Sectoral Impact and Propagation of Weather Shocks
Sectoral Impact and Propagation of Weather Shocks

Author: Guglielmo Zappalà

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2023-03-10

Total Pages: 85

ISBN-13:

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Local weather shocks have been shown to affect local economic output, however, little is known about their propagation through production networks. Using a six-sector global dataset over the past fifty years, this paper examines the effect of weather fluctuations and extreme weather events on sectoral economic production and the transmission of weather shocks across sectors, countries and over time. I document that agriculture is the most harmed sector by heat shocks, droughts and cyclones. Using input-output interlinkages, I find that sectors at later stages of the supply chain suffer from substantial and persistent losses over time due to domestic and foreign heat shocks in other sectors. A counterfactual analysis of the average annual output loss accounting for heat shocks across trade partners shows a substantial underestimation of the economic cost of temperature increases since 2000.

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015
NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015

Author: Martin Eichenbaum

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2016-06-22

Total Pages: 517

ISBN-13: 022639574X

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This year, the NBER Macroeconomics Annual celebrates its thirtieth volume. The first two papers examine China’s macroeconomic development. “Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy” by Chun Chang, Kaiji Chen, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha outlines the key characteristics of growth and business cycles in China. “Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom” by Hanming Fang, Quanlin Gu, Wei Xiong, and Li-An Zhou constructs a new house price index, showing that Chinese house prices have grown by ten percent per year over the past decade. The third paper, “External and Public Debt Crises” by Cristina Arellano, Andrew Atkeson, and Mark Wright, asks why there appear to be large differences across countries and subnational jurisdictions in the effect of rising public debts on economic outcomes. The fourth, “Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration” by Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit, and William Kerr, explains how the network structure of the US economy propagates the effect of gross output productivity shocks across upstream and downstream sectors. The fifth and sixth papers investigate the usefulness of surveys of household’s beliefs for understanding economic phenomena. “Expectations and Investment,” by Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, and Andrei Shleifer, demonstrates that a chief financial officer's expectations of a firm's future earnings growth is related to both the planned and actual future investment of that firm. “Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation” by Regis Barnichon and Andrew Figura shows that an increasing number of prime-age Americans who are not in the labor force report no desire to work and that this decline accelerated during the second half of the 1990s.

Assessing the Fragility of Global Trade
Assessing the Fragility of Global Trade

Author: Ms.Yevgeniya Korniyenko

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-02-13

Total Pages: 38

ISBN-13: 1475578512

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Anecdotal evidence suggests the existence of specific choke points in the global trade network revealed especially after natural disasters (e.g. hard drive components and Thailand flooding, Japanese auto components post-Fukushima, etc.). Using a highly disaggregated international trade database we assess the spillover effects of supply shocks from the import of specific goods. Our goal is to identify inherent vulnerabilities arising from the composition of a country’s import basket and to propose effective mitigation policies. First, using network analysis tools we develop a methodology for evaluating and ranking the supply fragility of individual traded goods. Next, we create a country-level measure to determine each country’s supply shock vulnerability based on the composition of their individual import baskets. This measure evaluates the potential negative supply shock spillovers from the import of each good.

Research Handbook on Alternative Finance
Research Handbook on Alternative Finance

Author: Franklin Allen

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

Published: 2024-04-12

Total Pages: 367

ISBN-13: 1800370490

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Promoting a comparative perspective, this comprehensive Research Handbook aids in the understanding of alternative finance and its values in a global setting. Readers are encouraged to view alternative finance through the lens of economic mechanisms rather than terminology.

Economic Networks
Economic Networks

Author: Thomas J. Sargent

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2024-04-25

Total Pages: 265

ISBN-13: 1009456377

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It has become increasingly clear that economies can fruitfully be viewed as networks, consisting of millions of nodes (households, firms, banks, etc.) connected by business, social, and legal relationships. These relationships shape many outcomes that economists often measure. Over the past few years, research on production networks has flourished, as economists try to understand supply-side dynamics, default cascades, aggregate fluctuations, and many other phenomena. Economic Networks provides a brisk introduction to network analysis that is self-contained, rigorous, and illustrated with many figures, diagrams and listings with computer code. Network methods are put to work analyzing production networks, financial networks, and other related topics (including optimal transport, another highly active research field). Visualizations using recent data bring key ideas to life.

