Practical Probabilistic Programming
Practical Probabilistic Programming

Author: Avi Pfeffer

Publisher: Simon and Schuster

Published: 2016-03-29

Total Pages: 650

ISBN-13: 1638352372

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Summary Practical Probabilistic Programming introduces the working programmer to probabilistic programming. In it, you'll learn how to use the PP paradigm to model application domains and then express those probabilistic models in code. Although PP can seem abstract, in this book you'll immediately work on practical examples, like using the Figaro language to build a spam filter and applying Bayesian and Markov networks, to diagnose computer system data problems and recover digital images. Purchase of the print book includes a free eBook in PDF, Kindle, and ePub formats from Manning Publications. About the Technology The data you accumulate about your customers, products, and website users can help you not only to interpret your past, it can also help you predict your future! Probabilistic programming uses code to draw probabilistic inferences from data. By applying specialized algorithms, your programs assign degrees of probability to conclusions. This means you can forecast future events like sales trends, computer system failures, experimental outcomes, and many other critical concerns. About the Book Practical Probabilistic Programming introduces the working programmer to probabilistic programming. In this book, you’ll immediately work on practical examples like building a spam filter, diagnosing computer system data problems, and recovering digital images. You’ll discover probabilistic inference, where algorithms help make extended predictions about issues like social media usage. Along the way, you’ll learn to use functional-style programming for text analysis, object-oriented models to predict social phenomena like the spread of tweets, and open universe models to gauge real-life social media usage. The book also has chapters on how probabilistic models can help in decision making and modeling of dynamic systems. What's Inside Introduction to probabilistic modeling Writing probabilistic programs in Figaro Building Bayesian networks Predicting product lifecycles Decision-making algorithms About the Reader This book assumes no prior exposure to probabilistic programming. Knowledge of Scala is helpful. About the Author Avi Pfeffer is the principal developer of the Figaro language for probabilistic programming. Table of Contents PART 1 INTRODUCING PROBABILISTIC PROGRAMMING AND FIGARO Probabilistic programming in a nutshell A quick Figaro tutorial Creating a probabilistic programming application PART 2 WRITING PROBABILISTIC PROGRAMS Probabilistic models and probabilistic programs Modeling dependencies with Bayesian and Markov networks Using Scala and Figaro collections to build up models Object-oriented probabilistic modeling Modeling dynamic systems PART 3 INFERENCE The three rules of probabilistic inference Factored inference algorithms Sampling algorithms Solving other inference tasks Dynamic reasoning and parameter learning

Foundations of Probabilistic Programming
Foundations of Probabilistic Programming

Author: Gilles Barthe

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2020-12-03

Total Pages: 583

ISBN-13: 110848851X

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This book provides an overview of the theoretical underpinnings of modern probabilistic programming and presents applications in e.g., machine learning, security, and approximate computing. Comprehensive survey chapters make the material accessible to graduate students and non-experts. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.

Bayesian Methods for Hackers
Bayesian Methods for Hackers

Author: Cameron Davidson-Pilon

Publisher: Addison-Wesley Professional

Published: 2015-09-30

Total Pages: 551

ISBN-13: 0133902927

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Master Bayesian Inference through Practical Examples and Computation–Without Advanced Mathematical Analysis Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples and intuitive explanations that have been refined after extensive user feedback. You’ll learn how to use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, choose appropriate sample sizes and priors, work with loss functions, and apply Bayesian inference in domains ranging from finance to marketing. Once you’ve mastered these techniques, you’ll constantly turn to this guide for the working PyMC code you need to jumpstart future projects. Coverage includes • Learning the Bayesian “state of mind” and its practical implications • Understanding how computers perform Bayesian inference • Using the PyMC Python library to program Bayesian analyses • Building and debugging models with PyMC • Testing your model’s “goodness of fit” • Opening the “black box” of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to see how and why it works • Leveraging the power of the “Law of Large Numbers” • Mastering key concepts, such as clustering, convergence, autocorrelation, and thinning • Using loss functions to measure an estimate’s weaknesses based on your goals and desired outcomes • Selecting appropriate priors and understanding how their influence changes with dataset size • Overcoming the “exploration versus exploitation” dilemma: deciding when “pretty good” is good enough • Using Bayesian inference to improve A/B testing • Solving data science problems when only small amounts of data are available Cameron Davidson-Pilon has worked in many areas of applied mathematics, from the evolutionary dynamics of genes and diseases to stochastic modeling of financial prices. His contributions to the open source community include lifelines, an implementation of survival analysis in Python. Educated at the University of Waterloo and at the Independent University of Moscow, he currently works with the online commerce leader Shopify.

Practical Foundations for Programming Languages
Practical Foundations for Programming Languages

Author: Robert Harper

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2016-04-04

Total Pages: 513

ISBN-13: 1107150302

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This book unifies a broad range of programming language concepts under the framework of type systems and structural operational semantics.

