Prognostics is the science of making predictions of engineering systems. It is part of a suite of techniques that determine whether a system is behaving within nominal operational performance and - if it does not - that determine what is wrong and how long it will take until the system no longer fulfills certain functional requirements. This book presents the latest developments and research findings on the topic of prognostics by the Prognostics Center of Excellence at NASA Ames Research Center. The book is intended to provide a practitioner with an understanding of the foundational concepts as well as practical tools to perform prognostics and health management on different types of engineering systems and in particular to predict remaining useful life.
This book introduces the methods for predicting the future behavior of a system’s health and the remaining useful life to determine an appropriate maintenance schedule. The authors introduce the history, industrial applications, algorithms, and benefits and challenges of PHM (Prognostics and Health Management) to help readers understand this highly interdisciplinary engineering approach that incorporates sensing technologies, physics of failure, machine learning, modern statistics, and reliability engineering. It is ideal for beginners because it introduces various prognostics algorithms and explains their attributes, pros and cons in terms of model definition, model parameter estimation, and ability to handle noise and bias in data, allowing readers to select the appropriate methods for their fields of application.Among the many topics discussed in-depth are:• Prognostics tutorials using least-squares• Bayesian inference and parameter estimation• Physics-based prognostics algorithms including nonlinear least squares, Bayesian method, and particle filter• Data-driven prognostics algorithms including Gaussian process regression and neural network• Comparison of different prognostics algorithms divThe authors also present several applications of prognostics in practical engineering systems, including wear in a revolute joint, fatigue crack growth in a panel, prognostics using accelerated life test data, fatigue damage in bearings, and more. Prognostics tutorials with a Matlab code using simple examples are provided, along with a companion website that presents Matlab programs for different algorithms as well as measurement data. Each chapter contains a comprehensive set of exercise problems, some of which require Matlab programs, making this an ideal book for graduate students in mechanical, civil, aerospace, electrical, and industrial engineering and engineering mechanics, as well as researchers and maintenance engineers in the above fields.
This book proposes the formulation of an efficient methodology that estimates energy system uncertainty and predicts Remaining Useful Life (RUL) accurately with significantly reduced RUL prediction uncertainty. Renewable and non-renewable sources of energy are being used to supply the demands of societies worldwide. These sources are mainly thermo-chemo-electro-mechanical systems that are subject to uncertainty in future loading conditions, material properties, process noise, and other design parameters.It book informs the reader of existing and new ideas that will be implemented in RUL prediction of energy systems in the future. The book provides case studies, illustrations, graphs, and charts. Its chapters consider engineering, reliability, prognostics and health management, probabilistic multibody dynamical analysis, peridynamic and finite-element modelling, computer science, and mathematics.
Industrial Prognostics predicts an industrial systems lifespan using probability measurements to determine the way a machine operates. Prognostics are essential in determining being able to predict and stop failures before they occur. Therefore the development of dependable prognostic procedures for engineering systems is important to increase the systems performance and reliability. Diagnostics and Prognostics of Engineering Systems: Methods and Techniques provides widespread coverage and discussions on the methods and techniques of diagnosis and prognosis systems. Including practical examples to display the methods effectiveness in real-world applications as well as the latest trends and research, this reference source aims to introduce fundamental theory and practice for system diagnosis and prognosis.
This book addresses the steps needed to monitor health assessment systems and the anticipation of their failures: choice and location of sensors, data acquisition and processing, health assessment and prediction of the duration of residual useful life. The digital revolution and mechatronics foreshadowed the advent of the 4.0 industry where equipment has the ability to communicate. The ubiquity of sensors (300,000 sensors in the new generations of aircraft) produces a flood of data requiring us to give meaning to information and leads to the need for efficient processing and a relevant interpretation. The process of traceability and capitalization of data is a key element in the context of the evolution of the maintenance towards predictive strategies.
Recent scholarship on the Anglo-Saxon prognostics has tried to place these texts within the realm of folklore and medicine, inspired largely by studies and editions from the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. By analysing prognostic material in its manuscript context, this book offers a novel approach to the status and purpose of prognostic texts in the early Middle Ages with particular attention to the Anglo-Saxon tradition. From this perspective, it emerges that prognostication in Anglo-Saxon England was not folkloric but a scholarly pursuit by monks not primarily interested in the medical aspects of prognostication. In addition, this book offers, for the first time, a comprehensive edition of prognostics in Old English and Latin from Anglo-Saxon and early post-Conquest manuscripts. Brill's Texts and Sources in Intellectual History, vol. 3
In the age of digitalization and the fourth industrial revolution, predictive maintenance is becoming increasingly important as a proactive maintenance type. Despite the economic benefits that predictive maintenance generates for companies, its practical application is still in its early stages. This is often due to two prevailing challenges. First, there is a deficiency of knowledge about predictive maintenance and its concrete realization. Second, there is a lack of high quality and rich data of historical machine failures. To increase the representativeness of data, data from several similar machines (i.e. a fleet) should be considered. To foster the effective implementation of predictive maintenance, supportive guidance in the realization of a predictive maintenance project is needed. For this reason, this dissertation presents a process reference model and a development method for fleet prognostics. The process reference model describes a comprehensive and application-independent view of the complete predictive maintenance process. The model is supplemented by the fleet prognostic development method. To address the specific characteristics of the fleet, a systematic process is depicted which provides a means to assess the heterogeneity of the fleet from a data-driven perspective and simplifies the design of an algorithm considering fleet data. Finally, the applicability and value of the research results are demonstrated with three industrial cases
A comprehensive guide to the application and processing of condition-based data to produce prognostic estimates of functional health and life. Prognostics and Health Management provides an authoritative guide for an understanding of the rationale and methodologies of a practical approach for improving system reliability using conditioned-based data (CBD) to the monitoring and management of health of systems. This proven approach uses electronic signatures extracted from conditioned-based electrical signals, including those representing physical components, and employs processing methods that include data fusion and transformation, domain transformation, and normalization, canonicalization and signal-level translation to support the determination of predictive diagnostics and prognostics. Written by noted experts in the field, Prognostics and Health Management clearly describes how to extract signatures from conditioned-based data using conditioning methods such as data fusion and transformation, domain transformation, data type transformation and indirect and differential comparison. This important resource: Integrates data collecting, mathematical modelling and reliability prediction in one volume Contains numerical examples and problems with solutions that help with an understanding of the algorithmic elements and processes Presents information from a panel of experts on the topic Follows prognostics based on statistical modelling, reliability modelling and usage modelling methods Written for system engineers working in critical process industries and automotive and aerospace designers, Prognostics and Health Management offers a guide to the application of condition-based data to produce signatures for input to predictive algorithms to produce prognostic estimates of functional health and life.
PHM Society established International Journal of Prognostics and Health Management (IJPHM) in 2009 to facilitate archival publication of peer-reviewed results from research and development in the area of PHM. As a journal solely dedicated to the emerging field of PHM IJPHM is the first of its kind and has been a focal point for dissemination of peer-reviewed PHM knowledge. While for the first few years the journal maintained only an online presence, the printed volumes will now be available and can be obtained upon request.
PHM Society established International Journal of Prognostics and Health Management (IJPHM) in 2009 to facilitate archival publication of peer-reviewed results from research and development in the area of PHM. As a journal solely dedicated to the emerging field of PHM IJPHM is the first of its kind and has been a focal point for dissemination of peer-reviewed PHM knowledge. While for the first few years the journal maintained only an online presence, the printed volumes will now be available and can be obtained upon request. The first IJPHM volume came out in 2010 with three research papers that discussed the key issue of PHM performance that is still relevant to the maturing field of PHM.
