Rational Choice Using Imprecise Probabilities and Utilities
Rational Choice Using Imprecise Probabilities and Utilities

Author: Paul Weirich

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2021-02-25

Total Pages: 139

ISBN-13: 1108604781

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An agent often does not have precise probabilities or utilities to guide resolution of a decision problem. I advance a principle of rationality for making decisions in such cases. To begin, I represent the doxastic and conative state of an agent with a set of pairs of a probability assignment and a utility assignment. Then I support a decision principle that allows any act that maximizes expected utility according to some pair of assignments in the set. Assuming that computation of an option's expected utility uses comprehensive possible outcomes that include the option's risk, no consideration supports a stricter requirement.

Commitment and Resoluteness in Rational Choice
Commitment and Resoluteness in Rational Choice

Author: Chrisoula Andreou

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2022-03-03

Total Pages: 101

ISBN-13: 1009211560

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Drawing and building on the existing literature, this Element explores the interesting and challenging philosophical terrain where issues regarding cooperation, commitment, and control intersect. Section 1 discusses interpersonal and intrapersonal Prisoner's Dilemma situations, and the possibility of a set of unrestrained choices adding up in a way that is problematic relative to the concerns of the choosers involved. Section 2 focuses on the role of precommitment devices in rational choice. Section 3 considers the role of resoluteness in rational choice and action. And Section 4 delves into some related complications concerning the nature of actions and the nature of intentions.

The Measurement of Subjective Probability
The Measurement of Subjective Probability

Author: Edward J. R. Elliott

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2024-05-02

Total Pages: 105

ISBN-13: 1009401300

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Beliefs come in degrees, and we often represent those degrees with numbers. We might say, for example, that we are 90% confident in the truth of some scientific hypothesis, or only 30% confident in the success of some risky endeavour. But what do these numbers mean? What, in other words, is the underlying psychological reality to which the numbers correspond? And what constitutes a meaningful difference between numerically distinct representations of belief? In this Element, we discuss the main approaches to the measurement of belief. These fall into two broad categories-epistemic and decision-theoretic-with divergent foundations in the theory of measurement. Epistemic approaches explain the measurement of belief by appeal to relations between belief states themselves, whereas decision-theoretic approaches appeal to relations between beliefs and desires in the production of choice and preferences.

Realistic Decision Theory
Realistic Decision Theory

Author: Paul Weirich

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Published: 2004-09-16

Total Pages: 278

ISBN-13: 0190291117

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Within traditional decision theory, common decision principles -- e.g. the principle to maximize utility -- generally invoke idealization; they govern ideal agents in ideal circumstances. In Realistic Decision Theory, Paul Weirch adds practicality to decision theory by formulating principles applying to nonideal agents in nonideal circumstances, such as real people coping with complex decisions. Bridging the gap between normative demands and psychological resources, Realistic Decision Theory is essential reading for theorists seeking precise normative decision principles that acknowledge the limits and difficulties of human decision-making.

Phylogenetic Trees and Molecular Evolution
Phylogenetic Trees and Molecular Evolution

Author: David R. Bickel

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2022-09-29

Total Pages: 112

ISBN-13: 3031119584

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This book serves as a brief introduction to phylogenetic trees and molecular evolution for biologists and biology students. It does so by presenting the main concepts in a variety of ways: first visually, then in a history, next in a dice game, and finally in simple equations. The content is primarily designed to introduce upper-level undergraduate and graduate students of biology to phylogenetic tree reconstruction and the underlying models of molecular evolution. A unique feature also of interest to experienced researchers is the emphasis on simple ways to quantify the uncertainty in the results more fully than is possible with standard methods.

Preference Change
Preference Change

Author: David Strohmaier

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2024-01-31

Total Pages: 166

ISBN-13: 1009192132

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For most of its history, decision theory has investigated the rational choices of humans under the assumption of static preferences. Human preferences, however, change. In recent years, decision theory has increasingly acknowledged the reality of preference change throughout life. This Element provides an accessible introduction and new contributions to the debates on preference change. It is divided into three chapters. In the first chapter, the authors discuss what preference change is and whether we can integrate it into decision theory. In the second chapter, they present models of preference change, including a novel proposal of their own. In the third and final chapter, they discuss how we can rationally choose a course of action when our preferences might change. Both the transformative experience literature and recent work on choosing for changing selves are discussed.

