and Bow-Tie Diagram Analysis. 14. Human Reliability Analysis. 15. Barrier Analysis and Layer of Protection Analysis. Part 4. Appendices Appendix 1. Occupational Hazard Checklists. Appendix 2. Causal Tree Analysis. Appendix 3. A Few Reminders on the Theory of Probability. Appendix 4. Useful Notions in Reliability Theory. Appendix 5. Data Sources for Reliability. Appendix 6. A Few Approaches for System Modelling. Appendix 7. CaseStudy: Chemical Process. Appendix 8. XRisk Software. About the Authors Jean-Marie Flaus is Professor at Joseph Fourier University in Grenoble, France.
This book is the seventh in a series of titles from the National Research Council that addresses the effects of exposure to low dose LET (Linear Energy Transfer) ionizing radiation and human health. Updating information previously presented in the 1990 publication, Health Effects of Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation: BEIR V, this book draws upon new data in both epidemiologic and experimental research. Ionizing radiation arises from both natural and man-made sources and at very high doses can produce damaging effects in human tissue that can be evident within days after exposure. However, it is the low-dose exposures that are the focus of this book. So-called “late” effects, such as cancer, are produced many years after the initial exposure. This book is among the first of its kind to include detailed risk estimates for cancer incidence in addition to cancer mortality. BEIR VII offers a full review of the available biological, biophysical, and epidemiological literature since the last BEIR report on the subject and develops the most up-to-date and comprehensive risk estimates for cancer and other health effects from exposure to low-level ionizing radiation.
Everyday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyse, communicate and control the level of risk entailed by these decisions remains one of the most pressing challenges to the analyst, scientist and manager. This book presents the foundational issues in risk analysis ? expressing risk, understanding what risk means, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The principal aim of the book is to give the reader the knowledge and basic thinking they require to approach risk and uncertainty to support decision making. Presents a statistical framework for dealing with risk and uncertainty. Includes detailed coverage of building and applying risk models and methods. Offers new perspectives on risk, risk assessment and the use of parametric probability models. Highlights a number of applications from business and industry. Adopts a conceptual approach based on elementary probability calculus and statistical theory. Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.
This collection explores the expansion of Chinese outbound investments, aimed to sustain the increased need for natural resources, and how they have amplified the magnitude of a possible international crisis that the People’s Republic of China may face in the near future by bringing together the views of a wide range of scholars. President Xi’s Belt and Road initiative (BRI), aimed to promote economic development and exchanges with China for over 60 countries, necessitates a wide range of security procedures. While the threats to Chinese enterprises and Chinese workers based on foreign soil are poised to increase, there is an urgent need to develop new guidelines for risk assessment, special insurance and crisis management. While the Chinese State Owned Enterprises are expanding their international reach capabilities, they still do not have the capacity to assure adequate security. In such a climate, this collection will be of profound value to policy makers, those working in the financial sector, and academics.
Everyday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyse, communicate and control the level of risk entailed by these decisions remains one of the most pressing challenges to the analyst, scientist and manager. This book presents the foundational issues in risk analysis - expressing risk, understanding what risk means, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The principal aim of the book is to give the reader the knowledge and basic thinking they require to approach risk and uncertainty to support decision making. * Presents a statistical framework for dealing with risk and uncertainty. * Includes detailed coverage of building and applying risk models and methods. * Offers new perspectives on risk, risk assessment and the use of parametric probability models. * Highlights a number of applications from business and industry. * Adopts a conceptual approach based on elementary probability calculus and statistical theory. Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.
Based on the author's 20 years of teaching, Risk Analysis in Engineering: Techniques, Tools, and Trends presents an engineering approach to probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). It emphasizes methods for comprehensive PRA studies, including techniques for risk management. The author assumes little or no prior knowledge of risk analysis on the p
In this paper, we provide an overview of the concerns surrounding the variations in the calculation of risk-weighted assets (RWAs) across banks and jurisdictions and how this might undermine the Basel III capital adequacy framework. We discuss the key drivers behind the differences in these calculations, drawing upon a sample of systemically important banks from Europe, North America, and Asia Pacific. We then discuss a range of policy options that could be explored to fix the actual and perceived problems with RWAs, and improve the use of risk-sensitive capital ratios.
A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.
GUIDELINES FOR REVALIDATING A PROCESS HAZARD ANALYSIS This book is derived from the experience of many companies in the chemical and hydrocarbon processing industries, and presents demonstrated, concise, and common sense approaches for a resource-effective revalidation of process hazard analyses (PHAs). It includes flowcharts, checklists, and worksheets that provide invaluable assistance to the revalidation process. The new edition, now as a guideline, provides a compete and thorough update of the first book and will provide much needed and requested guidance on PHA Revalidations including evaluating Prior PHA Studies, Identifying an Appropriate Revalidation Methodology, Preparing and Conducting the Revalidation Study Sessions, and Documenting the Revalidation Study.
