Taiwan has a special status for the United States, as both a leading high-technology economic partner and a place of political and security concern. The authors look at both the quantitative and qualitative evidence on the potential effects of a US-Taiwan free trade agreement (FTA), both for maximizing US economic benefits and for securing a prosperous and secure future for Taiwan. Their analysis indicates that the direct economic benefits of a prospective FTA would be modest and that the FTA could be most valuable to the United States if it leads Taiwan toward greater regional integration.
Taiwan has a special status for the United States, as both a leading high-technology economic partner and a place of political and security concern. The authors look at both the quantitative and qualitative evidence on the potential effects of a US-Taiwan free trade agreement (FTA), both for maximizing US economic benefits and for securing a prosperous and secure future for Taiwan. Their analysis indicates that the direct economic benefits of a prospective FTA would be modest and that the FTA could be most valuable to the United States if it leads Taiwan toward greater regional integration.
China and Taiwan have built one of the most intertwined and important economic relationships in the world, and yet that relationship is not mutually open, compliant with World Trade Organization norms, or even fully institutionalized. What's more, despite massive trade and investment flows, the boundary between the two is a serious flashpoint for potential conflict. But leaders in Beijing and Taipei have committed to normalize and deepen their economic intercourse and open a new post-Cold War era in their relationship. While the political significance of this gambit has captured attention worldwide, the scope of opening intended and the bilateral, regional, and global effects likely to ensue are as yet poorly understood. This volume attempts to remedy that uncertainty with careful modeling combined with a qualitative assessment of the implications of the cross-strait economic opening now agreed in an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA). The study explores the implications for Taiwan and China, for their neighbors, and for the United States if this undertaking is fully implemented by 2020.
Taiwan "is becoming the most dangerous flash point in the world for a possible war that involves the United States, China, and probably other major powers," warn Robert D. Blackwill, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy, and Philip Zelikow, University of Virginia White Burkett Miller professor of history. In a new Council Special Report, The United States, China, and Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War, the authors argue that the United States should change and clarify its strategy to prevent war over Taiwan. "The U.S. strategic objective regarding Taiwan should be to preserve its political and economic autonomy, its dynamism as a free society, and U.S.-allied deterrence-without triggering a Chinese attack on Taiwan." "We do not think it is politically or militarily realistic to count on a U.S. military defeat of various kinds of Chinese assaults on Taiwan, uncoordinated with allies. Nor is it realistic to presume that, after such a frustrating clash, the United States would or should simply escalate to some sort of wide-scale war against China with comprehensive blockades or strikes against targets on the Chinese mainland." "If U.S. campaign plans postulate such unrealistic scenarios," the authors add, "they will likely be rejected by an American president and by the U.S. Congress." But, they observe, "the resulting U.S. paralysis would not be the result of presidential weakness or timidity. It might arise because the most powerful country in the world did not have credible options prepared for the most dangerous military crisis looming in front of it." Proposing "a realistic strategic objective for Taiwan, and the associated policy prescriptions, to sustain the political balance that has kept the peace for the last fifty years," the authors urge the Joe Biden administration to affirm that it is not trying to change Taiwan's status; work with its allies, especially Japan, to prepare new plans that could challenge Chinese military moves against Taiwan and help Taiwan defend itself, yet put the burden of widening a war on China; and visibly plan, beforehand, for the disruption and mobilization that could follow a wider war, but without assuming that such a war would or should escalate to the Chinese, Japanese, or American homelands. "The horrendous global consequences of a war between the United States and China, most likely over Taiwan, should preoccupy the Biden team, beginning with the president," the authors conclude.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks attempt to link together at least nine countries in three continents to create a 'high-quality, twenty-first century agreement'. Such an agreement is intended to open markets to competition between the partners more than ever before in sectors ranging from goods and services to investment, and includes rigorous rules in the fields of intellectual property, labour protection and environmental conservation. The TPP also aims to improve regulatory coherence, enhance production supply chains and help boost small and medium-sized enterprises. It could transform relations with regions such as Latin America, paving the way to an eventual Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific, or see innovations translated into the global trade regulatory system operating under the WTO. However, given the tensions between strategic and economic concerns, the final deal could still collapse into something closer to a standard, 'twentieth-century' trade agreement.
For centuries, various great powers have both exploited and benefited Taiwan, shaping its multiple and frequently contradictory identities. Offering a narrative of the island's political history, the author contends that it is best understood as a continuous struggle for security.
In this conference volume, distinguished economists and trade policymakers address the US initiatives to enter into free trade negotiations with a broad range of countries in the Asia-Pacific region, the Western Hemisphere, and Africa. The sheer number of these initiatives is unprecedented and has provoked major policy questions concerning US interests in the negotiations, the setting of priorities among the many contenders for concluding free trade agreements (FTAs) with the United States, the objectives of those trading partners, and the implications that these agreements could have for broader initiatives such as the Doha Round in the World Trade Organization and the Free Trade Area of the Americas. The papers in the volume were presented during a conference on FTAs and US trade policy, sponsored by the Institute in May 2003. The editor, Jeffrey Schott, summarizes the policy implications drawn from the conference papers and discussions, which are organized around several topics: the conceptual case for FTAs and how they have worked in the past; what FTAs imply for the broader global system; the specific agreements that are already being pursued (Australia, Central America, Morocco, southern Africa) or considered (ASEAN, Brazil, Egypt, Korea, and Taiwan). The volume includes a technical appendix with results of GTAP and gravity model simulations of the trade and welfare effects of the prospective agreements.
Deep trade agreements (DTAs) cover not just trade but additional policy areas, such as international flows of investment and labor and the protection of intellectual property rights and the environment. Their goal is integration beyond trade or deep integration. These agreements matter for economic development. Their rules influence how countries (and hence, the people and firms that live and operate within them) transact, invest, work, and ultimately, develop. Trade and investment regimes determine the extent of economic integration, competition rules affect economic efficiency, intellectual property rights matter for innovation, and environmental and labor rules contribute to environmental and social outcomes. This Handbook provides the tools and data needed to analyze these new dimensions of integration and to assess the content and consequences of DTAs. The Handbook and the accompanying database are the result of collaboration between experts in different policy areas from academia and other international organizations, including the International Trade Centre (ITC), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), and World Trade Organization (WTO).
This study describes the experiences of foreign-invested firms in the mainland Chinese economy and discusses the implications of those experiences for the foreign commercial policies of the industrial countries, including the United States. It draws on extensive interviews with expatriate managers and other professionals currently at work in China. Whereas recent books on Chinese marketplace conditions focus on a single firm or issue or lack a discussion of policy conclusions (because they are prepared for a commercial audience), this study is distinguished by the breadth of industry interviews and its concern for policy implications. Rosen makes a rare attempt to deduce the policy implications of current experiences of foreign firms in China, presenting conclusions that go beyond those found in today's usual policy debate. Behind the Open Door is a must for China specialists and should be read by anyone with general or business interests in China or the Asia-Pacific region. The book is an ideal text for MBA programs that focus on the region, and for political science and Asian studies courses on China.
