Report on Deterrence in a World of Nuclear Multipolarity
Report on Deterrence in a World of Nuclear Multipolarity

Author: United States. International Security Advisory Board

Publisher:

Published: 2023

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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The report examines the challenges facing the United States in a world of nuclear multipolarity. This study first identifies the questions for U.S. deterrence, extended deterrence and assurance, and nuclear nonproliferation. It then evaluates deterrence strategy options, potential arms control measures, implications for reducing the role of nuclear weapons, and the impact of future risk reduction measures. The report concludes with specific recommendations for the Department of State. The report is organized in response to the specific subjects the ISAB was directed to consider by the Terms of Reference – deterrence, extended deterrence and assurance, and nonproliferation challenges; deterrence strategy options; potential arms control measures; implications for reducing the role of nuclear weapons; and the impact of future risk reduction measures (see Annex A). The report concludes with a consolidated list of recommendations for the Department of State in responding to a world of nuclear multipolarity.

Nuclear Deterrence in a Multipolar World
Nuclear Deterrence in a Multipolar World

Author: Stephen J Cimbala

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2017-07-05

Total Pages: 241

ISBN-13: 131708649X

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The view that America and Russia have burned their candles on security cooperation with respect to nuclear weapons is simply mistaken. This timely study identifies twelve themes or issue areas that must be addressed by the United States and Russia if they are to provide shared, successful leadership in the management of nuclear world order. Designed as supplementary reading in upper division and graduate courses in national security policy, defense, and nuclear arms control, it is also suitable for courses taught at military staff and command colleges and-or war colleges.

Long Shadows
Long Shadows

Author: Stacie Pettyjohn

Publisher:

Published: 2022

Total Pages: 46

ISBN-13:

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This report has aimed to take stock of the nuclear policies and postures of the United States and its three primary nuclear rivals--Russia, China, and North Korea. We therefore have covered only a part of the global strategic landscape, which includes five additional nuclear weapons states and an aspiring nuclear power in Iran. Nevertheless, this partial assessment has demonstrated that the nuclear order is undergoing a transition. We are entering an unprecedented multipolar nuclear world where the United States must simultaneously deter two nuclear great powers, and the nuclear dangers are growing.

Strategic Stability in the Post-Cold War World and the Future of Nuclear Disarmament
Strategic Stability in the Post-Cold War World and the Future of Nuclear Disarmament

Author: Melvin L. Best (Jr.)

Publisher: Springer

Published: 1995-10-31

Total Pages: 348

ISBN-13:

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The contributors to Strategic Stability in the Post-Cold War World and the Future of Nuclear Disarmament recognize that the collapse of the former Soviet Union has left a conceptual vacuum in the definition of a new world order. Never before have the components of world order all changed so rapidly, so deeply, or so globally. As Henry Kissinger points out, the emergence of a new world order will have to confront three fundamental questions: What are the basic units of the international order? What are their means of interacting? and What are the goals on behalf of which they interact? The main question is whether the establishment and maintenance of an international system will turn out to be a conscious design, or the outgrowth of a trial of strength. The concept of a planning framework that could shape or govern these interactions is emerging and may now be at hand. Capturing this emerging framework is the thrust of the present book, which seeks to reach a consensus on defining a model (calculus) for strategic stability in a changing, multipolar world in the presence of weapons of mass destruction - the model being the core of a conscious design to shape or govern the interactions of nation states in a new world order. The following taxonomy of the dimensions of strategic stability was accepted by the contributors as the first step towards such a model: Stability in geopolitics and balance of power; Arms race stability; Deterrence stability, crisis stability, first strike stability; Stability in the presence of clandestine proliferation. After four gruelling days, this unprecedented gathering of top academic, scientific and military experts from the USA, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, and Israel reached a general agreement that is captured in the Consensus Report; each participant presented an individual contribution that further fleshes out the dimensions of strategic stability. This unprecedented work provides joint concepts for all leaders of the nuclear powers to shape their decisions for the coming decades. And for the first time they can base their decisions on agreed scientific facts, not just political judgments.

