Perhaps the most popular of all Institute products, selected Working Papers are now available for the first time in a print format. These papers contain the preliminary results of ongoing Institute research. The book is divided into four sections: Trade and the Global Economy, Outsourcing, Asia, and the Middle East. Included in the book are papers by Edwin M. Truman, Morris Goldstein, Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Nicholas R. Lardy, Catherine L. Mann, and Marcus Noland. Volume I contains papers from 2005. Future volumes will be published on a semi-regular schedule as material is available.
The purpose of this electronic book is to provide policymakers and their advisers with up-to-date, comprehensive analyses of the central facets of global economic imbalances and to identify and evaluate potential national and systemic responses to this challenge. To break down the many facets of this collective economic challenge, leading experts were asked to address one of the following policy-relevant questions. 1. How large are contemporary current account imbalances? Why do they persist? 2. What are the systemic costs of imbalances? 3. What are the lessons from previous attempts to rebalance the global economy? 4. What would rebalancing entail? Which policies must change? Is collective action needed? 5. What is the political viability of proposals to rebalance national economies? 6. Are new system-wide accords needed to promote rebalancing or to discourage persistent imbalances? www.voxeu.org/reports/global_imbalances.pdf
This book analyzes key international monetary issues from a macro-foundations perspective. It proposes novel frameworks to interpret macroeconomic and financial linkages for globally integrated economies, examining global imbalances, exchange rates, interest rates, international capital flows, inflation, foreign and public debt.
In the two decades since the United States became the world's only superpower, policymakers in Washington have seemingly abandoned many tools of statecraft and instead now rely on U.S. military strength as the key—and sometimes the sole—element of its global strategy. Yet economists see a world in which the salience of military power has been shrinking as greater affluence and deepening interdependence transform the global economy. In Winners without Losers, Edward J. Lincoln, a highly regarded economist, contends that the best chance the United States has of ensuring peace and prosperity—for itself and for the rest of the world—will be found at conference tables rather than on the battlefield. Shining a spotlight on foreign trade policy as an agent for political change, this cogent and well-argued book urges policymakers, the business community, and citizens to find a path to increased stability by forging stronger international economic ties. Interdependence is founded on cooperation with other nations, and in particular on multilateral institutions. Over the past five years, in particular, American policy has moved strongly away from cooperation and, in a single-minded pursuit of the "war against global terror," has largely ignored economic issues. Extending the scope of his previous work, which started with the economic transformations of postwar Japan and more recently considered the evolution of economic linkages and cooperation in East Asia, Lincoln applies regional lessons to the world stage. More than a critique of current policies, Winners without Losers argues for a transformation of American foreign policy that recognizes the new realities of the globalized world-realities that America's leaders ignore at the nation's peril.
The current account deficit of the United States is more than six percent of its gross domestic product—an all-time high. And the rest of the world, including other G7 countries such as Japan and Germany, must collectively run current account surpluses to finance this deficit. How long can such unevenness between imports and exports be sustained, and what form might their eventual reconciliation take? Putting forth scenarios ranging from a gradual correction to a crash landing for the dollar, G7 Current Account Imbalances brings together economists from around the globe to consider the origins, status, and future of those disparities. An esteemed group of collaborators here examines the role of the bursting of the dot-com bubble, the history of previous episodes of current account adjustments, and the possibility of the Euro surpassing the dollar as the leading international reserve currency. Though there are areas of broad agreement—that the imbalances will ultimately decline and that currency revaluations will be part of the solution—many areas of contention remain regarding both the dangers of imbalances and the possible forms of adjustment. This volume will be of tremendous value to economists, politicians, and business leaders alike as they look to the future of the G7 economies.
Countries blessed with abundant natural resources often seek financial and political power from their supposedly lucky status. But the potentially negative impact of natural resources on development of poor countries is captured in the phrase "the resource curse." Instead of success and prosperity, producers of gold, oil, rubber, sugar, and other commodities—many in the least developed parts of Africa and Asia—often remain mired in poverty and plagued by economic mismanagement, political authoritarianism, foreign exploitation, and violent conflict. These difficulties and the many challenges they pose for American foreign policy are the focus of this important new book. Marcus Noland and Cullen S. Hendrix review recent developments as poor countries struggle to avoid the "resource curse" but fall too often into that trap. They call for support for international efforts to encourage greater transparency and improved management of natural resource wealth and for new partnerships between the West and the developing world to "confront the curse."
The United States has once again entered into a period of large external imbalances. This study examines whether the large and growing currentaccount deficit is a problem, and if so, how problem can be solved.
In the wake of the Great Recession of 2008–09, economists feared that protectionist policies might sweep the world economy, echoing the wave of tariff escalations during the Great Depression of the 1930s. To some surprise, officials were more restrained and largely avoided traditional forms of protection (tariffs and quotas). As a result, economists underestimated the incidence of new protectionism because policymakers increasingly turned to more opaque behind-the-border nontariff barriers (NTBs). Using a combination of statistical analysis and case studies, the authors show that local content requirements (LCRs), a form of NTB, have become increasingly popular. How much was global trade actually reduced on account of LCRs? A conservative estimate might be $93 billion. Case studies featured cover the healthcare sector in Brazil, wind turbines in Canada, the automobile industry in China, solar cells and modules in India, oil and gas in Nigeria, and "Buy American" restrictions on government procurement.
This engaging and informative book covers the range of issues on which C. Fred Bergsten and the Peterson Institute have distinguished themselves over the last 25 years, including trade liberalization, exchange rate regimes, international financial architecture, debt, economic sanctions and the impact of technology and globalization. Most of the Institute's senior research staff have contributed chapters, which are both retrospective and prescriptive.