Asia and Global Production Networks
Asia and Global Production Networks

Author: Benno Ferrarini

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

Published: 2014-10-31

Total Pages: 393

ISBN-13: 178347209X

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This timely book deploys new tools and measures to understand how global production networks change the nature of global economic interdependence, and how that in turn changes our understanding of which policies are appropriate in this new environment.

Assessing the Impact of Supply Disruptions on the Global Pandemic Recovery
Assessing the Impact of Supply Disruptions on the Global Pandemic Recovery

Author: Harri Kemp

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2023-02-24

Total Pages: 42

ISBN-13:

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We estimate the role of (pre-Ukraine war) supply disruptions in constraining the Covid-19 pandemic recovery, for several advanced economies and emerging markets, and globally. We rely on two approaches. In the first approach, we use sign-restricted Vector Auto Regressions (SVAR) to identify supply and demand shocks in manufacturing, based on the co-movement of surveys on new orders and suppliers’ delivery times. The effects of these shocks on industrial production and GDP are recovered through a combination of local projection methods and the input-output framework in Acemoglu et al. (2016). In the second approach, we use the IMF’s G20 model to gauge the importance of supply shocks in jointly driving activity and inflation surprises. We find that supply disruptions subtracted between 0.5 and 1.2 percent from global value added during the global recovery in 2021, while also adding about 1 percent to global core inflation that same year.

The Oxford Handbook of Supply Chain Management
The Oxford Handbook of Supply Chain Management

Author: Thomas Y. Choi

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Published: 2021-09-13

Total Pages: 857

ISBN-13: 0190066725

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"Abstract: Supply chain management contends with structures and processes for delivering goods and services to customers. It addresses the core functions of connected businesses to meet downstream demand. This innovative volume provides an authoritative and timely guide to the overarching issues that are ubiquitous throughout the supply chain. In particular, it addresses emerging issues that are applicable across supply chains-such as data science, financial flows, human capital, internet technologies, risk management, cyber security, and supply networks. With chapters from an international roster of leading scholars in the field, The Oxford Handbook of Supply Chain Management is a necessary resource for all students and researchers of the field as well as for forward-thinking practitioners. Keywords: supply chain management; value; human society; goods and services; competitive advantage; people and welfare; data and technology; moving goods and services; structure and strategy; growing and sustaining"--

Sectoral Shocks and Spillovers: An Application to COVID-19
Sectoral Shocks and Spillovers: An Application to COVID-19

Author: Mr. Sonali Das

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-07-30

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13: 1513587390

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This paper examines the role of sectoral spillovers in propagating sectoral shocks in the broader economy, both in the past and during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we study how shocks that occur within a sector itself and spillovers from shocks to other sectors affect sectoral activity, for a large sample of countries from 1995 to 2014. We find that both supply and demand shocks—measured as changes in, respectively, productivity and government purchases at the sector level—have large spillover effects on sector-level gross value added and on a sector’s share of the economy. We then use these historical estimates, together with the network structure of global production, to quantify the spillovers from the economic shock associated with the pandemic. We find spillover effects to be sizeable, making up a significant fraction of the overall decline in activity in 2020.Our results have implications for the design of policies with a sectoral dimension.

Beyond Energy: Inflationary Effects of Metals Price Shocks in Production Networks
Beyond Energy: Inflationary Effects of Metals Price Shocks in Production Networks

Author: Jorge Miranda-Pinto

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2024-10-22

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13:

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We examine the role of metals as economic inputs by using a production network model, calibrated for various countries using input-output (I-O) tables. Empirically, we employ local projections to study how metal shocks influence inflation, testing country-level heterogeneity in the sensitivity to these shocks. Our findings indicate that metals price shocks have significant and persistent effects on core and headline inflation, with particularly pronounced effects on countries that are highly exposed to metals in their production networks. This is in contrasts to oil supply shocks, which predominantly affect headline inflation. A shift of the global economy towards a higher relative metals intensity due to the energy transition could lead to commodity price shocks increasingly influencing core rather than headline inflation. This could make commodity price shocks less visible on impact but more persistent. Central banks should consider this shift when assessing inflation dynamics and risks.