The New Nuclear Disorder
The New Nuclear Disorder

Author: Stephen J. Cimbala

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2016-02-17

Total Pages: 269

ISBN-13: 1317022726

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In the twenty-first century, the United States confronts an international system of great complexity and shifting security challenges. Among these challenges are those posed by nuclear weapons. Instead of becoming obsolete or being marginalized by the end of the Cold War and the demise of the Soviet Union, nuclear weapons have become more important to present and future international stability and peace but the relationship is paradoxical. On one hand, the spread of nuclear weapons to additional states with unsettled grievances or hegemonic ambitions threatens to destabilize local balances of power and set off regional arms races. In addition, the possible acquisition by terrorists of nuclear weapons or fissile materials creates a threat that may be ’beyond deterrence’ according to hitherto accepted concepts. On the other hand, nuclear weapons in the hands of other states can contribute to stable deterrence and help to prevent nuclear proliferation to international miscreants. Certain cases loom large in the short run that highlight this book’s relevance, including the possible acquisition and deployment of nuclear weapons by Iran and the continuing tensions created by North Korea’s nuclear arsenal. The Obama ’pivot’ of national security and defense emphasis to Asia reflects not only the growing economic importance of that region, but also the growing number of security dilemmas in a region that is already awash in nuclear forces. The management of nuclear crises and even the possible need to terminate nuclear wars before they expand beyond a single region are among the possible challenges facing future U.S. and allied policy makers and military leaders.

Military Strategy: A Very Short Introduction
Military Strategy: A Very Short Introduction

Author: Antulio J. Echevarria II

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Published: 2024

Total Pages: 161

ISBN-13: 0197760155

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Military Strategy: A Very Short Introduction adapts Clausewitz's framework to highlight the dynamic relationship between the main elements of strategy: purpose, method, and means. Drawing on historical examples, Antulio J. Echevarria discusses the major types of military strategy and how emerging technologies are affecting them. This second edition has been updated to include an expanded chapter on manipulation through cyberwarfare and new further reading.

Winning and Losing the Nuclear Peace
Winning and Losing the Nuclear Peace

Author: Michael Krepon

Publisher: Stanford University Press

Published: 2021-10-19

Total Pages: 544

ISBN-13: 1503629619

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The definitive guide to the history of nuclear arms control by a wise eavesdropper and masterful storyteller, Michael Krepon. The greatest unacknowledged diplomatic achievement of the Cold War was the absence of mushroom clouds. Deterrence alone was too dangerous to succeed; it needed arms control to prevent nuclear warfare. So, U.S. and Soviet leaders ventured into the unknown to devise guardrails for nuclear arms control and to treat the Bomb differently than other weapons. Against the odds, they succeeded. Nuclear weapons have not been used in warfare for three quarters of a century. This book is the first in-depth history of how the nuclear peace was won by complementing deterrence with reassurance, and then jeopardized by discarding arms control after the Cold War ended. Winning and Losing the Nuclear Peace tells a remarkable story of high-wire acts of diplomacy, close calls, dogged persistence, and extraordinary success. Michael Krepon brings to life the pitched battles between arms controllers and advocates of nuclear deterrence, the ironic twists and unexpected outcomes from Truman to Trump. What began with a ban on atmospheric testing and a nonproliferation treaty reached its apogee with treaties that mandated deep cuts and corralled "loose nukes" after the Soviet Union imploded. After the Cold War ended, much of this diplomatic accomplishment was cast aside in favor of freedom of action. The nuclear peace is now imperiled by no less than four nuclear-armed rivalries. Arms control needs to be revived and reimagined for Russia and China to prevent nuclear warfare. New guardrails have to be erected. Winning and Losing the Nuclear Peace is an engaging account of how the practice of arms control was built from scratch, how it was torn down, and how it can be rebuilt.

Conventional Deterrence
Conventional Deterrence

Author: John J. Mearsheimer

Publisher: Cornell University Press

Published: 1985-08-21

Total Pages: 298

ISBN-13: 1501713256

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Conventional Deterrence is a book about the origins of war. Why do nations faced with the prospect of large-scale conventional war opt for or against an offensive strategy? John J. Mearsheimer examines a number of crises that led to major conventional wars to explain why deterrence failed. He focuses first on Allied and German decision making in the years 1939–1940, analyzing why the Allies did not strike first against Germany after declaring war and, conversely, why the Germans did attack the West. Turning to the Middle East, he examines the differences in Israeli and Egyptian strategic doctrines prior to the start of the major conventional conflicts in that region. Mearsheimer then critically assays the relative strengths and weaknesses of NATO and the Warsaw Pact to determine the prospects for conventional deterrence in any future crisis. He is also concerned with examining such relatively technical issues as the impact of precision-guided munitions (PGM) on conventional deterrence and the debate over maneuver versus attrition warfare.Mearsheimer pays considerable attention to questions of military strategy and tactics. Challenging the claim that conventional detrrence is largely a function of the numerical balance of forces, he also takes issue with the school of thought that ascribes deterrence failures to the dominance of "offensive" weaponry. In addition to examining the military consideration underlying deterrence, he also analyzes the interaction between those military factors and the broader political considerations that move a nation to war.