This study systematically investigates the representation of warm conveyor belts (WCBs) in large reforecast data sets of different numerical weather prediction models and evaluates the role of WCBs for the onset and life cycle of Atlantic-European weather regimes. The results emphasize the importance of accurate forecast of WCBs for sub-seasonal prediction on time scales beyond two weeks and tie the low forecast skill of blocked weather regimes over Europe to misrepresented WCBs.
Strong winds accompanying extratropical cyclones are commonly associated with various mesoscale features. This work introduces RAMEFI (RAndom-forest-based Mesoscale wind Feature Identification), an objective and flexible identification approach based on key surface characteristics to distinguish these features. RAMEFI is further applied to compile a climatology over Europe, offering a comprehensive analysis of feature frequency, distribution, and characteristics.
The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. - Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications - Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field - Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making - Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages
This book is the standard reference based on roughly 20 years of research on atmospheric rivers, emphasizing progress made on key research and applications questions and remaining knowledge gaps. The book presents the history of atmospheric-rivers research, the current state of scientific knowledge, tools, and policy-relevant (science-informed) problems that lend themselves to real-world application of the research—and how the topic fits into larger national and global contexts. This book is written by a global team of authors who have conducted and published the majority of critical research on atmospheric rivers over the past years. The book is intended to benefit practitioners in the fields of meteorology, hydrology and related disciplines, including students as well as senior researchers.
Although we are seeing more weather and climate extremes, individual extreme events are very diverse and generalization of trends is difficult. For example, mid-latitude and subtropical climate extremes such as heat waves, hurricanes and droughts have increased, and could have been caused by processes including arctic amplification, jet stream meandering, and tropical expansion. This volume documents various climate extreme events and associated changes that have been analyzed through diagnostics, modeling, and statistical approaches. The identification of patterns and mechanisms can aid the prediction of future extreme events. Volume highlights include: Compilation of processes and mechanisms unique to individual weather and climate extreme events Discussion of climate model performance in terms of simulating high-impact weather and climate extremes Summary of various existing theories, including controversial ones, on how climate extremes will continue to become stronger and more frequent Climate Extremes: Patterns and Mechanisms is a valuable resource for scientists and graduate students in the fields of geophysics, climate physics, natural hazards, and environmental science. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/how-does-changing-climate-bring-more-extreme-events
Statistical Methods for Geography is the essential introduction for geography students looking to fully understand and apply key statistical concepts and techniques. Now in its fifth edition, this text is an accessible statistics ‘101’ focused on student learning, and includes definitions, examples, and exercises throughout. Fully integrated with online self-assessment exercises and video overviews, it explains everything required to get full credits for any undergraduate statistics module. The fifth edition of this bestselling text includes: · Coverage of descriptive statistics, probability, inferential statistics, hypothesis testing and sampling, variance, correlation, regression analysis, spatial patterns, spatial data reduction using factor analysis and cluster analysis. · New examples from physical geography and additional real-world examples. · Updated in-text and online exercises along with downloadable datasets. This is the only text you’ll need for undergraduate courses in statistical analysis, statistical methods, and quantitative geography.
This book is composed of 12 review papers invited for the Palmen Memorial Symposium on Extratropical Cyclones held in Helsinki, Finland, 29 August - 2 September 1988. To celebrate the 90th anniversary of the birth of Professor Erik Palmén, this symposium was organized to give a state-of-the-art picture of research on the structure and dynamics of extratropical cyclones, a topic which Palmén pioneered during the era of advances in aerological analysis. This symposium was organized by the Geophysical Society of Finland and the American Meteorological Society in cooperation with the Danish, Norwegian and Swedish Geophysical Societies. Extratropical Cyclones offers state-of-the-art information on extratropical cyclones, and recent findings by European and American authorities in various subject areas. The first two chapters discuss Palmen's works on cyclones and his early general circulation concepts. The ten chapters following chronicle the advances in understanding cyclones; the theory, structure, and physical processes of cyclones; orographic cyclogenesis; and more. Extratropical Cyclones also contains synoptic case analyses, modeling results, examples of the phenomena discussed, and abundant references. While particular aspects are emphasized in the individual contributions, the book as a whole summarizes the major features of various kinds of extratropical cyclones based on observational analyses, theory and numerical experimentation. This volume is of interest to researchers in dynamic and synoptic meteorology, climatology and mesometeorology, as well as in numerical modeling and weather forecasting. It is also useful for meteorology courses at graduate and upper undergraduate levels.
The Baltic Sea oceanographic research community is wide and the research history is over 100 years old. Nevertheless, there is still no single, coherent book on the physical oceanography of the Baltic Sea as a whole. There is a strong need for such a book, coming from working oceanographers as well as the university teaching programmes in advanced undergraduate to graduate levels. In the regional conference series in physical oceanography (Baltic Sea Science Conference, Baltic Sea Oceanographers' conference, Baltex-conferences) about 500 scientists take part regularly. Even more scientists work in the fields of marine biology, chemistry and the environment, and they need information on the physics of the Baltic Sea as well. There are nine countries bordering on the Baltic Sea and five more in the runoff area. The Baltic Sea as a source of fish, means of transportation and leisure activities is highly important to the regional society. In the runoff area there are a total of 85 million people. Research and protection strategies need to be developed, as the Baltic Sea is probably the most polluted sea in the world. Since the Baltic Sea has become an inner sea of the EU (apart from small shore parts of Russia in Petersburg and Kaliningrad), it is anticipated that the importance of the region will consequently rise. The book will arouse interest among students, scientists and decision makers involved with the Baltic problems. It will also give important background information for those working with biogeochemical processes in the Baltic Sea, because the physical forcing for those processes is of vital importance.