Probabilistic Machine Learning
Probabilistic Machine Learning

Author: Kevin P. Murphy

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2022-03-01

Total Pages: 858

ISBN-13: 0262369303

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

A detailed and up-to-date introduction to machine learning, presented through the unifying lens of probabilistic modeling and Bayesian decision theory. This book offers a detailed and up-to-date introduction to machine learning (including deep learning) through the unifying lens of probabilistic modeling and Bayesian decision theory. The book covers mathematical background (including linear algebra and optimization), basic supervised learning (including linear and logistic regression and deep neural networks), as well as more advanced topics (including transfer learning and unsupervised learning). End-of-chapter exercises allow students to apply what they have learned, and an appendix covers notation. Probabilistic Machine Learning grew out of the author’s 2012 book, Machine Learning: A Probabilistic Perspective. More than just a simple update, this is a completely new book that reflects the dramatic developments in the field since 2012, most notably deep learning. In addition, the new book is accompanied by online Python code, using libraries such as scikit-learn, JAX, PyTorch, and Tensorflow, which can be used to reproduce nearly all the figures; this code can be run inside a web browser using cloud-based notebooks, and provides a practical complement to the theoretical topics discussed in the book. This introductory text will be followed by a sequel that covers more advanced topics, taking the same probabilistic approach.

Probabilistic Graphical Models
Probabilistic Graphical Models

Author: Luis Enrique Sucar

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2020-12-23

Total Pages: 370

ISBN-13: 3030619435

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This fully updated new edition of a uniquely accessible textbook/reference provides a general introduction to probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) from an engineering perspective. It features new material on partially observable Markov decision processes, causal graphical models, causal discovery and deep learning, as well as an even greater number of exercises; it also incorporates a software library for several graphical models in Python. The book covers the fundamentals for each of the main classes of PGMs, including representation, inference and learning principles, and reviews real-world applications for each type of model. These applications are drawn from a broad range of disciplines, highlighting the many uses of Bayesian classifiers, hidden Markov models, Bayesian networks, dynamic and temporal Bayesian networks, Markov random fields, influence diagrams, and Markov decision processes. Topics and features: Presents a unified framework encompassing all of the main classes of PGMs Explores the fundamental aspects of representation, inference and learning for each technique Examines new material on partially observable Markov decision processes, and graphical models Includes a new chapter introducing deep neural networks and their relation with probabilistic graphical models Covers multidimensional Bayesian classifiers, relational graphical models, and causal models Provides substantial chapter-ending exercises, suggestions for further reading, and ideas for research or programming projects Describes classifiers such as Gaussian Naive Bayes, Circular Chain Classifiers, and Hierarchical Classifiers with Bayesian Networks Outlines the practical application of the different techniques Suggests possible course outlines for instructors This classroom-tested work is suitable as a textbook for an advanced undergraduate or a graduate course in probabilistic graphical models for students of computer science, engineering, and physics. Professionals wishing to apply probabilistic graphical models in their own field, or interested in the basis of these techniques, will also find the book to be an invaluable reference. Dr. Luis Enrique Sucar is a Senior Research Scientist at the National Institute for Astrophysics, Optics and Electronics (INAOE), Puebla, Mexico. He received the National Science Prize en 2016.

Bayesian Modeling and Computation in Python
Bayesian Modeling and Computation in Python

Author: Osvaldo A. Martin

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2021-12-28

Total Pages: 420

ISBN-13: 1000520048

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Bayesian Modeling and Computation in Python aims to help beginner Bayesian practitioners to become intermediate modelers. It uses a hands on approach with PyMC3, Tensorflow Probability, ArviZ and other libraries focusing on the practice of applied statistics with references to the underlying mathematical theory. The book starts with a refresher of the Bayesian Inference concepts. The second chapter introduces modern methods for Exploratory Analysis of Bayesian Models. With an understanding of these two fundamentals the subsequent chapters talk through various models including linear regressions, splines, time series, Bayesian additive regression trees. The final chapters include Approximate Bayesian Computation, end to end case studies showing how to apply Bayesian modelling in different settings, and a chapter about the internals of probabilistic programming languages. Finally the last chapter serves as a reference for the rest of the book by getting closer into mathematical aspects or by extending the discussion of certain topics. This book is written by contributors of PyMC3, ArviZ, Bambi, and Tensorflow Probability among other libraries.

