Portfolio-analysis Methods for Assessing Capability Options
Portfolio-analysis Methods for Assessing Capability Options

Author: Paul K. Davis

Publisher: Rand Corporation

Published: 2008

Total Pages: 203

ISBN-13: 0833042149

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The research reported in this monograph is part of RAND's continuing work on practical theory and methods for capabilities-based planning in the Department of Defense (DoD) and other organizations. Its particular contribution is to describe and illustrate in some detail an analytic framework and methodology for defensewide capability-area reviews including DoD's experimental Concept Decision Reviews and related evaluations of alternatives (Krieg, 2007). The monograph also describes newly developed enabling tools -- one for generating and screening preliminary options and one for evaluating in a portfolio-analysis structure those options that pass screening. Variants of the methods can be applied for analysis across capability areas or for strategic-level defense planning, i.e., force planning to establish the overall mix and balance of capabilities. Finally, the monograph illustrates concepts with applications to the capability areas of Global Strike and Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD).

Finding Candidate Options for Investment
Finding Candidate Options for Investment

Author: Paul K. Davis

Publisher: Rand Corporation

Published: 2008-04-09

Total Pages: 87

ISBN-13: 0833044885

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Description of a methodology and a prototype tool, Building Blocks To Composite Options Tool (BCOT), for identifying investment options for defense capability areas. It ensures that a broad range of options is considered initially, then uses a screening technique to narrow the range to those meriting more-extensive assessment in a fuller portfolio-analysis framework. BCOT extends classic economics and operations-research techniques and suggests pragmatic approximations, particularly in capabilities-based planning.

Capabilities-Based Planning for Energy Security at Department of Defense Installations
Capabilities-Based Planning for Energy Security at Department of Defense Installations

Author: Constantine Samaras

Publisher: Rand Corporation

Published: 2013

Total Pages: 61

ISBN-13: 0833079131

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Department of Defense (DoD) installations rely on the commercial electricity grid for 99 percent of their electricity needs, but extensive energy delivery outages in 2012 have reinforced that the U.S. electricity grid is vulnerable to disruptions from natural hazards and actor-induced outages, such as physical or cyber attacks. In the event of a catastrophic disaster--such as a severe hurricane, massive earthquake, or large-scale terrorist attack--DoD installations would also serve as a base for emergency services. To enhance energy security, DoD has identified diversifying energy sources and increasing efficiency in DoD operations as critical goals. But how to enhance energy security across the portfolio of installations is not clear and several questions remain unanswered: Energy security for how long? Under what conditions? At what cost? The underlying analytical questions are, what critical capabilities do U.S. installations provide, and how can DoD maintain these capabilities during an energy services disruption in the most cost-effective manner? Answering these questions requires a systems approach that incorporates technological, economic, and operational uncertainties. Using portfolio analysis methods for assessing capability options, this paper presents a framework to evaluate choices among energy security strategies for DoD installations. This framework evaluates whether existing or proposed installation energy security strategies enhance DoD capabilities and evaluates strategy cost-effectiveness.

Proceedings of the 2023 3rd International Conference on Public Management and Intelligent Society (PMIS 2023)
Proceedings of the 2023 3rd International Conference on Public Management and Intelligent Society (PMIS 2023)

Author: Nadeem Akhtar

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2023-07-25

Total Pages: 1418

ISBN-13: 9464632003

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This is an open access book.The 3rd International Conference on Public Management and Intelligent Society(PMIS 2023) will be held on March 10-12, 2023 in Shanghai, China. PMIS 2021 and PMIS 2022 have been successfully held in the last 2 years, providing an academic exchange platform for participants from all over the world. The conference discussed the latest topics in the field of public management and intelligent society, and the wonderful presentations were given by invited distinguished speakers and praised by scholars. Building an intelligent society and studying public management have always been a leading and hot issue. PMIS 2023 will focus on public management in an intelligent society, technological innovation in an intelligent society and advanced intelligent transportation system to discuss further. The aim of PMIS 2023 is to bring together innovative academics and industrial experts in the field of Public Management and Intelligent Society to a common forum. The primary goal to promote research and developmental activities and another goal is to promote scientific information interchange between researchers, developers, students, and practitioners in related fields.

The George W. Bush Defense Program
The George W. Bush Defense Program

Author: Stephen J. Cimbala

Publisher: Potomac Books, Inc.

Published: 2010

Total Pages: 462

ISBN-13: 159797613X

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The events of 9/11 and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan make an obvious case for expert study of the George W. Bush defense program. During the Bush administration, the rise and fall of governments, the fates of peoples, and the very definitions of "war" and "victory" were up for discussion. The United States, with its unprecedented global military power at the dawn of the twenty-first century, created new opportunities for using foreign policy and military strategy on behalf of national and allied interests. But this power was limited, and its use against unconventional or otherwise unorthodox enemies required careful calibration of its various instruments. In this insightful series of essays edited by Stephen Cimbala, eleven academic experts prominent in the defense and security think-tank communities assess Bush's defense program. Many also have past or current experience in the U.S. government or the American armed forces. They examine Bush's defense policy and strategy across several critical issues, including Iraq, Afghanistan, terrorism, nuclear arms control, and foreign military sales. In addition, special chapters are devoted to the leadership style of former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld, to the idea of "victory" as it might apply to Bush's defense decisions, and to the best exit strategy from Iraq for the United States. The lessons learned from the successes and failures in Bush's defense policy, clearly presented in The George W. Bush Defense Program, can also be applied to the appraisal of all presidents.

