Sustaining China's Economic Growth After the Global Financial Crisis
Author: Nicholas R. Lardy
Publisher: Peterson Institute
Published: 2012
Total Pages: 213
ISBN-13: 088132647X
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Rebalancing and Sustaining Growth in China
Author: Huw McKay
Publisher: ANU E Press
Published: 2012-07-01
Total Pages: 386
ISBN-13: 1921862807
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThe idea that China’s economy needs to rebalance is no longer controversial inside or outside the country. Whether it be the increasing recognition of income inequality at home; the still large external surplus; the focus on consumption and industrial upgrading in the policy discourse; the economic, political and social tensions associated with the major decline in housing affordability; the profound conflict between industrialisation, urbanisation and the biosphere; the profitability gulf between the top SOEs and private firms; or the uni-directional pressures pushing on the real exchange rate; the evidence in favour of a highly imbalanced structure is omnipresent. Rebalancing and Sustaining Growth in China brings together some of the world’s leading observers of the Chinese economy to debate the multifarious questions pertaining to rebalancing. How are we to make sense of the many, often contradictory, proposals that seek the same ultimate objective of a more sustainable growth model? What mix of policies will be most effective in addressing the required structural change without sacrificing prosperity along the way? Where should we look for root causes, and how can we avoid getting distracted by symptoms? How do China’s unique internal migration dynamics – and the Lewis turning point – constrain its options? What role will and should financial, fiscal and welfare reform play in the process? Where do water and energy security fit in? Can China innovate before it gets old – or can China get smart before it gets rich? And are intergenerational issues being taken into account?
Banking on Growth Models
Author: Stephen Bell
Publisher: Cornell University Press
Published: 2022-05-15
Total Pages: 306
ISBN-13: 1501762532
DOWNLOAD EBOOKBanking on Growth Models contends that China's rapid economic rise from the late 1970s to today has been built on and shaped by a highly politicized and inefficient bank-centric financial system. Stephen Bell and Hui Feng argue that if the Chinese growth model drives how key economic sectors interact, no amount of incremental reform can have much impact on the financial system—meaningful reform can stem only from a revised growth model. For a time after the global financial crisis, it appeared that the expansion of a more market-oriented shadow banking system might help sustain China's economic growth. Since around 2015, however, Xi Jinping's regime has reversed this trajectory and placed China's financial system under heavy state control, resulting in slowed economic development and skyrocketing national debt. China's market transition and economic rebalancing are now in doubt, as is the fate of the nation's economy. By pinpointing finance as a vital element of the growth model, Bell and Feng provide a convincing assessment of financial risks and the prospects for economic rebalancing in China. Banking on Growth Models demystifies the world of Chinese banking and finance as it investigates an ever-rising national debt, a declining rate of economic growth, and the possibility of dire and drastic reform by the Asian superpower's government.
China's Rise
Author: C. Fred Bergsten
Publisher: Peterson Institute
Published: 2009
Total Pages: 292
ISBN-13: 0881324345
DOWNLOAD EBOOKHelps the United States and the rest of the world better comprehend the facts and dynamics underpinning China's rise. This book analyzes the data on China's economy, foreign and domestic policy, and national security.
China 2049
Author: David Dollar
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
Published: 2020-06-09
Total Pages: 444
ISBN-13: 0815738064
DOWNLOAD EBOOKHow will China reform its economy as it aspires to become the next economic superpower? It's clear that China is the world's next economic superpower. But what isn't so clear is how China will get there by the middle of this century. It now faces tremendous challenges such as fostering innovation, dealing with ageing problem and coping with a less accommodative global environment. In this book, economists from China's leading university and America's best-known think tank offer in depth analyses of these challenges. Does China have enough talent and right policy and institutional mix to transit from input-driven to innovation-driven economy? What does ageing mean, in terms of labor supply, consumption demand and social welfare expenditure? Can China contain the environmental and climate change risks? How should the financial system be transformed in order to continuously support economic growth and keep financial risks under control? What fiscal reforms are required in order to balance between economic efficiency and social harmony? What roles should the state-owned enterprises play in the future Chinese economy? In addition, how will technological competition between the United States and China affect each country's development? Will the Chinese yuan emerge as a major reserve currency, and would this destabilize the international financial system? What will be China's role in the international economic institutions? And will the United States and other established powers accept a growing role for China and the rest of the developing world in the governance of global institutions such as the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund, or will the world devolve into competing blocs? This book provides unique insights into independent analyses and policy recommendations by a group of top Chinese and American scholars. Whether China succeeds or fails in economic reform will have a large impact, not just on China's development, but also on stability and prosperity for the whole world.
Is China's Export-Oriented Growth Sustainable?
