This book sets out to reframe the theory of real options so that it can be used to support environmental investments for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Climate change policy often involves making decisions that concern extended time periods, and doing so under considerable uncertainty. By expanding and broadening the framework of real options, this book first introduces readers to new ways of quantifying investment decisions that can much more effectively address the shape and size of the uncertainty than traditional approaches using Net Present Value. In turn, the second part of the book applies this new theoretical framework to climate change policy by presenting a number of examples, and by providing a general perspective on investment decisions related to climate change and how to prioritize them.
Climate change represents an increasing threat to the continued development of the people, preservation of ecosystems, and economic growth of Asia and the Pacific. Mainstreaming climate risk management in all aspects of development is thus key to an effective transition to climate-resilient development pathways. ADB's climate risk management framework aims to reduce risks resulting from climate change to investment projects in Asia and the Pacific. A key step in this framework is the technical and economic valuation of climate-proofing measures. This report describes the conduct of the cost-benefit analysis of climate proofing investment projects. An important message is that the presence of uncertainty about climate change does not invalidate the conduct of the economic analysis of investment projects, nor does it require a new type of economic analysis. However, the presence of uncertainty does require a different type of decision-making process in which technical and economic expertise combine to present decision makers with the best possible information on the economic efficiency of alternative designs of investment projects.
Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise.
In light of the Sustainable Development Goals, sustainability is a factor to consider for understanding the changes that are coming in the business world and in different areas of management. Companies must reorient their business objectives towards sustainable and responsible production for the environment and society. In this context of change, it is important to open the debate and obtain more thorough knowledge on how companies should change their leaderships strategies and carry out their financial planning, as well as analyze the risk of their clients and innovative projects that respect the environment. Financial Management and Risk Analysis Strategies for Business Sustainability proposes a series of practical and theoretical perspectives on how the business world has to evolve to adapt to the new situation the world has reached due to undeniable climate change forcing businesses to redefine their productive processes and internal organization. Topics highlighted include financial management procedures, corporate social responsibility, risk analysis, financial literacy, and innovation in sustainability and sustainable development. This book is a useful reference source for managers, executives, engineers, business professionals, financial analysts, researchers, academicians, and students in the areas of management, human resources, accounting and finance, taxation, environmental economics, and some engineering areas.
A guide to using the power of design flexibility to improve the performance of complex technological projects, for designers, managers, users, and analysts. Project teams can improve results by recognizing that the future is inevitably uncertain and that by creating flexible designs they can adapt to eventualities. This approach enables them to take advantage of new opportunities and avoid harmful losses. Designers of complex, long-lasting projects—such as communication networks, power plants, or hospitals—must learn to abandon fixed specifications and narrow forecasts. They need to avoid the “flaw of averages,” the conceptual pitfall that traps so many designs in underperformance. Failure to allow for changing circumstances risks leaving significant value untapped. This book is a guide for creating and implementing value-enhancing flexibility in design. It will be an essential resource for all participants in the development and operation of technological systems: designers, managers, financial analysts, investors, regulators, and academics. The book provides a high-level overview of why flexibility in design is needed to deliver significantly increased value. It describes in detail methods to identify, select, and implement useful flexibility. The book is unique in that it explicitly recognizes that future outcomes are uncertain. It thus presents forecasting, analysis, and evaluation tools especially suited to this reality. Appendixes provide expanded explanations of concepts and analytic tools.
This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
"Cognisant of the many facets of climate change, this report looks through the lens of economics, that is, the social science that measures the economic impact of climate change and the costs and benefits of trying to mitigate it and adapt to it. From an investment perspective, issues for study include the balance between investment in mitigating greenhouse-gas emissions and adaptation to climate change; the urgency and timing of investing in both; obstacles to investment; and policies to remove them and make investment profitable. From a growth perspective, issues of interest include the link between climate action and economic growth; the short-term and the long-term dimensions of this link; and the importance of innovation as an interface between climate action and economic growth. One of the key messages from this report is that there is unexploited scope for making Europe's climate action more efficient, growth-friendly, and in tune with fiscal constraints."--publisher's description.
A climate catastrophe can be avoided, but only with a rapid and sustained investment in companies and projects that reduce greenhouse gas emissions. To the surprise of many, this has already begun. Investors are abandoning fossil-fuel companies and other polluting industries and financing businesses offering climate solutions. Rising risks, evolving social norms, government policies, and technological innovation are all accelerating this movement of capital. Bruce Usher offers an indispensable guide to the risks and opportunities for investors as the world faces climate change. He explores the role that investment plays in reducing emissions to net zero by 2050, detailing how to finance the winners and avoid the losers in a transforming global economy. Usher argues that careful examination of climate solutions will offer investors a new and necessary lens on the future for their own financial benefit and for the greater good. Companies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions will create great wealth, and, more importantly, they will provide a lifeline for humanity. Grounded in academic and industry research, Usher’s insights bring clarity to a complex and controversial topic while illuminating the people behind the numbers. This book sets out a practical and actionable plan for investors that will alter the course of climate change.
The failure of the Copenhagen climate conference in December 2009 revealed major flaws in the way the world's policy makers have attempted to prevent dangerous levels of increases in global temperatures. The expert authors in this specially commissioned collection focus on the likely costs and benefits of a very wide range of policy options, including geo-engineering, mitigation of CO2, methane and 'black carbon', expanding forest, research and development of low-carbon energy and encouraging green technology transfer. For each policy, authors outline all of the costs, benefits and likely outcomes, in fully referenced, clearly presented chapters accompanied by shorter, critical alternative perspectives. To further stimulate debate, a panel of economists, including three Nobel laureates, evaluate and rank the attractiveness of the policies. This authoritative and thought-provoking book will challenge readers to form their own conclusions about the best ways to respond to global warming.
This unique and erudite second edition can be used at three different levels – advanced undergraduate, post-graduate and doctoral. It comprehensively covers the critical issues on the economics of climate change and climate policy features and clearly identifies the specific sections each level of reader should explore. Topics include the costs and benefits of adaptation and mitigation, discounting, uncertainty, policy instruments, and international agreements. Lectures can be combined with exercises, guided reading, or the building and application of an integrated assessment model. The book is accompanied by a website with background material, data, opinion pieces and videos. Although primarily intended for use in the classroom, anyone with an interest in climate policy can use this text as a reference.