Social-Behavioral Modeling for Complex Systems
Social-Behavioral Modeling for Complex Systems

Author: Paul K. Davis

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2019-03-18

Total Pages: 881

ISBN-13: 1119484979

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This volume describes frontiers in social-behavioral modeling for contexts as diverse as national security, health, and on-line social gaming. Recent scientific and technological advances have created exciting opportunities for such improvements. However, the book also identifies crucial scientific, ethical, and cultural challenges to be met if social-behavioral modeling is to achieve its potential. Doing so will require new methods, data sources, and technology. The volume discusses these, including those needed to achieve and maintain high standards of ethics and privacy. The result should be a new generation of modeling that will advance science and, separately, aid decision-making on major social and security-related subjects despite the myriad uncertainties and complexities of social phenomena. Intended to be relatively comprehensive in scope, the volume balances theory-driven, data-driven, and hybrid approaches. The latter may be rapidly iterative, as when artificial-intelligence methods are coupled with theory-driven insights to build models that are sound, comprehensible and usable in new situations. With the intent of being a milestone document that sketches a research agenda for the next decade, the volume draws on the wisdom, ideas and suggestions of many noted researchers who draw in turn from anthropology, communications, complexity science, computer science, defense planning, economics, engineering, health systems, medicine, neuroscience, physics, political science, psychology, public policy and sociology. In brief, the volume discusses: Cutting-edge challenges and opportunities in modeling for social and behavioral science Special requirements for achieving high standards of privacy and ethics New approaches for developing theory while exploiting both empirical and computational data Issues of reproducibility, communication, explanation, and validation Special requirements for models intended to inform decision making about complex social systems

Portfolio Decision Analysis
Portfolio Decision Analysis

Author: Ahti Salo

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2011-08-12

Total Pages: 410

ISBN-13: 1441999434

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Portfolio Decision Analysis: Improved Methods for Resource Allocation provides an extensive, up-to-date coverage of decision analytic methods which help firms and public organizations allocate resources to 'lumpy' investment opportunities while explicitly recognizing relevant financial and non-financial evaluation criteria and the presence of alternative investment opportunities. In particular, it discusses the evolution of these methods, presents new methodological advances and illustrates their use across several application domains. The book offers a many-faceted treatment of portfolio decision analysis (PDA). Among other things, it (i) synthesizes the state-of-play in PDA, (ii) describes novel methodologies, (iii) fosters the deployment of these methodologies, and (iv) contributes to the strengthening of research on PDA. Portfolio problems are widely regarded as the single most important application context of decision analysis, and, with its extensive and unique coverage of these problems, this book is a much-needed addition to the literature. The book also presents innovative treatments of new methodological approaches and their uses in applications. The intended audience consists of practitioners and researchers who wish to gain a good understanding of portfolio decision analysis and insights into how PDA methods can be leveraged in different application contexts. The book can also be employed in courses at the post-graduate level.

Analysis of Strategy and Strategies of Analysis
Analysis of Strategy and Strategies of Analysis

Author: David C. Gompert

Publisher: RAND Corporation

Published: 2008

Total Pages: 100

ISBN-13:

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In a fluid global security environment such as ours, assessing the costs, risks, and likely consequences of alternative national defense strategies is as hard as it is essential. The authors show how, even in the face of uncertainty, the costs and other implications of any strategy can be assessed by examining the capabilities needed by U.S. combatant commands--the chief agents of strategy--to fulfill what the strategy expects of them.

Portfolio Analysis and Management for Naval Research and Development
Portfolio Analysis and Management for Naval Research and Development

Author: Richard S. Silberglitt

Publisher: Minnesota Historical Society

Published: 2004

Total Pages: 100

ISBN-13: 9780833036810

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The Office of Naval Research (ONR) has the responsibility for defining and sponsoring research and development (R&D) necessary to support both the current and future requirements of the Navy and Marine Corps. To accomplish this mission, ONR must fund a broad spectrum of research, ranging from basic research needed to open up new options for the long-term to near-term advanced technology development to support the current fleet. Moreover, ONR must make its R&D funding decisions in the presence of uncertainty: uncertainty in required capabilities, in performance requirements, and in the feasibility of a technology or R&D approach. This monograph describes the adaptation of an R&D portfolio management (PortMan) decision framework developed by the RAND Corporation to support ONR's R&D decisionmaking, and the demonstration of its use by means of a case study evaluation of 20 sample ONR applied-research projects. PortMan computes the expected value of an R&D project as the product of three factors estimated by experts: value to the military of the capability sought through R&D, the extent to which the performance potential matches the level required to achieve the capability, and the project's transition probability. This approach allows identification of those R&D projects with high-value capabilities but formidable technical or fielding problems that remain to be solved-projects for which management attention may have the greatest leverage.

Measuring the Effectiveness of Border Security Between Ports-of-entry
Measuring the Effectiveness of Border Security Between Ports-of-entry

Author: Henry H. Willis

Publisher: Technical Report (RAND)

Published: 2010

Total Pages: 70

ISBN-13:

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This report offers research and recommendations on ways to measure the overall efforts of the national border-security enterprise between ports of entry. Focusing on three missions--illegal drug control, counterterrorism, and illegal migration--this report recommends ways to measure performance of U.S. border-security efforts in terms of interdiction, deterrence, and exploiting networked intelligence.