Author: Kai Guo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Published: 2009-08
Total Pages: 32
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis paper assesses the sustainability of China's export-oriented growth over the medium to longer term. It shows that maintaining the current export-oriented growth would require significant gains in market share through lower prices in a range of industries. This, in turn, could be achieved through a combination of increases in productivity, lower profits, and higher implicit or explicit subsidies to industry. However, the evidence suggest that it will prove difficult to accommodate such price reductions within existing profit margins or through productivity gains. Moving up the value-added chain, shifting the composition of exports, diversifying the export base, and increasing domestic value added of exports could give room to further export expansion. However, experiences from Asian economies that had similar export-oriented growth suggest there are limits to the global market share a country can occupy. Rebalancing growth toward private consumption would provide a large impetus to output growth and reduce the need for gaining further market share.
China’s Economic Growth Prospects
Author: Cai Fang
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Published: 2016-01-29
Total Pages: 247
ISBN-13: 1781005850
DOWNLOAD EBOOKChina has grown rapidly since the reform initiation of the 1970s. China’s Economic Growth Prospects narrates the contribution of demographic transition to recent economic growth in China, and provides suggestions for ways in which it can sustain growth over the next few decades. The expert author provides reasons for the economic slowdown since the second decade of the twenty-first century; explores the challenges facing China’s long-term sustainability of growth with the disappearance of demographic dividend; and proposes policy suggestions. He concludes that, in order to avoid the middle-income trap, economic growth in China must transform from an inputs-driven pattern, to a productivity-driven pattern. Academics, researchers and students of economics and business, particularly those specialising in China, will find this book to be a useful resource. Investment bankers, journalists, politicians and policy makers will find the discussions of past experience and the future potential of the Chinese economy to be of interest.
China’s Productivity Convergence and Growth Potential—A Stocktaking and Sectoral Approach
Author: Min Zhu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Published: 2019-11-27
Total Pages: 46
ISBN-13: 1513515357
DOWNLOAD EBOOKChina’s growth potential has become a hotly debated topic as the economy has reached an income level susceptible to the “middle-income trap” and financial vulnerabilities are mounting after years of rapid credit expansion. However, the existing literature has largely focused on macro level aggregates, which are ill suited to understanding China’s significant structural transformation and its impact on economic growth. To fill the gap, this paper takes a deep dive into China’s convergence progress in 38 industrial sectors and 11 services sectors, examines past sectoral transitions, and predicts future shifts. We find that China’s productivity convergence remains at an early stage, with the industrial sector more advanced than services. Large variations exist among subsectors, with high-tech industrial sectors, in particular the ICT sector, lagging low-tech sectors. Going forward, ample room remains for further convergence, but the shrinking distance to the frontier, the structural shift from industry to services, and demographic changes will put sustained downward pressure on growth, which could slow to 5 percent by 2025 and 4 percent by 2030. Digitalization, SOE reform, and services sector opening up could be three major forces boosting future growth, while the risks of a financial crisis and a reversal in global integration in trade and technology could slow the pace of convergence.
China’s Grand Strategy
Author: Andrew Scobell
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Published: 2020-07-27
Total Pages: 155
ISBN-13: 1977404200
DOWNLOAD EBOOKTo explore what extended competition between the United States and China might entail out to 2050, the authors of this report identified and characterized China’s grand strategy, analyzed its component national strategies (diplomacy, economics, science and technology, and military affairs), and assessed how successful China might be at implementing these over the next three decades.
China's Changing Trade and the Implications for the CLMV
Author: Mr.Koshy Mathai
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Published: 2016-09-01
Total Pages: 84
ISBN-13: 1475531710
DOWNLOAD EBOOKChina’s trade patterns are evolving. While it started in light manufacturing and the assembly of more sophisticated products as part of global supply chains, China is now moving up the value chain, “onshoring” the production of higher-value-added upstream products and moving into more sophisticated downstream products as well. At the same time, with its wages rising, it has started to exit some lower-end, more labor-intensive sectors. These changes are taking place in the broader context of China’s rebalancing—away from exports and toward domestic demand, and within the latter, away from investment and toward consumption—and as a consequence, demand for some commodity imports is slowing, while consumption imports are slowly rising. The evolution of Chinese trade, investment, and consumption patterns offers opportunities and challenges to low-wage, low-income countries, including China’s neighbors in the Mekong region. Cambodia, Lao P.D.R., Myanmar, and Vietnam (the CLMV) are all open economies that are highly integrated with China. Rebalancing in China may mean less of a role for commodity exports from the region, but at the same time, the CLMV’s low labor costs suggest that manufacturing assembly for export could take off as China becomes less competitive, and as China itself demands more consumption items. Labor costs, however, are only part of the story. The CLMV will need to strengthen their infrastructure, education, governance, and trade regimes, and also run sound macro policies in order to capitalize fully on the opportunities presented by China’s transformation. With such policy efforts, the CLMV could see their trade and integration with global supply chains grow dramatically in the coming years.
