Stopping a plague (even zombies), tomorrows likelihood of rain, and buying a lottery ticket are united by chance. Wildlife conservation, a baseball box score, and governmental spending are united by the need to record numbers. Statistics and probability measure the current state of something and the relative likelihood of potential future states. This book will explore how common experiences are counted, evaluated, and used to make intelligent decisions for the future based on uncertain outcomes.
Life can be unpredictable. And the more you can predict, the more control you will have over your own life. From calculating the health risks of smoking a pack of cigarettes a day to deciding on the best investments for your money, probabilities play a part in nearly all aspects of everyday life. Now, physics professor John D. McGervey puts all the facts and figures at your fingertips to help you make savvy, informed choices at home, at work, and at play. You will learn how the author believes you can: * Increase your chances of winning blackjack, contract bridge, horse racing, sports betting, and more * Get the most for your dollar when investing or buying insurance * Judge the risks of such common activities as smoking, using drugs, owning a handgun, and driving without a seat belt * Avoid faulty gambling systems and identify misleading statistics that can be used to draw you into poor investments * And much more. Inside you'll find a lively, entertaining, enlightening approach to minimizing your risks and maximizing your results -- simple strategies designed to give you the edge in life.
"What distinguishes the work is how precisely it links seemingly dry mathematical formulas to real-life examples." "[A] fascinating read for anyone who has ever wondered how to strike the right balance in circumstances that are inherently unknowable." "A mathematically supported, engaging read on how probabilities are frequently used, misunderstood and creatively applied to shape our daily lives." "[W]ill help readers understand the scope and complexity of the world in which we live." -Kirkus Reviews No one gets every decision in life right, but there is a way to get more of them right than you used to. The purpose of this book is to change how you view the world. It is an explanation of the concepts behind probability theory in plain English. It is intended for people who realize that probability theory is an important subject, but who shy away from formulas and mathematical symbols. Dr. Robert A. Hitlin has taught research techniques and statistics, and conducted sample surveys, statistical research projects, and focus groups for over 45 years. He was a professor of Political Science at Georgetown University and American University, and has taught part time at Vanderbilt University, George Washington University and The University of Maryland. He was voted the "Teacher of the Year" by the graduating seniors at Georgetown University. As President of Robert Hitlin Research Associates, Inc. he has directed and conducted hundreds of research projects for organizations in private industry, national associations, and federal, state and local governments. He has appeared frequently on radio and television as a commentator on elections and politics. He has a B.A. from Brooklyn College and a Ph.D. in Political Science from Vanderbilt University.
Life can be unpredictable. And the more you can predict, the more control you will have over your own life. From calculating the health risks of smoking a pack of cigarettes a day to deciding on the best investments for your money, probabilities play a part in nearly all aspects of everyday life. Now, physics professor John D. McGervey puts all the facts and figures at your fingertips to help you make savvy, informed choices at home, at work, and at play. You will learn how the author believes you can: * Increase your chances of winning blackjack, contract bridge, horse racing, sports betting, and more * Get the most for your dollar when investing or buying insurance * Judge the risks of such common activities as smoking, using drugs, owning a handgun, and driving without a seat belt * Avoid faulty gambling systems and identify misleading statistics that can be used to draw you into poor investments * And much more. Inside you'll find a lively, entertaining, enlightening approach to minimizing your risks and maximizing your results -- simple strategies designed to give you the edge in life.
This book presents not only the mathematical concept of probability, but also its philosophical aspects, the relativity of probability and its applications and even the psychology of probability. All explanations are made in a comprehensible manner and are supported with suggestive examples from nature and daily life, and even with challenging math paradoxes. (Mathematics)
From terrorist attacks to big money jackpots, Struck by Lightning deconstructs the odds and oddities of chance, examining both the relevant and irreverent role of randomness in our everyday lives. Human beings have long been both fascinated and appalled by randomness. On the one hand, we love the thrill of a surprise party, the unpredictability of a budding romance, or the freedom of not knowing what tomorrow will bring. We are inexplicably delighted by strange coincidences and striking similarities. But we also hate uncertainty's dark side. From cancer to SARS, diseases strike with no apparent pattern. Terrorists attack, airplanes crash, bridges collapse, and we never know if we'll be that one in a million statistic. We are all constantly faced with situations and choices that involve randomness and uncertainty. A basic understanding of the rules of probability theory, applied to real-life circumstances, can help us to make sense of these situations, to avoid unnecessary fear, to seize the opportunities that randomness presents to us, and to actually enjoy the uncertainties we face. The reality is that when it comes to randomness, you can run, but you can't hide. So many aspects of our lives are governed by events that are simply not in our control. In this entertaining yet sophisticated look at the world of probabilities, author Jeffrey Rosenthal-an improbably talented math professor-explains the mechanics of randomness and teaches us how to develop an informed perspective on probability.
In this fully revised second edition of Understanding Probability, the reader can learn about the world of probability in an informal way. The author demystifies the law of large numbers, betting systems, random walks, the bootstrap, rare events, the central limit theorem, the Bayesian approach and more. This second edition has wider coverage, more explanations and examples and exercises, and a new chapter introducing Markov chains, making it a great choice for a first probability course. But its easy-going style makes it just as valuable if you want to learn about the subject on your own, and high school algebra is really all the mathematical background you need.
Probability and statistics impinge on the life of the average person in a variety of ways OCo as is suggested by the title of this book. Very often, information is provided that is factually accurate but intended to present a biased view. This book presents the important results of probability and statistics without making heavy mathematical demands on the reader. It should enable an intelligent reader to properly assess statistical information and to understand that the same information can be presented in different ways.
