This study reviewed the applicability of autonomy across a broad array of Department of Defense (DOD) missions and concluded that there are both substantial operational benefits and potential perils associated with its use. Autonomy delivers significant military value, including opportunities to reduce the number of warfighters in harm's way, increase the quality and speed of decisions in time-critical operations, and enable new missions that would otherwise be impossible. Autonomy also delivers significant value across a diverse array of global markets. Both enabling technologies and commercial applications are advancing rapidly in response to market opportunities. This study concludes that DOD must accelerate its exploitation of autonomy -- both to realize the potential military value and to remain ahead of adversaries who also will exploit its operational benefits. Figures and tables. This is a print on demand report.
Dr. Greg Zacharias, former Chief Scientist of the United States Air Force (2015-18), explores next steps in autonomous systems (AS) development, fielding, and training. Rapid advances in AS development and artificial intelligence (AI) research will change how we think about machines, whether they are individual vehicle platforms or networked enterprises. The payoff will be considerable, affording the US military significant protection for aviators, greater effectiveness in employment, and unlimited opportunities for novel and disruptive concepts of operations. Autonomous Horizons: The Way Forward identifies issues and makes recommendations for the Air Force to take full advantage of this transformational technology.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is on everybody’s minds these days. Most of the world’s leading companies are making massive investments in it. Governments are scrambling to catch up. Every single one of us who uses Google Search or any of the new digital assistants on our smartphones has witnessed first-hand how quickly these developments now go. Many analysts foresee truly disruptive changes in education, employment, health, knowledge generation, mobility, etc. But what will AI mean for defense and security? In a new study HCSS offers a unique perspective on this question. Most studies to date quickly jump from AI to autonomous (mostly weapon) systems. They anticipate future armed forces that mostly resemble today’s armed forces, engaging in fairly similar types of activities with a still primarily industrial-kinetic capability bundle that would increasingly be AI-augmented. The authors of this study argue that AI may have a far more transformational impact on defense and security whereby new incarnations of ‘armed force’ start doing different things in novel ways. The report sketches a much broader option space within which defense and security organizations (DSOs) may wish to invest in successive generations of AI technologies. It suggests that some of the most promising investment opportunities to start generating the sustainable security effects that our polities, societies and economies expect may lie in in the realms of prevention and resilience. Also in those areas any large-scale application of AI will have to result from a preliminary open-minded (on all sides) public debate on its legal, ethical and privacy implications. The authors submit, however, that such a debate would be more fruitful than the current heated discussions about ‘killer drones’ or robots. Finally, the study suggests that the advent of artificial super-intelligence (i.e. AI that is superior across the board to human intelligence), which many experts now put firmly within the longer-term planning horizons of our DSOs, presents us with unprecedented risks but also opportunities that we have to start to explore. The report contains an overview of the role that ‘intelligence’ - the computational part of the ability to achieve goals in the world - has played in defense and security throughout human history; a primer on AI (what it is, where it comes from and where it stands today - in both civilian and military contexts); a discussion of the broad option space for DSOs it opens up; 12 illustrative use cases across that option space; and a set of recommendations for - especially - small- and medium sized defense and security organizations.
Emerging technologies have always played an important role in armed conflict. From the crossbow to cyber capabilities, technology that could be weaponized to create an advantage over an adversary has inevitably found its way into military arsenals for use in armed conflict. The weaponization of emerging technologies, however, raises challenging legal issues with respect to the law of armed conflict. As States continue to develop and exploit new technologies, how will the law of armed conflict address the use of these technologies on the battlefield? Is existing law sufficient to regulate new technologies, such as cyber capabilities, autonomous weapons systems, and artificial intelligence? Have emerging technologies fundamentally altered the way we should understand concepts such as law-of-war precautions and the principle of distinction? How can we ensure compliance and accountability in light of technological advancement? This volume of the Lieber Studies explores these critical questions while highlighting the legal challenges--and opportunities--presented by the use of emerging technologies on the battlefield.
