This Element aims to provide a systemic description of the techniques and research framework of recurrence interval analysis of financial time series. The authors also provide perspectives on future topics in this direction.
This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Regional Cooperation for the Sustainable Development and Management in Northeast Asia" that was published in Sustainability
Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Geophysical Monograph Series, Volume 196. Extreme Events and Natural Hazards: The Complexity Perspective examines recent developments in complexity science that provide a new approach to understanding extreme events. This understanding is critical to the development of strategies for the prediction of natural hazards and mitigation of their adverse consequences. The volume is a comprehensive collection of current developments in the understanding of extreme events. The following critical areas are highlighted: understanding extreme events, natural hazard prediction and development of mitigation strategies, recent developments in complexity science, global change and how it relates to extreme events, and policy sciences and perspective. With its overarching theme, Extreme Events and Natural Hazards will be of interest and relevance to scientists interested in nonlinear geophysics, natural hazards, atmospheric science, hydrology, oceanography, tectonics, and space weather.
This book presents the latest perspectives and challenges within the interrelated fields of econophysics and sociophysics, which have emerged from the application of statistical physics to economics and sociology. Economic and financial markets appear to be in a permanent state of flux. Billions of agents interact with each other, giving rise to complex dynamics of economic quantities at the micro and macro levels. With the availability of huge data sets, researchers can address questions at a much more granular level than was previously possible. Fundamental questions regarding the aggregation of actions and information and the coordination, complexity, and evolution of economic and financial networks are currently receiving much attention in the econophysics research agenda. In parallel, the sociophysics literature has focused on large-scale social data and their interrelations. In this book, leading researchers from different communities – economists, sociologists, financial analysts, mathematicians, physicists, statisticians, and others – report on their recent work and their analyses of economic and social behavior.
The significant amount of information available in any field requires a systematic and analytical approach to select the most critical information and anticipate major events. During the last decade, the world has witnessed a rapid expansion of applications of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) algorithms to an increasingly broad range of financial markets and problems. Machine learning and AI algorithms facilitate this process understanding, modelling and forecasting the behaviour of the most relevant financial variables. The main contribution of this book is the presentation of new theoretical and applied AI perspectives to find solutions to unsolved finance questions. This volume proposes an optimal model for the volatility smile, for modelling high-frequency liquidity demand and supply and for the simulation of market microstructure features. Other new AI developments explored in this book includes building a universal model for a large number of stocks, developing predictive models based on the average price of the crowd, forecasting the stock price using the attention mechanism in a neural network, clustering multivariate time series into different market states, proposing a multivariate distance nonlinear causality test and filtering out false investment strategies with an unsupervised learning algorithm. Machine Learning and AI in Finance explores the most recent advances in the application of innovative machine learning and artificial intelligence models to predict financial time series, to simulate the structure of the financial markets, to explore nonlinear causality models, to test investment strategies and to price financial options. The chapters in this book were originally published as a special issue of the Quantitative Finance journal.
This collection represents successful invited submissions from the papers presented at the 8th Annual Conference of Energy Economics and Management held in Beijing, China, 22–24 September 2017. With over 500 participants, the conference was co-hosted by the Management Science Department of National Natural Science Foundation of China, the Chinese Society of Energy Economics and Management, and Renmin University of China on the subject area of “Energy Transition of China: Opportunities and Challenges”. The major strategies to transform the energy system of China to a sustainable model include energy/economic structure adjustment, resource conservation, and technology innovation. Accordingly, the conference and its associated publications encourage research to address the major issues faced in supporting the energy transition of China. Papers published in this collection cover the broad spectrum of energy economics issues, including building energy efficiency, industrial energy demand, public policies to promote new energy technologies, power system control technology, emission reduction policies in energy-intensive industries, emission measurements of cities, energy price movement, and the impact of new energy vehicle.
Fundamental topics and new methods in time series analysis Analysis of Financial Time Series provides a comprehensive and systematic introduction to financial econometric models and their application to modeling and prediction of financial time series data. It utilizes real-world examples and real financial data throughout the book to apply the models and methods described. The author begins with basic characteristics of financial time series data before covering three main topics: analysis and application of univariate financial time series; the return series of multiple assets; and Bayesian inference in finance methods. Timely topics and recent results include: Value at Risk (VaR) High-frequency financial data analysis Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods Derivative pricing using jump diffusion with closed-form formulas VaR calculation using extreme value theory based on a non-homogeneous two-dimensional Poisson process Multivariate volatility models with time-varying correlations Ideal as a fundamental introduction to time series for MBA students or as a reference for researchers and practitioners in business and finance, Analysis of Financial Time Series offers an in-depth and up-to-date account of these vital methods.
This book provides an overview of the current state-of-the-art of nonlinear time series analysis, richly illustrated with examples, pseudocode algorithms and real-world applications. Avoiding a “theorem-proof” format, it shows concrete applications on a variety of empirical time series. The book can be used in graduate courses in nonlinear time series and at the same time also includes interesting material for more advanced readers. Though it is largely self-contained, readers require an understanding of basic linear time series concepts, Markov chains and Monte Carlo simulation methods. The book covers time-domain and frequency-domain methods for the analysis of both univariate and multivariate (vector) time series. It makes a clear distinction between parametric models on the one hand, and semi- and nonparametric models/methods on the other. This offers the reader the option of concentrating exclusively on one of these nonlinear time series analysis methods. To make the book as user friendly as possible, major supporting concepts and specialized tables are appended at the end of every chapter. In addition, each chapter concludes with a set of key terms and concepts, as well as a summary of the main findings. Lastly, the book offers numerous theoretical and empirical exercises, with answers provided by the author in an extensive solutions manual.
Survival data consist of a single event for each population unit, namely, end of life, which is modeled with a life distribution. However, many applications involve repeated-events data, where a unit may accumulate numerous events over time. This applied book provides practitioners with basic nonparametric methods for such data.