Rational Responses to Risks
Rational Responses to Risks

Author: Paul Weirich

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Published: 2020-07-10

Total Pages: 288

ISBN-13: 0190089423

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Good decisions account for risks. For example, the risk of an accident while driving in the rain makes a reasonable driver decide to slow down. While risk is a large topic in theoretical disciplines such as economics and psychology, as well as in practical disciplines such as medicine and finance, philosophy has a unique contribution to make in developing a normative theory of risk that states what risk is, and to what extent our responses to it are rational. Weirich here develops a philosophical theory of the rationality of responses to risk. He first distinguishes two types of risk: first, a chance of a bad event, and second, an act's risk in relation to its possible outcomes. He argues that this distinction has normative significance in the sense that one's attitudes towards these types of risks - and how one acts on them - are governed by different general principles of rationality. Consequently, a comprehensive account of risk must not only characterize rational responses to risk but also explain why these responses are rational. Weirich explains how, for a rational ideal agent, the expected utilities of the acts available in a decision problem explain the agent's preferences among the acts. As a result, maximizing expected utility is just following preferences among the acts. His view takes an act's expected utility, not just as a feature of a representation of preferences among acts, but also as a factor in the explanation of preferences among acts. The book's precise formulation of general standards of rationality for attitudes and for acts, and its rigorous argumentation for these standards, make it philosophical; but while mainly of interest to philosophers, its broader arguments will contribute to the conceptual foundations of studies of risk in all disciplines that study it.

Money-Pump Arguments
Money-Pump Arguments

Author: Johan E. Gustafsson

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2022-10-13

Total Pages: 116

ISBN-13: 110860496X

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Suppose that you prefer A to B, B to C, and C to A. Your preferences violate Expected Utility Theory by being cyclic. Money-pump arguments offer a way to show that such violations are irrational. Suppose that you start with A. Then you should be willing to trade A for C and then C for B. But then, once you have B, you are offered a trade back to A for a small cost. Since you prefer A to B, you pay the small sum to trade from B to A. But now you have been turned into a money pump. You are back to the alternative you started with but with less money. This Element shows how each of the axioms of Expected Utility Theory can be defended by money-pump arguments of this kind. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.

Political Party Financing and Electoral Politics in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic
Political Party Financing and Electoral Politics in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic

Author: Babayo Sule

Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield

Published: 2023-03-17

Total Pages: 291

ISBN-13: 1666919225

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In Political Party Financing and Electoral Politics in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic, Babayo Sule provides a detailed analysis of the process of political party financing in Nigeria from 1999 to the present. Sule links the party financing process with the electoral process and explores issues of democratic accountability, transparency, and corruption in Nigeria under democratic rule. Issues of excessive spending, violation of legal procedures for party financing and monitoring of parties’ activities, particularly, finances are explored. The book presents an analytical discourse on elections and processes that influence an election in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic in which party financing and money politics are instrumental. This book observes how political corruption gains root in the process of party financing and builds a theory linking party financing, electoral politics, and democratic accountability. This book provides practical policy implications for strengthening Nigeria’s electoral process and transparency in its democracy.

A Plea for Plausibility
A Plea for Plausibility

Author: John R. Welch

Publisher: Taylor & Francis

Published: 2023-03-17

Total Pages: 247

ISBN-13: 1000852768

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This book develops an original theory of decision-making based on the concept of plausibility. The author advocates plausible reasoning as a general philosophical method and demonstrates how it can be applied to problems in argumentation theory, scientific theory choice, risk management, ethics, law, economics, and epistemology. Human decisions are conditioned by formidable uncertainty. The standard resource for dealing rationally with uncertainty is the mathematical concept of probability. The probability calculus is well-known, but since the numerical demands for applying it cannot usually be met, it is not widely applicable. By contrast, the concept of plausibility is widely applicable, but it is little known. This book relies on a generalized concept of plausibility whose strength is its adaptability. The adaptability is due to a novel form of decision theory that takes plausibilities as inputs. This form of decision theory remains applicable to decisions informed by sharp probabilities and utilities, but it can also be applied to decisions that must be made without them. It can aid in the rationally critical enterprise of discriminating good arguments from bad, and this can foster philosophical progress. A Plea for Plausibility will be of interest to scholars and advanced students working in argumentation theory, philosophy of science, ethics, epistemology, economics, law, and risk management.