Just a sample of the contents ... contains over 2,800 total pages .... PROSPECTS FOR THE RULE OF LAW IN CYBERSPACE Cyberwarfare and Operational Art CYBER WARFARE GOVERNANCE: EVALUATION OF CURRENT INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS ON THE OFFENSIVE USE OF CYBER Cyber Attacks and the Legal Justification for an Armed Response UNTYING OUR HANDS: RECONSIDERING CYBER AS A SEPARATE INSTRUMENT OF NATIONAL POWER Effects-Based Operations in the Cyber Domain Recommendations for Model-Driven Paradigms for Integrated Approaches to Cyber Defense MILLENNIAL WARFARE IGNORING A REVOLUTION IN MILITARY AFFAIRS: THE NEED TO CREATE A SEPARATE BRANCH OF THE ARMED FORCES FOR CYBER WARFARE SPECIAL OPERATIONS AND CYBER WARFARE LESSONS FROM THE FRONT: A CASE STUDY OF RUSSIAN CYBER WARFARE ADAPTING UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE DOCTRINE TO CYBERSPACE OPERATIONS: AN EXAMINATION OF HACKTIVIST BASED INSURGENCIES Addressing Human Factors Gaps in Cyber Defense Airpower History and the Cyber Force of the Future How Organization for the Cyber Domain Outpaced Strategic Thinking and Forgot the Lessons of the Past THE COMMAND OF THE TREND: SOCIAL MEDIA AS A WEAPON IN THE INFORMATION AGE SPYING FOR THE RIGHT REASONS: CONTESTED NORMS IN CYBERSPACE AIR FORCE CYBERWORX REPORT: REMODELING AIR FORCE CYBER COMMAND & CONTROL THE CYBER WAR: MAINTAINING AND CONTROLLING THE “KEY CYBER TERRAIN” OF THE CYBERSPACE DOMAIN WHEN NORMS FAIL: NORTH KOREA AND CYBER AS AN ELEMENT OF STATECRAFT AN ANTIFRAGILE APPROACH TO PREPARING FOR CYBER CONFLICT AIR FORCE CYBER MISSION ASSURANCE SOURCES OF MISSION UNCERTAINTY Concurrency Attacks and Defenses Cyber Workforce Retention Airpower Lessons for an Air Force Cyber-Power Targeting ¬Theory IS BRINGING BACK WARRANT OFFICERS THE ANSWER? A LOOK AT HOW THEY COULD WORK IN THE AIR FORCE CYBER OPERATIONS CAREER FIELD NEW TOOLS FOR A NEW TERRAIN AIR FORCE SUPPORT TO SPECIAL OPERATIONS IN THE CYBER ENVIRONMENT Learning to Mow Grass: IDF Adaptations to Hybrid Threats CHINA’S WAR BY OTHER MEANS: UNVEILING CHINA’S QUEST FOR INFORMATION DOMINANCE THE ISLAMIC STATE’S TACTICS IN SYRIA: ROLE OF SOCIAL MEDIA IN SHIFTING A PEACEFUL ARAB SPRING INTO TERRORISM NON-LETHAL WEAPONS: THE KEY TO A MORE AGGRESSIVE STRATEGY TO COMBAT TERRORISM THOUGHTS INVADE US: LEXICAL COGNITION AND CYBERSPACE The Cyber Threat to Military Just-In-Time Logistics: Risk Mitigation and the Return to Forward Basing PROSPECTS FOR THE RULE OF LAW IN CYBERSPACE Cyberwarfare and Operational Art CYBER WARFARE GOVERNANCE: EVALUATION OF CURRENT INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS ON THE OFFENSIVE USE OF CYBER Cyber Attacks and the Legal Justification for an Armed Response UNTYING OUR HANDS: RECONSIDERING CYBER AS A SEPARATE INSTRUMENT OF NATIONAL POWER Effects-Based Operations in the Cyber Domain Recommendations for Model-Driven Paradigms for Integrated Approaches to Cyber Defense MILLENNIAL WARFARE IGNORING A REVOLUTION IN MILITARY AFFAIRS: THE NEED TO CREATE A SEPARATE BRANCH OF THE ARMED FORCES FOR CYBER WARFARE SPECIAL OPERATIONS AND CYBER WARFARE LESSONS FROM THE FRONT: A CASE STUDY OF RUSSIAN CYBER WARFARE ADAPTING UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE DOCTRINE TO CYBERSPACE OPERATIONS: AN EXAMINATION OF HACKTIVIST BASED INSURGENCIES Addressing Human Factors Gaps in Cyber Defense Airpower History and the Cyber Force of the Future How Organization for the Cyber Domain Outpaced Strategic Thinking and Forgot the Lessons of the Past THE COMMAND OF THE TREND: SOCIAL MEDIA AS A WEAPON IN THE INFORMATION AGE SPYING FOR THE RIGHT REASONS: CONTESTED NORMS IN CYBERSPACE AIR FORCE CYBERWORX REPORT: REMODELING AIR FORCE CYBER COMMAND & CONTROL THE CYBER WAR: MAINTAINING AND CONTROLLING THE “KEY CYBER TERRAIN” OF THE CYBERSPACE DOMAIN WHEN NORMS FAIL: NORTH KOREA AND CYBER AS AN ELEMENT OF STATECRAFT AN ANTIFRAGILE APPROACH TO PREPARING FOR CYBER CONFLICT AIR FORCE CYBER MISSION ASSURANCE SOURCES OF MISSION UNCERTAINTY Concurrency Attacks and Defenses Cyber Workforce Retention
This book aims to understand how public organizations adapt to and manage situations characterized by fluidity, ambiguity, complexity and unclear technologies, thus exploring public governance in times of turbulence.
The conduct of warfare is constantly shaped by new forces that create complexities in the battlespace for military operations. This inaugural volume of the Lieber Studies Series seeks to address several issues in the confluence of law and armed conflict, featuring chapters from world class scholars, policymakers and other government officials; military and civilian legal practitioners; and other thought leaders who examine the role of the law of armed conflict in current and future armed conflicts around the world.
