The Asian crisis of 1997 demonstrated how interconnected the global economy has become, and this work is an attempt, by an international group of contributors, to understand the financial crisis by taking into account the dynamics of private capital flows. The authors answer some of the most important questions relating to the financial crisis, and seek to find solutions to prevent such crises occurring again, including: what caused the crisis in Asian countries?; why did most analysts fail to anticipate the crisis?; why were the effects so severe?; what is the key to recovery in Asia and other crisis countries?; what can be done to prevent such a crisis from occurring again?; and how can the international system deal with such circumstances more successfully?
This paper examines the power topography of international private capital movements with specific reference to FDI and portfolio equity flows. A number of important development conclusions emerge from the paper. There exists little relationship between incomes and levels of FDI participation, although developed and resource-endowed economies have received greater inflows. While greater liberalization from the mid-1980s has stimulated the explosive growth of portfolio equity capital flows, it has also exposed developing economies to serious systemic risks. Contrary to neoliberal arguments, developing economies that have managed to utilize FDI effectively and to prevent systemic volatility generated from portfolio capital movements from seriously destabilizing them, have generally relied on effective governments. Inter-country economic development has become increasingly unequal in the period 1980-97. While the material conditions of the majority of developing economies have improved, those located in Africa and South Asia in particular have remained seriously disadvantaged.
This book analyzes the process of international financial integration and the structural forces driving private capital to developing countries. Against this background, it details the potential benefits of integration and the implications of fast-moving global capital flows for emerging economics. Examining the experience of countries that have attracted substantial private capital flows, the book provides invaluable guidance as to what works and what doesn't during the transition to financial integration. It will be of compelling interest to policymakers and also to international investors and bankers, financial analysts, and researchers.
This study provides a candid, systematic, and critical review of recent evidence on this complex subject. Based on a review of the literature and some new empirical evidence, it finds that (1) in spite of an apparently strong theoretical presumption, it is difficult to detect a strong and robust causal relationship between financial integration and economic growth; (2) contrary to theoretical predictions, financial integration appears to be associated with increases in consumption volatility (both in absolute terms and relative to income volatility) in many developing countries; and (3) there appear to be threshold effects in both of these relationships, which may be related to absorptive capacity. Some recent evidence suggests that sound macroeconomic frameworks and, in particular, good governance are both quantitatively and qualitatively important in affecting developing countries’ experiences with financial globalization.
This dissertation consists of three empirical chapters that address different aspects of private capital flows and financial crises in Asian and Latin American emerging markets.
This paper considers the new forms and roles of private capital flows to developing countries in the 1990s and appropriate national and international policy responses to the problems and possibilities they create. Section 2 describes the growth of these flows in the 1990s, their role in development and some of their effects in recipient countries. Section 3 considers alternate capital account policies for developing countries. In section 4 the possibility of improved international arrangements is considered. Section 5 contains recommendations from the previous analysis.
Since 1989, private capital flows to a select group of developing countries have increased sharply, but developments in 1994 have caused concern about the sustainability of those flows. Several highly indebted developing countries that are implementing reform are concerned that a generalized reversal - similar to episodes of capital flight in the early 1980s - might disrupt their economies and threaten economic reform. Because the surge in private capital flows coincided with a period of low international interest rates and intensive policy reform in developing countries, debate has been active about whether the surge is driven mainly by domestic (pull) or external (push) factors. Under the pull hypothesis, successful domestic policies are the key to ensuring sustainable capital inflows; under the push hypothesis, an increase in international interest rates would cause a reversal of those flows (back to the industrial world). Using a partial adjustment model in which both domestic and external variables are defined, the authors explain why private capital flows to some developing countries but not to others (using panel data for 1986-93 for 22 countries). They argue that a generalized reversal is unlikely in countries that maintain a fundamentally sound macroeconomic environment. In fact, their empirical results show that domestic factors such as domestic savings and investment ratios significantly affected the recent surge in capital inflows. Further, they suggest that countries that have not received significant foreign capital - including countries in sub-Saharan Africa - could begin to if they implemented structural reforms that allow them to export, save, and invest at higher rates. Reducing their foreign debt (which might call for a continuation of recent debt reduction operations) could also help attract foreign private investors.