Practical TLA+
Practical TLA+

Author: Hillel Wayne

Publisher: Apress

Published: 2018-10-11

Total Pages: 234

ISBN-13: 148423829X

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Learn how to design complex, correct programs and fix problems before writing a single line of code. This book is a practical, comprehensive resource on TLA+ programming with rich, complex examples. Practical TLA+ shows you how to use TLA+ to specify a complex system and test the design itself for bugs. You’ll learn how even a short TLA+ spec can find critical bugs. Start by getting your feet wet with an example of TLA+ used in a bank transfer system, to see how it helps you design, test, and build a better application. Then, get some fundamentals of TLA+ operators, logic, functions, PlusCal, models, and concurrency. Along the way you will discover how to organize your blueprints and how to specify distributed systems and eventual consistency. Finally, you’ll put what you learn into practice with some working case study applications, applying TLA+ to a wide variety of practical problems: from algorithm performance and data structures to business code and MapReduce. After reading and using this book, you'll have what you need to get started with TLA+ and how to use it in your mission-critical applications. What You'll LearnRead and write TLA+ specsCheck specs for broken invariants, race conditions, and liveness bugsDesign concurrency and distributed systemsLearn how TLA+ can help you with your day-to-day production work Who This Book Is For Those with programming experience who are new to design and to TLA+. /div

Probabilistic Deep Learning
Probabilistic Deep Learning

Author: Oliver Duerr

Publisher: Manning Publications

Published: 2020-11-10

Total Pages: 294

ISBN-13: 1617296074

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Probabilistic Deep Learning is a hands-on guide to the principles that support neural networks. Learn to improve network performance with the right distribution for different data types, and discover Bayesian variants that can state their own uncertainty to increase accuracy. This book provides easy-to-apply code and uses popular frameworks to keep you focused on practical applications. Summary Probabilistic Deep Learning: With Python, Keras and TensorFlow Probability teaches the increasingly popular probabilistic approach to deep learning that allows you to refine your results more quickly and accurately without much trial-and-error testing. Emphasizing practical techniques that use the Python-based Tensorflow Probability Framework, you’ll learn to build highly-performant deep learning applications that can reliably handle the noise and uncertainty of real-world data. Purchase of the print book includes a free eBook in PDF, Kindle, and ePub formats from Manning Publications. About the technology The world is a noisy and uncertain place. Probabilistic deep learning models capture that noise and uncertainty, pulling it into real-world scenarios. Crucial for self-driving cars and scientific testing, these techniques help deep learning engineers assess the accuracy of their results, spot errors, and improve their understanding of how algorithms work. About the book Probabilistic Deep Learning is a hands-on guide to the principles that support neural networks. Learn to improve network performance with the right distribution for different data types, and discover Bayesian variants that can state their own uncertainty to increase accuracy. This book provides easy-to-apply code and uses popular frameworks to keep you focused on practical applications. What's inside Explore maximum likelihood and the statistical basis of deep learning Discover probabilistic models that can indicate possible outcomes Learn to use normalizing flows for modeling and generating complex distributions Use Bayesian neural networks to access the uncertainty in the model About the reader For experienced machine learning developers. About the author Oliver Dürr is a professor at the University of Applied Sciences in Konstanz, Germany. Beate Sick holds a chair for applied statistics at ZHAW and works as a researcher and lecturer at the University of Zurich. Elvis Murina is a data scientist. Table of Contents PART 1 - BASICS OF DEEP LEARNING 1 Introduction to probabilistic deep learning 2 Neural network architectures 3 Principles of curve fitting PART 2 - MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD APPROACHES FOR PROBABILISTIC DL MODELS 4 Building loss functions with the likelihood approach 5 Probabilistic deep learning models with TensorFlow Probability 6 Probabilistic deep learning models in the wild PART 3 - BAYESIAN APPROACHES FOR PROBABILISTIC DL MODELS 7 Bayesian learning 8 Bayesian neural networks

Probabilistic Graphical Models
Probabilistic Graphical Models

Author: Daphne Koller

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2009-07-31

Total Pages: 1270

ISBN-13: 0262258358

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

A general framework for constructing and using probabilistic models of complex systems that would enable a computer to use available information for making decisions. Most tasks require a person or an automated system to reason—to reach conclusions based on available information. The framework of probabilistic graphical models, presented in this book, provides a general approach for this task. The approach is model-based, allowing interpretable models to be constructed and then manipulated by reasoning algorithms. These models can also be learned automatically from data, allowing the approach to be used in cases where manually constructing a model is difficult or even impossible. Because uncertainty is an inescapable aspect of most real-world applications, the book focuses on probabilistic models, which make the uncertainty explicit and provide models that are more faithful to reality. Probabilistic Graphical Models discusses a variety of models, spanning Bayesian networks, undirected Markov networks, discrete and continuous models, and extensions to deal with dynamical systems and relational data. For each class of models, the text describes the three fundamental cornerstones: representation, inference, and learning, presenting both basic concepts and advanced techniques. Finally, the book considers the use of the proposed framework for causal reasoning and decision making under uncertainty. The main text in each chapter provides the detailed technical development of the key ideas. Most chapters also include boxes with additional material: skill boxes, which describe techniques; case study boxes, which discuss empirical cases related to the approach described in the text, including applications in computer vision, robotics, natural language understanding, and computational biology; and concept boxes, which present significant concepts drawn from the material in the chapter. Instructors (and readers) can group chapters in various combinations, from core topics to more technically advanced material, to suit their particular needs.